Global Mail Archive
1-30-24: The January Barometer Holds 2024 Promise
by Ivan Martchev January 30, 2024 As we come to the end of January, having made fresh all-time highs in the S&P 500 last week, one is reminded again of the old [...]
1-23-24: Fresh All-Time Highs Across the Board
by Ivan Martchev January 23, 2024 The wobbly start to January was the long overdue correction that we did not see in November or December, when pullbacks were one-day wonders. What we [...]
1-17-24: U.S. M2 Money Supply is Still Shrinking
by Ivan Martchev January 17, 2024 The unprecedented shrinkage in M2 money supply continues, and with it we have seen generally falling inflation numbers. The M2 shrinkage process began in December 2022 [...]
1-9-24: Why No Santa Claus Rally for the S&P 500 in 2024?
by Ivan Martchev January 9, 2024 There was no Santa Claus rally in the last week of 2023 and the first two trading days of 2024 – which mark the technical definition [...]
1-3-24: Emerging Markets are Overdue to Outperform
by Ivan Martchev January 3 , 2024 On a relative basis, the performance of the MSCI Emerging Markets Index compared to the S&P 500 has been a disaster of epic proportions since [...]
12-27-23: Awaiting the Santa Claus Rally
by Ivan Martchev December 27, 2023 As we enter the last trading days of the year and volumes are light, if we continue to see positive news, save for possible escalations in [...]
12-19-23: Fed Chair Jerome Powell Goes Full Circle
by Ivan Martchev December 19, 2023 It is hard to expect any meaningful market pullback when the Fed Chairman pretty much says that there will likely be several rate cuts coming in [...]
12-12-23: There Could be A Simple Explanation for the Dax Moonshot Move
By Ivan Martchev December 12, 2023 The German stock market has gone parabolic in an exceptionally strong move, after meandering over the summer months with sub-par economic releases due to the admission [...]
12-5-23: A “Reluctant Rotation” Has Begun
by Ivan Martchev December 5, 2023 Instead of seeing a normal correction, which happens more often than not when the market has been going straight up for four weeks, we have seen [...]
11-28-23: New Volatility Lows for 2023 Indicate a Coming Overdue Small Correction
by Ivan Martchev November 28, 2023 The VIX (market volatility index) closed on Friday at 12.46, one tick above its annual low for 2023. While I have seen the VIX fall under [...]
11-21-23: The Stock Market is Pushing Against Statistical Extremes
by Ivan Martchev November 21, 2023 If we look at the whole year, as of last Friday, the S&P 500 is in an extreme position, based on its standard deviations away from [...]
11-14-23: So far, the Stock Market Bottom for 2023 Still Holds
by Ivan Martchev November 14, 2023 We have entered the seasonally strongest part of the year – as November and December historically tend to be up months, when the stock market acts [...]