by Ivan Martchev
April 14, 2026
When it comes to the stock market, investors decided to run with the best-case scenario on news of talks between the Trump administration and Iran in Islamabad over the weekend. If there are no more falling bombs in Iran and if the Strait of Hormuz opens reasonably soon, then the lows for the stock market for this sell-off are in, and we have made an intermediate-term bottom. One could say that last point is a moot point as the semiconductor sector is already at all-time highs (chart-below), and the semiconductor sector is viewed as a leading indicator for the tech sector and, by the same yardstick, the overall stock market.
Graphs are for illustrative and discussion purposes only. Please read important disclosures at the end of this commentary.
But – and this is a key point – no deal came out of these weekend negotiations.
On the surface, this ceasefire is scheduled to run for another week, but Vice President J.D. Vance left Islamabad with what he called our “best and final offer.” I would venture to guess Vance’s words are probably President Trump’s, as he was in communication with his negotiating team the whole time.
I can see how this ceasefire could be extended, but the worst thing possible is if the bombs start falling again and the price of oil makes another run up, perhaps to all-time highs. That would be the worst case scenario, where new 12-month lows for the stock market would be likely, given the giant short squeeze. (That means there are no shorts to cover on a decline, so the decline will be bigger). To be honest, I don’t know what type of probability to assign in the worst-case scenario, but I know it exists and it is not small.
I discussed oil price dynamics last week, when I said it is virtually impossible for stocks to keep rallying if the oil price makes a run for all-time highs. I know the stock market was ignoring the elevated oil price before the ceasefire was announced. Will it be doing so this week, if the ceasefire fails? I doubt it.
Graphs are for illustrative and discussion purposes only. Please read important disclosures at the end of this commentary.
In the chart above, I examine the possible best-case and worst-case scenarios for the stock market with blue (best case) and red (worst case) colors. I have left room for a little dip early this week. In both cases, we have a lot of hope, but we don’t have a deal with Iran. Obviously, news flow can overpower any normal consolidation – with back and filling activity – but if we don’t get only positive news this week and the oil price rises, I think a normal pullback is to be expected, even in the best-case scenario.
First-quarter earnings will start to trickle in this week, and they are expected to be good, as will the EPS for all of 2026. Absent the Iran war, the market would be rallying, but this Iran war is a binary event. If the price of oil gets out of control – it has not done that yet – the war can act like a break on the global economy. This is not dissimilar to past situations, when the global economy is cruising along and then, all of a sudden, a giant fallen tree is blocking the road. The driver must brake hard and then try to get around the tree. If that is not possible, the driver must wait for the emergency crews to clear the highway. As for the Iran war, we don’t yet know if we will be able to get around the tree without a full stop and long wait.
Graphs are for illustrative and discussion purposes only. Please read important disclosures at the end of this commentary.
I don’t like the above betting odds (on Polymarket) due to a lot of questions about Iran, whose leaders don’t seem to suggest this drama will be over by the end of April. That, in and of itself, does not suggest the resumption of hostilities, but the Trump administration is clearly using a carrot and stick approach.
We saw one awfully big stick for six weeks. Over the weekend, we saw a small carrot in Islamabad, but there is no way the stock market likes the big stick, so all we can do is hope for an extension of the truce.
Keep in mind that a Presidential tweet – or a “truth,” as his tweets are called on Truth Social – can move the market by 1%-2% in either direction. Here is the “truth” as of Sunday morning at 8:52 am EDT:
“So, there you have it, the meeting went well, most points were agreed to, but the only point that really mattered, NUCLEAR, was not. Effective immediately, the United States Navy, the Finest in the World, will begin the process of BLOCKADING any and all Ships trying to enter, or leave, the Strait of Hormuz. At some point, we will reach an ‘ALL BEING ALLOWED TO GO IN, ALL BEING ALLOWED TO GO OUT’ basis, but Iran has not allowed that to happen by merely saying, ‘There may be a mine out there somewhere,’ that nobody knows about but them.
“THIS IS WORLD EXTORTION, and Leaders of Countries, especially the United States of America, will never be extorted. I have also instructed our Navy to seek and interdict every vessel in International Waters that has paid a toll to Iran. No one who pays an illegal toll will have safe passage on the high seas. We will also begin destroying the mines the Iranians laid in the Straits.
“Any Iranian who fires at us, or at peaceful vessels, will be BLOWN TO HELL! Iran knows, better than anyone, how to END this situation which has already devastated their Country. Their Navy is gone, their Air Force is gone, their Anti-Aircraft and Radar are useless, Khomeini, and most of their “Leaders,” are dead, all because of their Nuclear ambition. The Blockade will begin shortly. Other Countries will be involved with this Blockade. Iran will not be allowed to profit off this Illegal Act of EXTORTION. They want money and, more importantly, they want Nuclear. Additionally and, at an appropriate moment, we are fully “LOCKED AND LOADED,” and our Military will finish up the little that is left of Iran!” – President DONALD J. TRUMP
To me, that does not sound like things are moving towards de-escalation.
So, the Trump administration has 2 to 3-weeks to wrap this up because of the crude oil shortage already appearing before we begin to see real damage in the global economy. I sure hope they succeed.
All content above represents the opinion of Ivan Martchev of Navellier & Associates, Inc.
Also In This Issue
A Look Ahead by Louis Navellier
The Long-Term Outlook for Energy Prices
Income Mail by Bryan Perry
Buckle Up on the Road to a “Normal Nation State” in Iran
Growth Mail by Gary Alexander
On Taxes: The Laffer Curve in Action…and in the Arts
Global Mail by Ivan Martchev
This Ceasefire is Starting to Look Like a Failing Truce
Sector Spotlight by Jason Bodner
“Big Money” Buying Suddenly Revived Last Week
View Full Archive
Read Past Issues Here
Ivan Martchev
INVESTMENT STRATEGIST
Ivan Martchev is an investment strategist with Navellier. Previously, Ivan served as editorial director at InvestorPlace Media. Ivan was editor of Louis Rukeyser’s Mutual Funds and associate editor of Personal Finance. Ivan is also co-author of The Silk Road to Riches (Financial Times Press). The book provided analysis of geopolitical issues and investment strategy in natural resources and emerging markets with an emphasis on Asia. The book also correctly predicted the collapse in the U.S. real estate market, the rise of precious metals, and the resulting increased investor interest in emerging markets. Ivan’s commentaries have been published by MSNBC, The Motley Fool, MarketWatch, and others. All content of “Global Mail” represents the opinion of Ivan Martchev
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