by Ivan Martchev February 19, 2020 The Wuhan coronavirus has a name. It’s Covid-19. Covid-19 sure has roiled the commodity markets – mainly oil. It has also pressed Treasury yields close to [...]

by Ivan Martchev February 11, 2020 A lot of people are surprised at how fast the S&P 500 rebounded after the initial coronavirus scare, while managing to eke out a fresh all-time [...]

By Ivan Martchev February 4, 2020 A lot of people have been caught flatfooted calling for a hard economic landing in China in the past 10 years, not realizing that because of [...]

by Ivan Martchev January 28, 2020 As the SARS-like coronavirus is spreading across China, panic levels are increasing in financial markets around the world. U.S. Treasury bonds are rallying again and the [...]

January 22, 2020 The fact that the market is overbought does not mean that it will immediately correct; it means that we need to remember how overbought it is – based on [...]

January 14, 2020 Gulf War III was certainly not part of any econometric models, but it came close – with a predator drone strike and an Iranian retaliation. Who knows what Shiite [...]

January 7, 2020 That the imams in Teheran are not happy with the assassination of their beloved general in Baghdad goes without saying, but the unintended consequence is that the Iraqi government [...]

December 31, 2019 Most forecasts will turn out wrong, but since clients demand them, we have to do the best we can. Yet, most market-moving events are simply outside the scope or [...]

December 24, 2019 Since we just registered all-time highs in the major U.S. indexes, helped by the half-baked Phase I trade deal with China, one could not help but wonder what the [...]

December 17, 2019 One could say that December 2019 is the exact opposite of December 2018. Instead of overtightening, as it did back then, the Federal Reserve is accelerating the growth of [...]

December 10, 2019 Sitting near an all-time high in the major stock indexes, we’ll see some key events this week that could deliver an outburst of volatility in either direction. There is [...]

December 3, 2019 In a holiday-shortened trading week, not much happened. I have tried to tune out the impeachment circus on TV, as I do not believe it is an economic event. [...]