Global Mail Archive
9-15-20: Get Your Flu Shots This Year
By Ivan Martchev, September 15, 2020 Because the symptoms of COVID-19 and the flu are so similar for so many people, this year it is more important to get the flu [...]
9-9-20: Why Lumber and Stocks Dance Together
by Ivan Martchev September 9, 2020 Last week, I went into the largest Home Depot in the world, in Vauxhall, N.J., and stopped at the head of the pressure-treated lumber aisle and [...]
9-1-20: None of “This” is Normal
by Ivan Martchev September 1, 2020 One question keeps coming up in conversations with clients and prospective clients, even neighbors: “Is this rise in the stock market normal since March?” The short [...]
8-25-20: The Dollar is About to Rebound Some
by Ivan Martchev August 25, 2020 While I am convinced that the Fed wants the U.S. dollar to be weaker, and is actively trying to nudge it lower, I think we are [...]
8-18-20: Could Mortgage Rates Go Lower Than the Last All-time Low?
by Ivan Martchev August 18, 2020 This past week, the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate hit an all-time low. Then the Russians beat the clock on a COVID vaccine, and we had [...]
8-11-20: The Dollar Short Squeeze is Not Over Yet
by Ivan Martchev August 11, 2020 I find it fascinating that as investors are wondering about the collapse of the US Dollar Index (DXY), the trade-weighted dollar is rather strong. The old [...]
8-4-20: The Market is Much Weaker Outside of Tech
by Ivan Martchev August 4, 2020 As of Friday’s close, the average stock in the S&P 500 Index, weighed equally, is down about 6% for the year, even though the average itself [...]
7-28-20: The Federal Government is Pushing Higher Inflation
by Ivan Martchev July 28, 2020 We have a new player that is meaningfully affecting various measures of money supply in the U.S. economy, and it's not the Federal Reserve. It’s the [...]
7-21-20: The Bull Market in U.S. Bonds is Dead
by Ivan Martchev July 21, 2020 It is entirely possible that the U.S. government bond bull market that began in 1981 ended in the year 2020. But that does not mean that [...]
7-14-20: The Fed is Moving in Mysterious Ways
by Ivan Martchev July 14, 2020 The Federal Reserve’s balance sheet has shrunk for four weeks in a row. The rate of shrinkage is about $200 billion during those four weeks, which [...]
7-7-20: How to Inflate Away the COVID Debts
by Ivan Martchev July 7, 2020 Last year, I got into a discussion about whether or not the Federal Reserve controls the money supply. Well, it does, as per Chairman Powell’s own [...]
6-30-20: My Real-Time COVID Indicator is Flashing Red
by Ivan Martchev June 30, 2020 A few decades ago, some trading software had a feature right next to the last quote which showed 10 to 15 colored bars. If there was [...]