Global Mail Archive
11-29-22: Here Comes Another S&P 500 “Line in the Sand”
by Ivan Martchev November 29, 2022 The stock market is near where it was last February, so again we are wondering if we have already seen the lows for this bear market. [...]
11-22-22: Watch the Bond Market
by Ivan Martchev November 22, 2022 I spoke to an investor last week and was surprised to hear the following characterization of my column: “I always thought you were a fixed-income guy. [...]
11-15-22: The Fed Finally Caused the “Complete Inversion”
by Ivan Martchev November 15, 2022 The 3-month/10-year Treasury curve inverted last Thursday on better-than-expected inflation (CPI) news. The 3-month Treasury rate closed at 4.20%, while the 10-year closed at 3.83%. Fed [...]
11-8-22: The Fed’s Epic Bait and Switch
by Ivan Martchev November 8, 2022 Perhaps investors wanted to read into this paragraph from the latest FOMC statement more than it said: “The Committee anticipates that ongoing increases in the target [...]
11-1-22: Bonds Still Hold the Keys to the Rebound
by Ivan Martchev November 1, 2022 It is no surprise that with a retreat of 10-year Treasury yields off the highs of 4.33%, the stock market had a big rebound last week. [...]
10-25-22: The Stock Market Bottom is a Definite “Maybe”
by Ivan Martchev October 25, 2022 There is a lot to like and a lot not to like about Friday’s rebound in the stock market. The Treasury futures had a big reversal, [...]
10-18-22: Where the $6 Trillion Came From
by Ivan Martchev October 18, 2022 Over the summer, I managed to go to Europe in August, which is the most cherished of all months of the year for most Europeans, as [...]
10-11-22: Why the Euro Could Break 90 Cents
by Ivan Martchev October 11, 2022 If we didn’t have the war in Ukraine and natural gas was flowing freely into Europe, the euro probably would not be as low as it [...]
10-4-22: The Fed is Making the Same Mistake Twice
by Ivan Martchev October 4, 2022 In overnight trading last week, the 10-year Treasury yield briefly traded over 4%, and 30-year fixed-rate mortgages went over 7%. Having oversold the “transitory” nature of [...]
9-27-22: Some Global Markets are Starting to Break
by Ivan Martchev September 27, 2022 The British pound UK gilts – the equivalent of U.S. Treasuries – had outsized moves on Friday with 10-year gilts surging as much as 50 basis [...]
9-20-22: The Fed is About to Slam the Brakes on the U.S. Economy
by Ivan Martchev September 20, 2022 One has to wonder if the 400 (or more) PhD economists employed by the Federal Reserve have explained to the Fed Chairman how monetary policy works [...]
9-13-22: This Week’s Inflation Numbers Won’t Likely “Save” the Market
by Ivan Martchev September 13, 2022 Most of you will see these articles in your inboxes Tuesday morning, a few minutes before the latest Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) numbers are released. Last [...]