Global Mail Archive
5-4-21: Another Rising-Rate Rotation Coming
by Ivan Martchev May 4, 2021 While there was selling into strength as the Nasdaq 100 crossed 14,000, it has been painfully obvious to those following the tape more closely that this [...]
4-27-21: The Fed’s Bull Market Strategy
by Ivan Martchev April 27, 2021 The Federal Reserve’s balance sheet has reached $7.82 trillion at last count. Expanding at roughly $120 billion a month, it will be over $8 trillion by [...]
4-20-21: Not Worried About Inflation… Until Next Month
by Ivan Martchev April 20, 2021 The CPI release last week was hot but apparently it could be explained as “transitory,” which caused the Treasury market to rally and yields to fall. [...]
4-13-21: Tuesday’s CPI Numbers Will Be Interesting
by Ivan Martchev April 13, 2021 The Producer Price Inflation (PPI) number released last Friday was the hottest in nine years and came with a bizarre technical glitch wherein the BLS press [...]
4-6-21: The Real Reaction to the Jobs Report Will Come This Week
by Ivan Martchev April 6, 2021 Friday brought a great March jobs report on a day the stock market was closed for the observance of Good Friday and the beginning of the [...]
3-30-21: How Fast Will the 10-Year Treasury Yield Get to 2%?
by Ivan Martchev March 30, 2021 Having closed last week at 1.67%, the 10-year Treasury yield may very well be above 1.75% (its 52-week high) by the time you read this. With [...]
3-23-21: This Free Monetary Lunch Will End Up Being Expensive
by Ivan Martchev March 23, 2021 Commemorating the one-year anniversary of the most extreme intervention in financial markets and the global economy in history, Fed Chair Jerome Powell decided to pen a [...]
3-16-21: The Legendary 2-10 Spread is Now 6-for-6
by Ivan Martchev March 16, 2021 Even though the 2020 COVID recession was due to multi-government-ordered mandatory shutdowns, the legendary 2-10 spread managed to flip into negative territory in August 2019, just [...]
3-9-21: Extreme Divergence in the Gold Market
by Ivan Martchev March 9, 2021 One of the closest relationships in the gold market is that between gold and the U.S. dollar. When the dollar is strong, gold is weak and [...]
3-2-21: The Fed Would Love a 2% 10-Year Treasury
by Ivan Martchev March 2, 2021 The reason why the Fed has not really signaled any concern about the spike in Treasury yields to 1.6% is that the Fed funds rate is [...]
2-23-21: It’s Starting to Look a Lot Like 2003
by Ivan Martchev February 23, 2021 Between the summers of 2003-2008 you could do no wrong by investing in commodities and emerging markets. That changed dramatically with the failure of Lehman Brothers. [...]
2-17-21: The Role of Central Banks
by Ivan Martchev February 17, 2021 Central banks serve a countercyclical role. When the economy overheats, they try to calm it down; when it’s depressed, they try to prop it up, as [...]