Global Mail Archive
9-10-24: This is Just Normal Seasonal Jitters
by Ivan Martchev September 10, 2024 Those pundits that pronounced on TV that the yen carry trade was 50% to 75% unwound last month better be right, as the Japanese currency is [...]
9-4-24: Will This be a September to Remember?
by Ivan Martchev September 4, 2024 Over the last 95 years, September has been the worst month of the year, when it comes to seasonality, and the only month with average negative [...]
8-27-24: The “Nvidia Danger” is They Sell the Good News
by Ivan Martchev August 27, 2024 The stock market has now risen three weeks in a row, which came after being down three weeks in a row. The broad market has completely [...]
8-20-24: This Latest Feels Like an Upside Overshoot
by Ivan Martchev August 20, 2024 When a correction gets going, investors often ask me how far this correction will go. To be honest, I may have a good guess, but I [...]
8-13-24: A Dramatic Increase in Yen Correlations
by Ivan Martchev August 13, 2024 We rebounded exactly where I said (last week) we were supposed to rebound from, when it comes to the NASDAQ 100 Index’s 200-day moving average. The [...]
8-6-24: The Bond Market is Already Cutting Rates for the Fed
by Ivan Martchev August 6, 2024 Hell-bent on saving his legacy when it comes to fighting inflation, Fed Chair Jerome Powell turned from an uber-dove in 2020 to an uber-hawk in 2022. [...]
7-30-24: The Yen Strikes Back
by Ivan Martchev July 30, 2024 One of the largest carry trades in the world, funded by the Japanese yen, has reached some sort of climax and is partially unwinding, which is [...]
7-23-24: It is Starting to Look like an Intermediate-Term Sell-Off
by Ivan Martchev July 23, 2024 That was quick. The S&P 500 Index registered a fresh all-time high on Tuesday and proceeded to sell off by 179 points (-3%), high to low, [...]
7-16-24: An Assassination Attempt + The Curse of the Mega-Caps
by Ivan Martchev July 16, 2024 I am writing this on Sunday before stock index futures open at 6 pm. Because the attack on President Trump’s life was unsuccessful, it should not [...]
7-9-24: Macron’s Gamble Pays Off
by Ivan Martchev July 9, 2024 As I write, on Sunday, it is still unclear what the final tally will be from the second round of voting in the French parliamentary election. [...]
7-2-24: The Stock Market is Acting a Little Tired
by Ivan Martchev July 2, 2024 I was not happy to see so much selling into strength last Friday, the last day of the quarter – following what should have been encouraging [...]
6-25-24: More European Political Fireworks Are Coming
by Ivan Martchev June 25, 2024 Readers of this column may be disturbed reading The New York Times article titled, “The Man Softening the Ground for an Extremist Germany,” about Bjorn Hocke, [...]