Global Mail Archive
3-21-23: QE Has Restarted
by Ivan Martchev March 21, 2023 With about $500 billion in outflows from the smaller banks, if one were to estimate the total value of all emergency facilities from the Fed and [...]
3-14-23: The Fed is on the Cusp of a Gargantuan Mistake
by Ivan Martchev March 14, 2023 If Fed Chair Jerome Powell does not pause now, or after next week’s – I believe unnecessary – 25 basis point rate hike, he would be [...]
3-7-23: M2 Money Supply Shrinkage Accelerates
by Ivan Martchev March 7, 2023 The total amount of money in the U.S. financial system is thawing like spring snow. In the latest reported months, M2 money supply shrank by 1.3% [...]
2-28-23: The Stock Market is Not Ready for 10-Year Treasury Rates Above 4%
by Ivan Martchev February 28, 2023 Last week, Rick Santelli on live TV likened the Fed to a sick patient constantly popping pills at every sign of inflation. The patient does not [...]
2-22-23: The Bond Market Now Looks to the Fed
by Ivan Martchev February 22, 2023 If the Fed won’t follow the bond market, maybe the bond market will follow the Fed. The 2-year note, the most sensitive to Fed policy, has [...]
2-14-23: The Fed Does Not Need to “Do More”
by Ivan Martchev February 14, 2023 Fed Chair Jerome Powell talks the party line when he says the Fed may need to “do more” if we get more hot inflation and jobs [...]
2-7-23: A Big Euro Sell-off (Dollar Rebound) is Coming – Due to Ukraine Invasion 2.0
by Ivan Martchev February 7, 2023 Since news stories have begun to appear about large troop movements on the Russian side of the border, the implications for financial markets of Russia’s Ukrainian [...]
1-31-23: The Surreal Correlation Between Junk Bonds and Stocks
by Ivan Martchev January 31, 2023 A junk bond “reads like a bond but trades like a stock,” a veteran bond trader told me a long time ago, and a total return [...]
1-24-23: Where Will the Next Vertical Line in Germany’s Dax Point?
by Ivan Martchev January 24, 2023 We will be watching this week to see if the S&P 500 can rally past its 200-day moving average in an obvious downtrend that started on [...]
1-18-23: High Yield Spreads Show No Recession in Early 2023
by Ivan Martchev January 18, 2023 At 429 basis points, the spread of the major junk bond index to Treasuries is dangerously close to the “inside 400” level, which is where it [...]
1-10-23: As January Goes, So Goes the Year (Sort of)
by Ivan Martchev January 10, 2023 That is a tried and true trader’s saw, which unfortunately, like all saws, is not 100% accurate. The shorter version of the same saw--due to the [...]
1-4-23: M2 Growth Goes to Zero
by Ivan Martchev January 4, 2023 Once I had a truly bizarre conversation with a financial journalist at a major organization. His jaw-dropping point was that the Fed does not control the [...]