Global Mail Archive
This is where you can find all of our Global Mail articles from Ivan Martchev.
5-19-26: Quantifying a “Normal” Correction
by Ivan Martchev May 19, 2026 I was not surprised to see the NASDAQ 100 Index marginally down last week, given what is going on with crude oil and Treasury yields, which [...]
5-12-26: Political Considerations Before the Trump-Xi Summit
by Ivan Martchev May 12, 2026 It is clear the U.S. does not want to restart any Iran hostilities in earnest, since we are only days away from the scheduled May 14-15 [...]
5-5-26: The Stock Market Has Assumed the Iran War is Over
by Ivan Martchev May 5, 2026 On April 7, when a truce was announced – or even a week earlier, when the market began to anticipate the coming truce – the market [...]
4-28-26: Is April the Cruelest Month?
by Ivan Martchev April 28, 2026 April is not over, but we are already close to a 13% rise in the S&P 500 since March 30, closing Friday at a new all-time [...]
4-21-26: Stocks Try to Fly like Icarus
by Ivan Martchev April 21, 2026 After hitting an all-time high on the S&P 500 on Friday (before Iranians shot at a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz), we have an opportunity [...]
4-14-26: This Ceasefire is Starting to Look Like a Failing Truce
by Ivan Martchev April 14, 2026 When it comes to the stock market, investors decided to run with the best-case scenario on news of talks between the Trump administration and Iran in [...]
4-7-26: Investors Hope for the Best, but are they Prepared for the Worst?
by Ivan Martchev April 7, 2026 If you told me WTI crude oil futures would rise 11.4% last Thursday, up $11.42, to $111.54, I would have guessed the S&P 500 would have [...]
3-31-26: One Cannot Print (or Tweet) Crude Oil
by Ivan Martchev March 31, 2026 Last week’s high in S&P futures was set just about the time of the Monday morning post from President Trump, saying he was giving Iran a [...]
3-24-26: A “Force Majeure” in LNG Has Been Triggered
by Ivan Martchev March 24, 2026 According to mainstream dictionaries (via Google’s Gemini), “Force Majeure” is a contractual clause freeing parties from liability when extraordinary, unforeseeable events—like natural disasters, war, or pandemics—make [...]
3-17-26: The Longer the War, the Worse the Economic Impact
by Ivan Martchev March 17, 2026 I have stated previously this kinetic war is similar (so far) in economic impact to the trade war threat last April. Cost prohibitive tariffs caused a [...]
3-10-26: When Oil Reverses, the Stock Market Will Bottom
by Ivan Martchev March 10, 2026 In a good economy, we have started a market decline that is, at a minimum, headed into the area of the S&P 500’s 200-day moving average, [...]
3-3-26: The Iran War Begins, But Where Will It End?
by Ivan Martchev March 3, 2026 I am writing this on Sunday, before the futures market opens at 6 pm, but I expect the opening to be quite dramatic, although – to [...]