Global Mail Archive
4-29-25: The Stock Market is Sniffing Out More Trade Deals
by Ivan Martchev April 29, 2025 It is comical to see how the Chinese twice last week had to deny that they are having any trade talks with the U.S. via their [...]
4-22-25: The Stock Market is in “No Man’s Land”
by Ivan Martchev April 22, 2025 They say the bulls live above the 200-day moving average while bears live below it. This may be true in normal times, but times are anything [...]
4-15-25: Could the Surge in Treasury Yields Be the Market’s “Shot Across the Bow?”
by Ivan Martchev April 15, 2025 It would appear that the bond market is forcing President Trump's hand to walk back the steep tariffs he imposed on April 2nd. Not only did [...]
4-8-25: A High-Stakes Game of Tariff Chicken
by Ivan Martchev April 8, 2025 When I noted last week that the quickest way for President Trump to push the stock market lower, on par with what Jerome Powell did in [...]
4-1-25: Beware of the Auto Tariff Quicksand
by Ivan Martchev April 1, 2025 The expeditious unraveling of the respectable 5% rebound of the S&P 500 Index off the mid-March lows can be primarily linked to one-event, the 25% tariff [...]
3-25-25: Some Bottoming Action in the Stock Market is Clearly Evident
by Ivan Martchev March 25, 2025 While last week finally delivered an up-week for the S&P 500, it was clearly messy, which is normal in a bottoming process. I do not believe [...]
3-18-25: The VIX Says Buy Stocks
by Ivan Martchev March 18, 2025 I think the recent decline in the stock market is primarily rotational in nature, and the tariff threats by the Trump administration are mostly just an [...]
3-11-25: U.S. Stocks Are Ripe for a Rebound
by Ivan Martchev March 11, 2025 I don’t believe that the recent three weeks of selling in the S&P 500, after an all-time high in February, is due to interest rates, economic [...]
3-4-25: The Bond Market Is Beginning to Worry (a Little) About the Economy
by Ivan Martchev March 4, 2025 The S&P 500 registered a second down week in a row after hitting an all-time high as recently as February 19th. Even with the all-time high [...]
2-25-25: The Friday Curse of the S&P 500
by Ivan Martchev February 25, 2025 Every Friday of the new Trump administration has been a down-day, if you look at the most important index, the S&P 500. The first three Fridays [...]
2-19-25: Trump’s Strategy of “Reconnaissance Through Battle”
by Ivan Martchev February 19, 2025 There has been downside volatility in the U.S. (much of it associated with tariffs) and upside volatility in Europe, particularly the German stock market (much of [...]
2-11-25: Will We See Another “Groundhog” Week?
by Ivan Martchev February 11, 2025 It does not happen very often that one week of trading in the S&P-500 looks like a carbon copy of the previous week, and yet this [...]