by Ivan Martchev
June 9, 2026
“Told you so” does not work in financial markets. Nobody knows ahead of time the precise date when an index will top out, or the precise date it will bottom. All we can do is recognize extremes – both to the upside and the downside – and then look for signs of a top or a bottom and act accordingly.
We must always beware of false signals along the way. Such is the nature of markets.
Realizing these caveats, I did go into detail as to why the stock market became the most overbought since the bull market began in October 2022. The NASDAQ 100 index was even more overbought last month than in June/July 2024; the previous extreme overbought reading (see 5-19-26: Quantifying a “Normal” Correction. I did not know when an intermediate top would come – all I knew was that we were close).
Graphs are for illustrative and discussion purposes only. Please read important disclosures at the end of this commentary.