Quarterly Market Outlook Reports

Each Quarter, our team of portfolio managers meet to discuss the trends of the previous and upcoming quarter. We assemble the trends, the impact to our portfolios and discuss which moves are prudent for the coming weeks and months. And we deliver this analysis to you every three months.

First Quarter, 2020

Our dividend growth and conservative growth stocks have rebounded impressively in the past four weeks. As we have said repeatedly, good stocks bounce right back and that is exactly what has happened since the late March lows. We expect to continue to sell selected stocks into strength as we concentrate on the crème de la crème and anticipate holding fewer stocks in the upcoming months due to the fact that the economic recovery is anticipated to be very narrow.

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Fourth Quarter, 2019

2019 was a year of great stock market performance and flat earnings. In some respects, it was the opposite of 2018 when earnings were up more than 20% while stocks were down. Yet if we take the averages for both years for both EPS growth and stock performance, the two years were pretty normal—on average. The 4th quarter of 2019 will be the last lackluster quarter for the S&P 500’s earnings. Looking forward to 2020, the S&P 500 will be having much more favorable year-over-year comparisons, so we expect positive guidance from many flagship companies.

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Third Quarter, 2019

Our dividend growth and conservative growth stocks are “locked and loaded” for the upcoming third-quarter announcement season. We are exiting the seasonally weak months for small-to-mid capitalization stocks and are now on the verge of when small-to-mid capitalization stocks tend to surge from an early “January effect” and remain strong well into the New Year.

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Second Quarter, 2019

Our growth stocks continue to steadily appreciate and exhibit significant relative strength compared to the S&P 500. In fact, our Large Cap Growth portfolio just posted its strongest outperformance relative to the S&P 500 and is leading all our other growth portfolios year-to-date, which are also having a good year.

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First Quarter, 2019

We remain in a “Goldilocks” environment with low interest rates, steady economic growth, and hope for the future as politicians run around and promise us everything and anything. Amidst the chaos around the world, the U.S. remains an oasis for investors.

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Fourth Quarter, 2018

The stock market has been “re-liquefied” in January and is off to one of the strongest starts in decades, especially for small capitalization stocks that have “melted up.” So far in 2019, stocks are largely responding positively to their quarterly announcements and guidance.

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Third Quarter, 2018

Our portfolios are now in the midst of another stunning earnings announcement season. Already, better than expected third-quarter earnings have been announced from Intuitive Surgical (ISRG), Netflix (NFLX), PayPal (PYPL), Progressive (PGR), and United Healthcare (UNH).

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Second Quarter, 2018

Our growth and dividend stocks have been oscillating with the overall stock market recently, but we expect that one by one, as they post better than expected second- quarter sales and earnings that operational performance may translate in better price action.

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