by Louis Navellier
April 14, 2026
Since the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) makes money from selling its own crude oil, economic priorities will always be key toward any war-ending negotiations. President Trump said a 10-point plan from Iran is a “workable basis” for negotiations, but the removal of all Iran’s nuclear material is a priority, as is getting Iran to end all its ballistic missile manufacturing. The relationship with Iran’s neighbors will be interesting after attacking them over the last 40-days. It will also be interesting to see if Israel keeps killing key IRGC leaders. Officially, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu said Israel supports the ceasefire.
Last week, Iran told mediators they would limit the number of ships crossing the Strait of Hormuz to about a dozen per day and would be charging tolls, so ships wanting to pass must negotiate with the IRGC. Only four-ships went through the Strait of Hormuz last Wednesday, down from over 100 per-day before the war began. Then, on Thursday, 15-ships went through the Strait, including Chinese oil tankers.
Obviously, the IRGC is striving to figure out how to make money, as many of its other revenue sources have plunged. Naturally, charging $2-million per ship, just to pass safely through, would cause the price of many goods to rise. The oil shortage is mostly a problem for Europe, India, China and the rest of Asia.
President Trump does not want Iran to charge tolls for passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Specifically, President Trump said Iran is doing a “poor job” allowing crude oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz and, regarding charging fees for passage, Trump said, “They better not be and, if they are, they better stop now!” Meanwhile, more than 800-ships are in place, waiting for passage through the Strait of Hormuz.
One positive development from the Iran war is China ending its deflationary death spiral! Specifically, China’s National Bureau of Statistics announced on Friday producer prices rose a hefty 0.5% in March after plunging 0.9% in February. China has had hideous deflation for the previous three-years, so if prices firm up this year, many Chinese companies and consumers can perhaps stop postponing their spending.
The Latest Economic Indicators are Still Mostly Positive
Speaking of inflation, the Labor Department said America’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) surged 0.9% in March and 3.3% in the past 12-months. The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose 0.2% in March and 2.6% in the past 12-months. Gasoline prices surged 18.9% in March and fuel oil prices soared 44.2%!
Believe it or not, the CPI was in-line with the economists’ consensus estimate, and the core CPI was better than the economists’ consensus for a 0.3% rise. So ironically, the CPI report was positive, and as energy prices fall in upcoming months, the Fed should be able to resume cutting its key interest rate.
The Fed’s favorite inflation index, the Commerce Department’s Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) index was released last Thursday, showing a 0.4% rise in February and just 2.8% in the past year. The core PCE, excluding food and energy, also rose by 0.4% in February and 3.0% in the past 12-months.
The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) announced that its service (non-manufacturing) index slipped to 54 in March, down from a robust 56.1 in February. Any reading over 50-signals an expansion, so this is still a positive signal, telling us the service sector is healthy. The employment component declined to 45.2 in March, down from 51.8 in February, and the business activity component declined to 53.9 in March, down from 59.9 in February. The new orders and supplier deliveries components rose in March compared to February. Overall, 13 of the 16 service industries ISM surveyed reported expanding in March.
The Commerce Department said durable goods orders declined 1.4% in February, significantly below the economists’ consensus expectation of a 1.1% decline. Additionally, January durable goods orders were revised lower to a 0.5% decline, down from a 0.1% drop previously reported. Transportation orders declined 5.4% in February due to a 37% decline in Boeing’s commercial aircraft orders. It will be interesting to see if Boeing’s orders pick up after the Iran war ends. Excluding transportation, durable goods orders rose 0.8% in February, which was higher than the economists’ consensus estimate of a 0.5% increase, so there were definitely some “green shoots” in the February durable goods report.
Fairly soon, the incoming Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh could assert himself and take control of Fed policy after his Senate confirmation. In the meantime, there is a lot of confusion regarding the course of interest rates due to: (1) recent lackluster Treasury refinancings, (2) a growing federal budget deficit this year, and (3) surging food and energy prices. Frankly, in the interim, I would like to see Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent instill some confidence in the Treasury markets – until he can join forces with Kevin Warsh.
Overall, despite the fears of an inflation spike and some uncertainty surrounding the Iranian ceasefire, Wall Street is rallying due to wave after wave of positive analyst earning revisions. The relative strength and institutional buying pressure became obvious during quarter-end window dressing in late March.
Excitement about the upcoming quarterly announcement season is finally building, and we have a lot to look forward to in the upcoming weeks of some potentially spectacular first-quarter earnings reports!
Navellier & Associates, Inc.; do not own The Boeing Company (BA) in managed accounts. Louis Navellier does not personally own the Boeing Company (BA).
All content above represents the opinion of Louis Navellier of Navellier & Associates, Inc.
Also In This Issue
A Look Ahead by Louis Navellier
The Long-Term Outlook for Energy Prices
Income Mail by Bryan Perry
Buckle Up on the Road to a “Normal Nation State” in Iran
Growth Mail by Gary Alexander
On Taxes: The Laffer Curve in Action…and in the Arts
Global Mail by Ivan Martchev
This Ceasefire is Starting to Look Like a Failing Truce
Sector Spotlight by Jason Bodner
“Big Money” Buying Suddenly Revived Last Week
View Full Archive
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Louis Navellier
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Louis Navellier is Founder, Chairman of the Board, Chief Investment Officer and Chief Compliance Officer of Navellier & Associates, Inc., located in Reno, Nevada. With decades of experience translating what had been purely academic techniques into real market applications, he believes that disciplined, quantitative analysis can select stocks that will significantly outperform the overall market. All content in this “A Look Ahead” section of Market Mail represents the opinion of Louis Navellier of Navellier & Associates, Inc.
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