by Jason Bodner
April 14, 2026
Octopi have three-hearts. Two-hearts pump blood to the gills. One-pumps it to the rest of the body. When they swim, the main heart actually stops beating, which is why they prefer to crawl instead of move fast.
Markets can be similar… under stress, the system slows, stalls, and looks like it cannot move forward. Then, without much warning, it starts up again, and that is what this past week looked like.
Two-weeks ago, the BMI (Big Money Index) came under pressure, falling along with the overall market.
Graphs are for illustrative and discussion purposes only. Please read important disclosures at the end of this commentary.
During the week of March 16-20, we saw 671-outflows (-456 net flows) driven by persistent institutional selling. March 20th alone saw -337 outflows in a single session. That was definitely not a normal day.
Then, suddenly, the tone changed. President Trump announced a cease fire for two-weeks to enable negotiations with Iran to potentially end the war. Last week (April 6-10) saw +135 net flows as of Thursday. That is a significant swing. Outflows dropped from an average -81 per day from March 16th to April 2nd to gently rising inflows. Selling stopped suddenly, and buying stepped in, right behind it.
Graphs are for illustrative and discussion purposes only. Please read important disclosures at the end of this commentary.
We can see that with a spike in ETVs (unusually large trades) coupled with a spike in the SPY:
Graphs are for illustrative and discussion purposes only. Please read important disclosures at the end of this commentary.
That kind of reversal is not just retail driven… it reflects institutional flows showing up in the data.
The price action confirmed it. The S&P ETF (SPY) rose 3.6% for the week and shot up 7.5% since March 30th. At the same time, the VIX fell from 31.05 on March 27 to 19.23 on April 10. That is a 38% drop in volatility in two-weeks. Clearly, this is what we all wanted to see. When flows, price, and volatility all shift together, it usually means something changed beneath the surface.
The best evidence came forth on April 8, with 94-inflows, placing it in the 85th percentile historically. Elevated Trading Volume came in at 1,032, in the 97th percentile. The day ratio was 0.879, also elevated.
Those numbers rarely line up at the same time. One can spike, two is notable, but all three is conviction.
It tells you institutions were not just “testing the waters.” They were plowing back in with size.
Now, let’s layer in the broader backdrop.
The BMI remains below 50%. Over the last 25-trading days, there has been more selling than buying.
On the surface, the market still looks weak, but that is what makes this setup look interesting.
Graphs are for illustrative and discussion purposes only. Please read important disclosures at the end of this commentary.
The market was under pressure, followed by a sharp reversal, confirmed by heavy institutional activity. That combination does not show up very often. Going back to 1990, similar setups tend to cluster around periods of stress, like the financial crisis in 2008, the debt scare in 2011, the China and oil unwind in 2015 and 2016, the fourth-quarter collapse in 2018, COVID in 2020, or the rate-driven bear market in 2022.
Graphs are for illustrative and discussion purposes only. Please read important disclosures at the end of this commentary.
These are not comfortable environments. They are periods in which investors are uncertain and knocked off balance. Historically, the short-term behavior after these signals has not been clean. The first-week tends to be flat. Markets chop. Volatility remains elevated, as the market works through selling pressure.
But that pattern changes in short order. Three-months out, returns begin to skew positive. Six-months out, the trend strengthens. After two-years, the market is higher 98% of the time, with a median gain of 39.3%.
Graphs are for illustrative and discussion purposes only. Please read important disclosures at the end of this commentary.
That is the part of the data that stands out… The signal is strong:
Graphs are for illustrative and discussion purposes only. Please read important disclosures at the end of this commentary.
There is a caveat. The 2008 signals took longer to play out and came with deeper draw-downs along the way. That singular crisis is a reminder and warning: Strong signals do not eliminate risk in the near-term.
Which brings us back to where we are now.
Not everything is confirming this yet, but… Breadth has been slipping. The percentage of stocks above their 140-day moving average has fallen from around 64% in mid-March to the mid-40s this week. Fewer stocks are participating in the rally even as the index moves higher. That is a divergence worth watching.
So, the market is sending a mixed message: Flows suddenly turned positive and volatility collapsed. A high conviction reversal has already occurred. Breadth is weaker, and the broader trend is still stabilizing.
That tension is what makes this moment important.
The question now is straightforward, and the answer depends on how long a resolution for this Iran war drags out: Do inflows continue, or was April 8 a single burst of buying in an otherwise fragile market?
In most historical instances, institutional selling exhausts itself and is followed by aggressive buying – and the path forward tends to be higher over time.
It is not always immediate, nor smooth. But consistency is what we want to see. The opportunity is rarely obvious when it is happening, because it usually feels uncomfortable, uncertain, and incomplete.
That is exactly how this situation feels now. All eyes on flows, but with a bounce in the BMI, a vanishing of outflows, and a slight uptick in inflows, the storm might have passed.
We’ll see, but the lows are likely in.
As Jesse Livermore said, “The big money is not in the buying or the selling, but in the waiting.”
All content above represents the opinion of Jason Bodner of Navellier & Associates, Inc.
Also In This Issue
A Look Ahead by Louis Navellier
The Long-Term Outlook for Energy Prices
Income Mail by Bryan Perry
Buckle Up on the Road to a “Normal Nation State” in Iran
Growth Mail by Gary Alexander
On Taxes: The Laffer Curve in Action…and in the Arts
Global Mail by Ivan Martchev
This Ceasefire is Starting to Look Like a Failing Truce
Sector Spotlight by Jason Bodner
“Big Money” Buying Suddenly Revived Last Week
View Full Archive
Read Past Issues Here
Jason Bodner
MARKETMAIL EDITOR FOR SECTOR SPOTLIGHT
Jason Bodner writes Sector Spotlight in the weekly Marketmail publication and has authored several white papers for the company. He is also Co-Founder of Macro Analytics for Professionals which produces proprietary equity accumulation and distribution research for its clients. Previously, Mr. Bodner served as Director of European Equity Derivatives for Cantor Fitzgerald Europe in London, then moved to the role of Head of Equity Derivatives North America for the same company in New York. He also served as S.V.P. Equity Derivatives for Jefferies, LLC. He received a B.S. in business administration in 1996, with honors, from Skidmore College as a member of the Periclean Honors Society. All content of “Sector Spotlight” represents the opinion of Jason Bodner
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