Quarterly Outlook2019-02-19T11:31:45+00:00

Quarterly Outlook Archive

Each quarter I prepare my thoughts on where the market has been and which factors are likely to have the biggest impact on investments in the coming three months.

Second Quarter 2021

INVESTMENT COMMENTARY & Outlook July 2021 So far this year, dividend growth stocks have been the stars and are anticipated to continue to perform well due to collapsing bond yields. These same collapsing yields also helped our growth stocks in June after China did a commodity “dump” to squelch soaring material prices. We are clearly in an inflationary environment that is expected to persist due to accommodative central banks. The latest catalyst for bond yields collapsing [...]

July 13th, 2021|Categories: Quarterly Outlook|Tags: |

First Quarter 2021

INVESTMENT COMMENTARY & Outlook April 2021 Our growth portfolios oscillated with the interest-rate-driven rotation in the market in recent weeks, but finished March on a strong note thanks to quarter-end window dressing. Furthermore, this relative strength has continued in April and our growth portfolios seem truly excited about their upcoming first-quarter earnings announcements. We believe the average stock in our growth portfolio will post stunning sales and earnings growth in the upcoming weeks, as you can [...]

April 10th, 2021|Categories: Quarterly Outlook|Tags: |

Fourth Quarter 2020

INVESTMENT COMMENTARY & Outlook January 2021 The fourth quarter was the strongest quarter that we can remember for small-to-mid capitalization stocks. Essentially, many of our small-to-mid growth stocks “melted up” on light trading volume in an “early January effect.” These small-to-mid growth stocks, as well as many of our international growth stocks, have continued to perform well due to the “real January effect” that is caused by higher trading volume and fueled by new pension funding. [...]

January 12th, 2021|Categories: Quarterly Outlook|Tags: |

Third Quarter 2020

INVESTMENT COMMENTARY & Outlook October 2020 The third-quarter was quite interesting. The stock market experienced net redemptions but continued to rally on relatively light trading volume. Nowadays, Citadel’s algorithms largely control stock prices. So the question that we are asking ourselves is if the stock market can rally on light trading volume, then what happens when trading volume soars? As mentioned on a recent Navellier podcast, there is a lot of cash on the sidelines that [...]

October 16th, 2020|Categories: Quarterly Outlook|Tags: |

First Quarter 2020

INVESTMENT COMMENTARY & Outlook April 22, 2020 Our dividend growth and conservative growth stocks have rebounded impressively in the past four weeks. As we have said repeatedly, good stocks bounce right back and that is exactly what has happened since the late March lows. We expect to continue to sell selected stocks into strength as we concentrate on the crème de la crème and anticipate holding fewer stocks in the upcoming months due to the fact [...]

May 9th, 2020|Categories: Quarterly Outlook|Tags: |

Fourth Quarter 2019

INVESTMENT COMMENTARY & Outlook January 27, 2020 2019 was a year of great stock market performance and flat earnings. In some respects, it was the opposite of 2018 when earnings were up more than 20% while stocks were down. Yet if we take the averages for both years for both EPS growth and stock performance, the two years were pretty normal—on average. The 4th quarter of 2019 will be the last lackluster quarter for the S&P [...]

January 28th, 2020|Categories: Quarterly Outlook|Tags: |

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