April 2024

The S&P 500 had the best start to the year in the first quarter in the past 5 years. The average stock in the S&P 500 posted fourth-quarter sales and earnings that were 1.3% and 6.7%, respectively, better than the analyst community had anticipated. These impressive results were aided by easy year-over-year comparisons.
However, the analyst community has been revising their consensus estimates higher in the wake of these impressive sales and earnings surprises.

I expect the next two quarters to also have favorable year-over-year comparisons, so we are especially optimistic for the first and second quarter announcement seasons. Furthermore, we are anticipating coordinated central bank rate cuts from the Bank of England, the European Central Bank and the Fed. Finally, if the historical trading pattern persists, the rally should continue, right up to the November Presidential election.

Our growth portfolios are off the best start to the year in 25 years, when we had to two growth portfolios up roughly 100% back in 1999. To say we are excited for the prospects for 2024 is an understatement, since we appear to be in a perfect storm fueled by favorable year-over-years comparisons, accommodative central banks, and rising consumer confidence, as well as investor confident as the leading Presidential candidates promise everything and anything! In addition, backtesting our Stock Grader at …