Quarterly Outlook2019-02-19T11:31:45+00:00

Quarterly Outlook Archive

Each quarter I prepare my thoughts on where the market has been and which factors are likely to have the biggest impact on investments in the coming three months.

Fourth Quarter 2021

INVESTMENT COMMENTARY & Outlook January 2022 As 2022 has commenced, a rotational correction out of many powerful growth stocks into beaten up value stocks has been the New Year surprise. This is referred to as a “mean reversion rally” and will not be sustainable. In fact, most value rallies fizzle within four to six weeks. This time around, the initial weakness in NASDAQ this year caused CNBC’s Jim Cramer to tell investors to sell growth and [...]

January 11th, 2022|Categories: Quarterly Outlook|Tags: |

Third Quarter 2021

INVESTMENT COMMENTARY & Outlook October 2021 The third-quarter was essentially a “washing machine” where stocks “sloshed” around. The bumpy summer months are now over and the seasonally strong time of year is now here. October has been strong in the past 20, 50 and 100 years, according to our friends at Bespoke. November is even stronger, and December is also strong. The strongest seasonal month is actually January, when new pension money likes to pour into [...]

October 15th, 2021|Categories: Quarterly Outlook|Tags: |

Second Quarter 2021

INVESTMENT COMMENTARY & Outlook July 2021 So far this year, dividend growth stocks have been the stars and are anticipated to continue to perform well due to collapsing bond yields. These same collapsing yields also helped our growth stocks in June after China did a commodity “dump” to squelch soaring material prices. We are clearly in an inflationary environment that is expected to persist due to accommodative central banks. The latest catalyst for bond yields collapsing [...]

July 13th, 2021|Categories: Quarterly Outlook|Tags: |

First Quarter 2021

INVESTMENT COMMENTARY & Outlook April 2021 Our growth portfolios oscillated with the interest-rate-driven rotation in the market in recent weeks, but finished March on a strong note thanks to quarter-end window dressing. Furthermore, this relative strength has continued in April and our growth portfolios seem truly excited about their upcoming first-quarter earnings announcements. We believe the average stock in our growth portfolio will post stunning sales and earnings growth in the upcoming weeks, as you can [...]

April 10th, 2021|Categories: Quarterly Outlook|Tags: |

Fourth Quarter 2020

INVESTMENT COMMENTARY & Outlook January 2021 The fourth quarter was the strongest quarter that we can remember for small-to-mid capitalization stocks. Essentially, many of our small-to-mid growth stocks “melted up” on light trading volume in an “early January effect.” These small-to-mid growth stocks, as well as many of our international growth stocks, have continued to perform well due to the “real January effect” that is caused by higher trading volume and fueled by new pension funding. [...]

January 12th, 2021|Categories: Quarterly Outlook|Tags: |

Third Quarter 2020

INVESTMENT COMMENTARY & Outlook October 2020 The third-quarter was quite interesting. The stock market experienced net redemptions but continued to rally on relatively light trading volume. Nowadays, Citadel’s algorithms largely control stock prices. So the question that we are asking ourselves is if the stock market can rally on light trading volume, then what happens when trading volume soars? As mentioned on a recent Navellier podcast, there is a lot of cash on the sidelines that [...]

October 16th, 2020|Categories: Quarterly Outlook|Tags: |

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