Quarterly Outlook2019-02-19T11:31:45-08:00

Quarterly Outlook Archive

Each quarter I prepare my thoughts on where the market has been and which factors are likely to have the biggest impact on investments in the coming three months.

Fourth Quarter 2022

INVESTMENT COMMENTARY & Outlook January 2023 The fourth quarter started with several violent short covering rallies and helped to mark a definitive stock market bottom. Not only was October a strong month, but November also started on a positive note. The stock market temporarily lost its “mojo” in December after a hawkish FOMC statement and new interest rate fears emerged. The next Federal Open Market (FOMC) statement will be on February 1st, and we are anticipating [...]

January 13th, 2023|Categories: Quarterly Outlook|Tags: |

Third Quarter 2022

INVESTMENT COMMENTARY & Outlook October 2022 The third quarter was supposed to end on a positive note since the Fed’s September 21st key interest rate hike was supposed to be the last big 75 basis point increase. Unfortunately, the Fed is also shrinking its balance sheet by $95 billion per month and driving Treasury yields higher, so the Fed has to continue to raise key interest rates to “catch up” with market rates. In fact, all [...]

October 12th, 2022|Categories: Quarterly Outlook|Tags: |

Second Quarter 2022

INVESTMENT COMMENTARY & Outlook July 2022 Despite a horrible start to the year and all the talk about a recession, amazingly there is no “earnings recession.” The top-down strategists are completely out of sync with the boots on the ground analyst community, which is more positive. Frankly, the analyst community is smarter than the macro strategists that keep calling for a recession. As always, we are entering the second-quarter announcement season “locked and loaded” with strong [...]

July 8th, 2022|Categories: Quarterly Outlook|Tags: |

First Quarter 2022

INVESTMENT COMMENTARY & Outlook April 2022 The first quarter stumbled out of the gate, but finished strong during March’s quarter-end window dressing. The big change in the Navellier portfolios is that we have added companies we believe will profit from inflation to our portfolios. Specifically, energy, fertilizer, food, and shipping companies are more prevalent in our portfolios. These companies have pricing power and are benefitting from the stagflation that has enveloped the world in the wake [...]

April 20th, 2022|Categories: Quarterly Outlook|Tags: |

Fourth Quarter 2021

INVESTMENT COMMENTARY & Outlook January 2022 As 2022 has commenced, a rotational correction out of many powerful growth stocks into beaten up value stocks has been the New Year surprise. This is referred to as a “mean reversion rally” and will not be sustainable. In fact, most value rallies fizzle within four to six weeks. This time around, the initial weakness in NASDAQ this year caused CNBC’s Jim Cramer to tell investors to sell growth and [...]

January 11th, 2022|Categories: Quarterly Outlook|Tags: |

Third Quarter 2021

INVESTMENT COMMENTARY & Outlook October 2021 The third-quarter was essentially a “washing machine” where stocks “sloshed” around. The bumpy summer months are now over and the seasonally strong time of year is now here. October has been strong in the past 20, 50 and 100 years, according to our friends at Bespoke. November is even stronger, and December is also strong. The strongest seasonal month is actually January, when new pension money likes to pour into [...]

October 15th, 2021|Categories: Quarterly Outlook|Tags: |

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