Quarterly Outlook2019-02-19T11:31:45-08:00

Quarterly Outlook Archive

Each quarter I prepare my thoughts on where the market has been and which factors are likely to have the biggest impact on investments in the coming three months.

First Quarter 2024

INVESTMENT COMMENTARY & Outlook April 2024 The S&P 500 had the best start to the year in the first quarter in the past 5 years. The average stock in the S&P 500 posted fourth-quarter sales and earnings that were 1.3% and 6.7%, respectively, better than the analyst community had anticipated. These impressive results were aided by easy year-over-year comparisons. However, the analyst community has been revising their consensus estimates higher in the wake of these impressive [...]

April 8th, 2024|Categories: Quarterly Outlook|Tags: |

Fourth Quarter 2023

INVESTMENT COMMENTARY & Outlook January 2024 The good news is the stock market has responded positively to the fact that since October 19th, the 10-year Treasury bond yield peaked at 4.99% and has since fallen dramatically. Furthermore, at the December Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, the Fed revealed that the “dot plot” from all 17 FOMC members is signaling three rate cuts in 2024. Additionally, three to four rates cuts are anticipated in 2025 until [...]

January 9th, 2024|Categories: Quarterly Outlook|Tags: |

Third Quarter 2023

INVESTMENT COMMENTARY & Outlook October 2023 The good news is that we survived September and the threat of a federal government shutdown. The bad news is that we started October with surging Treasury bond yields, so concerns over out-of-control federal spending persist. The federal debt ceiling was lifted with a 45-day funding plan, and when it has to be renewed in November, it should pass, since Congressional members like to go home for Thanksgiving. The public [...]

October 18th, 2023|Categories: Quarterly Outlook|Tags: |

Second Quarter 2023

INVESTMENT COMMENTARY & Outlook July 2023 The breadth and power of the overall stock market improved notably in the second quarter. At the end of April, only eight NASDAQ stocks accounted for virtually all the S&P 500’s year-to-date return. At the end of May, twenty stocks accounted for virtually all the S&P 500’s year-to-date return as breadth and power improved. Then the annual June Russell reconstitution caused many small cap stocks to surge as liquidity improved. [...]

July 26th, 2023|Categories: Quarterly Outlook|Tags: |

First Quarter 2023

INVESTMENT COMMENTARY & Outlook April 2023 The first quarter had some dramatic developments but finished on a positive note. Thanks to the Silicon Valley Bank crisis, Treasury yields plunged and will likely cause the Fed to stop raising key interest rates. Although the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) raised key interest rates 0.25% as anticipated, this could be the last key interest rates hike. At his press conference after the FOMC statement Fed Chairman Jerome Powell [...]

April 10th, 2023|Categories: Quarterly Outlook|Tags: |

Fourth Quarter 2022

INVESTMENT COMMENTARY & Outlook January 2023 The fourth quarter started with several violent short covering rallies and helped to mark a definitive stock market bottom. Not only was October a strong month, but November also started on a positive note. The stock market temporarily lost its “mojo” in December after a hawkish FOMC statement and new interest rate fears emerged. The next Federal Open Market (FOMC) statement will be on February 1st, and we are anticipating [...]

January 13th, 2023|Categories: Quarterly Outlook|Tags: |

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