by Bryan Perry
September 19, 2023
Not much has changed in the past month to convince the markets that the Fed is completely done raising rates. Last week’s inflation and retail sales data, chip-sector theatrics, and a host of industry conferences did little to change that. All it did was raise the level of hand wringing before the Fed meeting this week.
About now, it would be nice to focus on end-of-quarter window dressing, fourth-quarter seasonality, a near-certain Fed pause on a rate hike, and what should be a pretty bullish third-quarter earnings season, but the market landscape bears some elements of caution for the very near term. Namely, bond yields are grinding higher, as Treasury auctions are seeing lower demand, oil prices are trading above $90 per barrel, the United Auto Workers strike reveals wide divisions among union leaders and management, the former and current U.S. Presidents are snarled in political investigations, the ECB is raising rates, and Congress appears to be on track to trigger a government shutdown on October 1, 2023, since it is not expected to pass the 12 appropriations bills that fund government operations before the start of the new fiscal year.
Graphs are for illustrative and discussion purposes only. Please read important disclosures at the end of this commentary.
So, should anyone be surprised that traders and investors hit the revolving doors in last Friday’s session? There’s also a lack of trust in American leadership. To say that America has large numbers of unqualified people in high places is a major understatement. For starters, the high-profile diplomatic trip to China by Secretary of Commerce Gina Riamondo and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, resulted in nothing of value.
On the home front, Congress faces yet another budget deadline by October 1, and once again there seems to be no regard for fiscal responsibility in Washington. The federal debt is spiraling higher, with the latest Treasury auctions being met with softer demand, implying that real rates will need to be high enough to attract buyers of U.S. debt, which currently stands at $32.6 trillion, the equivalent of almost $100,000 per U.S. citizen. Politicians have turned a blind eye, as if to ignore any bond market revolution, and that doesn’t even get into the oil markets, where the U.S. has little, if any, leverage in bringing prices down.
To be frank, I’m surprised that much of the time the market trades as well as it does, considering the incredible vacuum of integrity and leadership that exists on both sides of the U.S. aisle, as well as at the leadership pinnacle of the world’s most important foreign powers. Additionally, there is little mention of how Americans are piling on personal debt at a meteoric pace. While bankers and the financial media claim that U.S. household balance sheets are healthy, the hard data would argue otherwise.
Graphs are for illustrative and discussion purposes only. Please read important disclosures at the end of this commentary.
Outstanding auto loans in the U.S. are nearing $1.6 trillion, up 14-fold from 1980 and reaching an obscene number, considering that we’re talking about a rapidly depreciating asset. I suppose this number can be visualized by a costly new car. For example, the base price of some 2023 pickups is over $70,000. Car loans now extend out to 96 months (eight years). A 96-month loan with a 5% interest rate and 10% down ($7,000) commands a monthly payment over $1000 and so, buy my calculations, this will end up costing over $100,000. I think this borders on insanity, but I don’t make the rules, and it’s a free country. It also helps explain this red-flag type of chart.
Graphs are for illustrative and discussion purposes only. Please read important disclosures at the end of this commentary.
On the plus side, according to Investopedia, “Home equity in the United States is at an all-time record high, with the average mortgage holder now owning $185,000 in accessible home equity. That figure increased by 35% in 2021, fueled by a similarly rapid increase in house valuations. This is the fastest rate at which average U.S. home equity has ever grown—more than twice the rate of 2020, the previous high.” Clearly, the spike in home appreciation created an opportunity to tap home equity, but it does not resolve the personal, auto and student loan credit bubbles serviced with interest rates at 15-year highs.
Still, the largest form of consumer debt in the U.S. is mortgage debt at $12.04 trillion in the first quarter of 2023. Student debt is the second largest form of consumer debt at $1.77 trillion, followed by auto debt and credit card debt, noted above. The student loan repayment pause was stopped on June 30, 2023.
No wonder there’s a labor movement arising in multiple industries. Americans have some big bills to pay.
All content above represents the opinion of Bryan Perry of Navellier & Associates, Inc.
Also In This Issue
A Look Ahead by Louis Navellier
Inflation is Rapidly Receding – Except for Energy Prices
Income Mail by Bryan Perry
America Desperately Needs Lower Rates to Pay its Rising Bills
Growth Mail by Gary Alexander
Rising Debt, Fewer Workers and Slower Growth Since 2001 – Why?
Global Mail by Ivan Martchev
Bonds and the Dollar Suggest a Further Correction in Equities
Sector Spotlight by Jason Bodner
The Market Often Surges or Sinks on Misinterpreted Words
View Full Archive
Read Past Issues Here
Bryan Perry
SENIOR DIRECTOR
Bryan Perry is a Senior Director with Navellier Private Client Group, advising and facilitating high net worth investors in the pursuit of their financial goals.
Bryan’s financial services career spanning the past three decades includes over 20 years of wealth management experience with Wall Street firms that include Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers and Paine Webber, working with both retail and institutional clients. Bryan earned a B.A. in Political Science from Virginia Polytechnic Institute & State University and currently holds a Series 65 license. All content of “Income Mail” represents the opinion of Bryan Perry
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