by Jason Bodner
June 16, 2026
Last Friday, Elon Musk became the world’s first trillionaire. Pause on that number for a second. For most of financial history, a billion dollars was an almost incomprehensible number. The entire U.S. economy did not cross the $1-trillion mark until 1969, the year we landed men on the moon. The first trillion-dollar market cap for a single stock came in 2018. That’s when we got used to billionaires, mostly from the technology sector. The first person to be worth $100-billion was Bill Gates, in 1999. Now, one man is worth a trillion-dollars, as Musk’s SpaceX priced its IPO at $135 a share, then it opened well above that mark and ran as high as $168 before closing near $161, pushing Musk’s stake past the trillion-dollar line, on paper at least.
In August 2018, when Apple became the first publicly traded company in history worth a trillion-dollars, that was not a single person – it was a company with 42-years of product growth, hundreds of thousands of employees, a global supply chain and tens of billions in annual profit, but now one man has $1-trillion.
Here’s the catch. A trillion 2018 dollars isn’t a trillion in 2026 dollars. The dollar shrank a lot in between.
Cash may be over-rated. History shows cash in a mattress (or even in a bank) is a bad long-term bet:
Graphs are for illustrative and discussion purposes only. Please read important disclosures at the end of this commentary.
Where do we stand now? Our Big Money Index (BMI), with its 25-day lagging value, has been sliding for six weeks before the selloff, falling from roughly 73% at the end of April to just over 60% by June 4, even as the S&P kept grinding up to new highs. The June 5 drop wasn’t really a “bolt from nowhere.” It was the moment when market values finally caught up to what the flows had been saying for a month.
Graphs are for illustrative and discussion purposes only. Please read important disclosures at the end of this commentary.
A more interesting question is what happened last week – after the Friday (June 5) selloff. June 8 was a quiet digestion day. Then June 9 and June 11 produced the two strongest single-day inflow readings of the entire seven-week stretch, with June 11 becoming the strongest date this year. That day, NASDAQ ripped up more than 2.5% and the S&P rallied nearly 1.8%. When markets are genuinely breaking, money leaves and stays gone. That’s not what this looked like. Buyers showed up fast, and in size, right at the lows.
The rotation underneath was just as telling. In the last week, financials and real estate led inflows, with healthcare and discretionary close behind, while materials saw the sharpest outflows, by a wide margin.
Graphs are for illustrative and discussion purposes only. Please read important disclosures at the end of this commentary.
ETF data filled in the picture: gold, silver, platinum, palladium, bitcoin funds, ethereum funds, even short-duration Treasuries and TIPS all saw money walk out the door in the same stretch that stocks wobbled.
Graphs are for illustrative and discussion purposes only. Please read important disclosures at the end of this commentary.
That’s not a classic flight to safety profile. It’s closer to raising cash and then figuring out where to put it. The redeployment followed quickly, going into high-dividend ETFs, REITs, regional banks, healthcare and dividend aristocrats – names you buy when you think the market is finding its footing, not collapsing.
History offers some context, with the usual caveats. Since 1990, NASDAQ has seen 99 single day drops of 4% or more. Stripping out the genuine crises – 2000’s dot-com bubble, the 2008 financial crisis, 2020’s COVID and 9/11, the remaining 30 cases averaged a 31.6% gain over the following year, winning 93% of the time. Narrow it to the 10 clearest comparisons – sharp drops in otherwise healthy markets – and the average one-year return climbs to nearly 30%, with a perfect record. That’s a small sample, but the shape of the market last week, with a sharp one-day shock followed almost immediately by aggressive buying, looks a lot more like June 2016’s Brexit selloff than anything from 2008 or 2020.
Graphs are for illustrative and discussion purposes only. Please read important disclosures at the end of this commentary.
Here’s the golden thread that ties all these facts together: The old regime was a market that looked calm on the surface while conviction quietly drained away for six-weeks. The new regime arrived in under 48-hours, loudly, and got bought just as fast. Daily swings are noise. The flows confirmed appetite, not fear, rotating toward the parts of the market that benefit once a shake-out gives way to stabilization.
Even SpaceX’s debut fits the theme: in an anxious week with headlines about everything that could go wrong, capital markets just wrote the largest check in history on a bet about the future.
As Mark Twain put it, “history doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes.” This week didn’t rhyme with 2008 or 2020. It rhymed with the kind of week that, a year later, you wish you’d bought more of.
Navellier & Associates; own Apple Inc. (AAPL) in some managed accounts. Navellier & Associates do not own Space Exploration Technology Corp (SPCX) in managed accounts. Jason Bodner does not own Apple Inc. (AAPL) or Space Exploration Technology Corp (SPCX) personally.
All content above represents the opinion of Jason Bodner of Navellier & Associates, Inc.
Also In This Issue
A Look Ahead by Louis Navellier
The ECB Raises Rates – to Bring Inflation Down?
Income Mail by Bryan Perry
The Countdown to “Q-Day” Begins
Growth Mail by Gary Alexander
Freedom and Capitalism Can Still Boost the Wealth of Nations
Global Mail by Ivan Martchev
This Market Looks Like a “Best-Case Scenario”
Sector Spotlight by Jason Bodner
Elon Musk’s Wealth Soars “To Infinity and Beyond”
View Full Archive
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Jason Bodner
MARKETMAIL EDITOR FOR SECTOR SPOTLIGHT
Jason Bodner writes Sector Spotlight in the weekly Marketmail publication and has authored several white papers for the company. He is also Co-Founder of Macro Analytics for Professionals which produces proprietary equity accumulation and distribution research for its clients. Previously, Mr. Bodner served as Director of European Equity Derivatives for Cantor Fitzgerald Europe in London, then moved to the role of Head of Equity Derivatives North America for the same company in New York. He also served as S.V.P. Equity Derivatives for Jefferies, LLC. He received a B.S. in business administration in 1996, with honors, from Skidmore College as a member of the Periclean Honors Society. All content of “Sector Spotlight” represents the opinion of Jason Bodner
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