Quarterly Outlook2019-02-19T11:31:45-08:00

Quarterly Outlook Archive

Each quarter I prepare my thoughts on where the market has been and which factors are likely to have the biggest impact on investments in the coming three months.

Third Quarter 2023

INVESTMENT COMMENTARY & Outlook October 2023 The good news is that we survived September and the threat of a federal government shutdown. The bad news is that we started October with surging Treasury bond yields, so concerns over out-of-control federal spending persist. The federal debt ceiling was lifted with a 45-day funding plan, and when it has to be renewed in November, it should pass, since Congressional members like to go home for Thanksgiving. The public [...]

October 18th, 2023|Categories: Quarterly Outlook|Tags: |

Second Quarter 2023

INVESTMENT COMMENTARY & Outlook July 2023 The breadth and power of the overall stock market improved notably in the second quarter. At the end of April, only eight NASDAQ stocks accounted for virtually all the S&P 500’s year-to-date return. At the end of May, twenty stocks accounted for virtually all the S&P 500’s year-to-date return as breadth and power improved. Then the annual June Russell reconstitution caused many small cap stocks to surge as liquidity improved. [...]

July 26th, 2023|Categories: Quarterly Outlook|Tags: |

First Quarter 2023

INVESTMENT COMMENTARY & Outlook April 2023 The first quarter had some dramatic developments but finished on a positive note. Thanks to the Silicon Valley Bank crisis, Treasury yields plunged and will likely cause the Fed to stop raising key interest rates. Although the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) raised key interest rates 0.25% as anticipated, this could be the last key interest rates hike. At his press conference after the FOMC statement Fed Chairman Jerome Powell [...]

April 10th, 2023|Categories: Quarterly Outlook|Tags: |

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