by Ivan Martchev
July 14, 2026
This headline is a “teaser” (I hope it got your attention), but to be honest with you I don’t have a clue as to the answer. How do you value the assets of about 8.3 billion people and a livable planet that is 4.54 billion years old – give or take 50 million years? But the question came up in an Elon Musk tweet, July 9:
“SpaceX will be worth more than the rest of Earth if we accomplish our goals.” – Elon Musk
The key here is the little word “if” attached to his “goals.” That sure is a big “if,” the biggest “if” of any company trying to talk about the future. I like the fact that SpaceX wants to turn humanity into an interplanetary species. I like the fact he’s taking the fiction out of “science fiction.” Among his goals, they want to build a city on the Moon and later on Mars. That is fine and dandy, but I think it will take a few years, maybe decades, and share prices are about discounting future cash-flows. Those cities on the Moon and Mars are hard to discount, to put it mildly, as they certainly won’t happen within the next year or two.
Graphs are for illustrative and discussion purposes only. Please read important disclosures at the end of this commentary.
Musk wants to generate $1 trillion in revenues by 2030. If anyone can do it, Elon Musk can, but we are in a foggy period now, before any plans of how he is going to get there have become public, which is why on Friday SPCX stock traded at its lowest level reached in the secondary market with a trade of $145.07 (the IPO price was $135). I gave you my read of the situation before SPCX became a public company, simply because I’ve had to field a lot of questions about the stock, as it generates keen investor interest.
The leveraged ETF community has noticed this investor interest and has listed five 2X leveraged bullish single-stock ETFs on SpaceX, and one bearish-inverse ETF. I find the idea of single-stock 2X exchange-traded funds absurd. What type of a “fund” would hold only one stock?! And piling this 2X leverage on top of an already-volatile security is only going to make it more volatile.
If Elon Musk divulges more plans of how he will get to $1 trillion in revenues by 2030, and investors see credible corporate action, the stock will probably rally. If, however, his nebulous trillion-dollar plans are confined to cryptic tweets, then the breaking of the IPO price of $135 is all but a foregone conclusion.
Many point out Tesla’s spectacular growth after it became public in 2010, but few bothered to look up Tesla’s market cap at its IPO price – it was only $1.7 billion, while SpaceX’s debut price was 1,000+ times higher, at $1.75 trillion. Tesla grew dramatically since 2010, while SpaceX is already at a huge market cap. Investors will get a better grip on what SpaceX is worth after a huge part of the lockups expire in the August-December period and we get more details on his interplanetary exploration plans.
Right now, with only 4.3% of the float trading and the stock not acting well, if we get an escalation in the Iranian war, which seems to be happening as of this writing (on Sunday), the shares are headed towards $100. If we use SpaceX’s share price purely as a sentiment indicator, recent action indicates overall investor skittishness — indicating further declines in the stock (and the overall market) may be in store.
I think most investors hoped by now they would see some progress in the Iranian negotiations. Instead, the President has declared the truce “dead,” and the U.S. is trading strikes with the Iranians at an accelerating rate. The price of crude oil, Treasury bonds, or the level of the S&P 500 index do not suggest all is lost, indicating some hope these latest eruptions are simply skirmishes. But what if they aren’t?
I can’t handicap the Iranian situation (can anyone?). I know the White House wants it over, as it is too close to November’s mid-term elections. The Iranians are dragging their feet on purpose to get a better deal, and I know Israel would prefer to do as much damage as possible. Although no regime change is likely, given what we have witnessed so far, I am not sure what is the point of more bombing.
Graphs are for illustrative and discussion purposes only. Please read important disclosures at the end of this commentary.
So far, what we have experienced in the stock market is a normal consolidation after a sharp rally. As bad as these vicious rotations feel on single days, indexes have not broken down enough to suggest a deeper correction. Both the Dow and the S&P 500 (equal weight variety) indexes made all-time highs early last week. If Iran does not explode, literally, maybe all we are going to get is a benign sideways consolidation before second-quarter earnings kick in mid-July and into August. Earnings are expected to be up ~25%.
If Iran does explode, literally, we have to play it day by day. There is room for a bigger sell-off in the next three-weeks, if we see bad Iranian headlines. The President moved the S&P 500 by 50-points with a single TruthSocial post on Friday. I have seen him move the S&P 200-points in either direction with his posts. It looks like we must remain on alert for word bombs emanating from the President’s Truth Social account.
Graphs are for illustrative and discussion purposes only. Please read important disclosures at the end of this commentary.
We also need to keep a close eye on the PHLX Semiconductor Index (SOX), as it kept making progress despite rotation out of technology, until recently. Yes, there are memory shortages, and yes, many of the components are trading at dirt cheap P/Es due to surging profits, but there is also record leverage from margin debt and exploding option volumes, which may push a normal correction a lot deeper when it gets going. A couple of closes below 11,960 (the July lows) probably mean a much deeper correction for the SOX and the broader market, so the 12,000 level on the SOX is as close to a line in the sand as it gets.
Navellier & Associates; do not own Space Exploration Technology Corp (SPCX) in managed accounts. A few accounts own Tesla (TSLA) per client request. Ivan Marchev does not own Space Exploration Technology Corp (SPCX) or SK Hynix ADR (SKHYV) personally.
All content above represents the opinion of Ivan Martchev of Navellier & Associates, Inc.
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Income Mail by Bryan Perry
Q2 Earnings Season May Deliver a Major Market Tailwind
Growth Mail by Gary Alexander
Report from America’s Big Birthday Bash in Vegas
Global Mail by Ivan Martchev
What is Planet Earth Worth?
Sector Spotlight by Jason Bodner
Is the Stock Market “Cavitating” On Us?
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Ivan Martchev
INVESTMENT STRATEGIST
Ivan Martchev is an investment strategist with Navellier. Previously, Ivan served as editorial director at InvestorPlace Media. Ivan was editor of Louis Rukeyser’s Mutual Funds and associate editor of Personal Finance. Ivan is also co-author of The Silk Road to Riches (Financial Times Press). The book provided analysis of geopolitical issues and investment strategy in natural resources and emerging markets with an emphasis on Asia. The book also correctly predicted the collapse in the U.S. real estate market, the rise of precious metals, and the resulting increased investor interest in emerging markets. Ivan’s commentaries have been published by MSNBC, The Motley Fool, MarketWatch, and others. All content of “Global Mail” represents the opinion of Ivan Martchev
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