by Jason Bodner
July 7, 2026
In May of 2012, a hot social media company went public at $38 a share, briefly piercing $45 then it spent the next 16-months falling by 54%. Analysts questioned their business model. Advertisers doubted whether its mobile advertising platform would ever work. The IPO quickly became a cautionary tale.
Today, that company– is worth roughly $1.5-trillion.
Markets rarely turn because of a headline or instant analysis. They turn because institutional money quietly changes direction long before headlines catch up, so I spend my time studying the money flows.
The lesson isn’t how the story of where they ended. It’s that almost nobody believed in it when profit opportunities were the best. By the time Wall Street embraced it, much of the move was in the past.
SpaceX feels familiar to me. The company went public just three weeks ago at $135. It quickly rallied to $225, and has since pulled back to around $158, roughly 30% below its peak. Investors who were hoping the SpaceX IPO would lift the entire market were left disappointed… so far.
June ended almost exactly the way history says June usually does. The S&P 500 slipped by about 1%, as average daily returns were essentially flat, and the index experienced a 4.7% peak-to-trough decline.

Since 1990, June has averaged a gain of just 0.12%, with only 57% of those months finishing positively.
History doesn’t tell us, in advance, what happens next. It tells us what happened most often in the past.
July, on the other hand, has historically been the market’s strongest summer month, with S&P 500 average gains of 1.46%, with positive returns about two-thirds of the time.

Source: moneyflows.com
Graphs are for illustrative and discussion purposes only. Please read important disclosures at the end of this commentary.
This year, July arrived with an additional catalyst. SpaceX is scheduled to join the NASDAQ 100 on July 7, forcing every ETF tracking that index to become a buyer. That’s a source of automatic demand from some of the largest pools of institutional capital in the world.
The latest money flows suggest institutions are already positioning for exactly that.
One of the biggest advantages individual investors have is time. Institutions rarely buy everything in a single day. They build positions over weeks and sometimes months. That’s exactly why we track money flows. They’re less about predicting tomorrow’s headline and more about recognizing when the smartest capital in the market has quietly begun changing directions in their buying and selling targets.
Last week opened with three consecutive days of strong inflows, the first time in the last few months in which all major growth sectors moved higher together. Technology led the way, driven by semiconductor equipment and cyber-security. Those aren’t speculative AI trades. They build the main AI infrastructure.

Graphs are for illustrative and discussion purposes only. Please read important disclosures at the end of this commentary.
Healthcare remained strong for a third-straight week, with buying concentrated in genomics, diagnostics, and clinical-stage biotech rather than in defensive pharmaceutical companies. Financials extended their streak to a fourth consecutive week of positive inflows across banks, insurers, and capital markets.

Graphs are for illustrative and discussion purposes only. Please read important disclosures at the end of this commentary.
Meanwhile, energy is a clear source of pain. Oil services and tanker companies continued to see persistent outflows, as Brent crude settled near $71, down 37% from its May peak. This rotation tells a consistent story. Capital is moving to tomorrow’s infrastructure and away from cycles that dominated yesterday.

Graphs are for illustrative and discussion purposes only. Please read important disclosures at the end of this commentary.
Our indicators reinforce that message. Our 25-day composite Big Money Index (BMI) remains above 64%, reflecting a healthy accumulation phase. The VIX has fallen back near 16.5, while NASDAQ opened the week with gains of over 2% on Monday and 1.5% on Tuesday.

Graphs are for illustrative and discussion purposes only. Please read important disclosures at the end of this commentary.
Second-quarter earnings season begins soon, and the backdrop remains great. Last quarter, 84% of S&P 500 companies beat earnings estimates and 81% exceeded revenue expectations, both well above their 10-year averages of 76% beating EPS and 67% beating revenues. We believe companies building AI systems, optical networking, semiconductor equipment and memory remain well-positioned in this market.
Stepping back, the bigger picture hasn’t changed. June was soft, in part because June is usually soft. SpaceX stumbled after an exciting debut, but that isn’t unusual. Meta fell 54% from its IPO high before becoming one of the most valuable companies in history. Great businesses rarely move in straight lines. Excitement fades. Expectations reset. Then the underlying business takes over.
History also reminds us not to be complacent about any short-term move by expanding our time horizon.
Mid-term election years have historically been the weakest and most volatile year of the four-year presidential cycle, averaging just 5.8% annual returns and roughly 16% intra-year drawdowns. The encouraging part is that most of that weakness has historically occurred before October. Since 1926, the fourth quarter of mid-term years has averaged a 7% gain with positive returns 88% of the time. Better yet, since 1950, the S&P 500 has averaged a remarkable 36% one-year return from its midterm-year low.
In other words, expect volatility through seasonally weak August and September, but don’t mistake that for a broken bull-market. History suggests the strongest part of the cycle often comes afterward:

Graphs are for illustrative and discussion purposes only. Please read important disclosures at the end of this commentary.
That’s one reason why I pay more attention to institutional money flows than the noisy daily headlines.
Money flows continue to improve. Earnings season is almost here. July has history on its side. August and September may test investors’ patience, but if the presidential cycle follows its familiar script, the fourth-quarter could deliver a lot to be thankful for.
Happy 250th Birthday, America!
Navellier & Associates; do not own Space Exploration Technology Corp (SPCX) in managed accounts. Jason Bodner does not own Space Exploration Technology Corp (SPCX) personally.
All content above represents the opinion of Jason Bodner of Navellier & Associates, Inc.
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Emerging Market Debt Now Seen As a “Go To” for Income
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America is Still the Economic Engine of the World
Global Mail by Ivan Martchev
This Tech Rotation is as Bad as it Gets
Sector Spotlight by Jason Bodner
Ignore the Headlines – Focus on the Inner Market Data
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Jason Bodner
MARKETMAIL EDITOR FOR SECTOR SPOTLIGHT
Jason Bodner writes Sector Spotlight in the weekly Marketmail publication and has authored several white papers for the company. He is also Co-Founder of Macro Analytics for Professionals which produces proprietary equity accumulation and distribution research for its clients. Previously, Mr. Bodner served as Director of European Equity Derivatives for Cantor Fitzgerald Europe in London, then moved to the role of Head of Equity Derivatives North America for the same company in New York. He also served as S.V.P. Equity Derivatives for Jefferies, LLC. He received a B.S. in business administration in 1996, with honors, from Skidmore College as a member of the Periclean Honors Society. All content of “Sector Spotlight” represents the opinion of Jason Bodner
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