by Bryan Perry

June 27, 2023

It is being reported by media outlets that the Wagner Group rebellion led by Yevgeny Prigozhin against Vladimir Putin and the Russian military is somehow negative for global financial markets. Hogwash. Nothing could be more bullish than seeing the Russian conventional and private paramilitary terrorist forces self-destruct from within. The revolt could morph into an ugly end to the Ukraine war.

Yevgeny Prigozhin was in Putin’s inner circle going back to the George W. Bush administration, starting in the hospitality business, code name “Putin’s chef.” Go figure. What an oxymoron. When Prigozhin became the leader of Wagner, it was a hush-hush shadow force that the Kremlin initially denied knowing anything about. Unlike most western private military groups for hire, Wagner is made up of tens of thousands of prison convicts turned into mercenaries that massacre and rape civilians, exploit and loot natural resources, and conduct various other atrocities under conditions of plausible deniability.

The Wagner Group is anything but a private military company, but rather a state-backed military cartel with global tentacles, including operations beyond Ukraine – highly present in four continents, including active operations in Syria and Africa, where they rely on their reputation for brutality, fully qualifying as a foreign terrorist organization. Wagner is the euphemism for Russia’s secret war company gone rogue in Ukraine, and now the rabid dogs of war have seemingly turned on their owner, because the owner failed to keep the feeding bowl full, meaning that Wagner’s supply of ammunition to carry out the Kremlin’s deeds was depleted by 70%, according to live interviews by Prigozhin, costing his forces huge losses.

The Wall Street Journal investigated the Wagner Group and found no less than 64 companies and other fronts were linked back to the Kremlin. Those monies were used to finance Wagner’s salaries and weaponry, literally everything a military would need without officially being tied to the state. So, there was a high level of mutual trust that had developed between Putin and Prigozhin. And now this marriage is going through a nasty divorce that could result in the kind of chaos that derails Putin’s plan to conquer Ukraine. Without the military support of Wagner, Russia’s war effort in Ukraine is severely weakened.

As of Saturday, Wagner’s forces halted their march on Moscow after the authoritarian Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko brokered a deal between Putin and the rebels, averting an armed confrontation that threatened to plunge the country into civil war. At the core of the cease fire, everyone gets amnesty. At the inner core, Putin is deferring to negotiate terms of a stand down. The tentative truce was the latest twist in a tumultuous set of events that raised serious questions about Putin’s hold on power and underscored tensions with Kremlin insiders and armed forces. As I see it, a preferred outcome would have been to see pure evil take on pure evil in mutual annihilation, followed by the unleashing of a new democracy.


I believe, the world would be a much better place without Putin, the Kremlin, and the Wagner Group, kind of like the ending scene in “Enemy of The State,” where all the bad guys die in a hail of gunfire. Too bad this horror movie in Ukraine must continue. In my opinion, the only government more corrupt than Russia in that part of the world is Ukraine. So, why are we spending tens of billions of taxpayer dollars on this war? Because Anthony Blinken and assorted utopian academics thought it best to try to force Ukraine’s entry into the EU and NATO without fully understanding Russia’s desire to avoid being surrounded by armed enemies.

But alas, we won’t be so fortunate, at least in the short term, per the brokered deal over the weekend, but these events clearly show major internal fissures in Putin’s power structure and the demoralization of Russian defenses after 16 months of fighting in Ukraine and the ease with which the Wagner group seized the city of Rostov, home to about one million people, where there was almost no resistance by Russian forces. I believe, this latest uprising by Putin’s shadow paramilitary company is a bullish event for markets.

Global economies have already adjusted for the initial negative impact of the Ukraine war. Commodity prices are trending lower as are shipping rates. Global supply chains have been normalized for the most part and comparable year-over-year inflation data is about to reflect some serious declines. Last year in the June-August timeframe, inflation peaked at 9%. The upcoming data will likely show inflation hovering around 4% or lower, which should heavily influence the Fed at the July 30 FOMC meeting.

War is never a topic of pleasant discussion, as thousands of innocent people become victims, paying the ultimate price. This is why I believe, a destabilization and overthrow of the Russian government would be a 10-fold greater good than the collapse of East Germany, providing the Biden administration with a get-out-of-jail free card for this costly war, in which American interest and support has been nominal, at best.

As far as the global markets are concerned, there is the old saying that “desperate men do desperate things,” and Putin has probably entered that desperation zone. But I don’t think the members of his inner circle care to be hanging from a rope under the bridges of Moscow when the next revolution takes place.

In this case, not knowing how it will all play out, it is my view that global equity markets would likely rally big time with regime change; China’s market would tank, and history would celebrate the moment.

Is it possible? Absolutely.

All content above represents the opinion of Bryan Perry of Navellier & Associates, Inc.

Please see important disclosures below.

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About The Author

Bryan Perry

Bryan Perry

Bryan Perry is a Senior Director with Navellier Private Client Group, advising and facilitating high net worth investors in the pursuit of their financial goals.

Bryan’s financial services career spanning the past three decades includes over 20 years of wealth management experience with Wall Street firms that include Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers and Paine Webber, working with both retail and institutional clients. Bryan earned a B.A. in Political Science from Virginia Polytechnic Institute & State University and currently holds a Series 65 license. All content of “Income Mail” represents the opinion of Bryan Perry

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