by Jason Bodner

April 9, 2024

Noah’s Ark is a tale of one man’s family (and two of each species) surviving a mass cataclysm, a flood.

Interestingly, though, Noah’s family was not alone. A similar story of mass cataclysm (usually a flood, sometimes a fire), destroying the Earth appears in 70 different cultures around the world. They all share the theme of only a handful of humans surviving a terrible disaster. It’s a shared myth across continents.

Noahs Ark Photo 1

Traditional wisdom has the cradle of civilization beginning in Samaria about 6,000 years ago. Prior to that, we were Neanderthals … or so the theory goes. But other theories have emerged in the last 30 years that suggest a lost civilization between the two. The prime proponent of this theory is Graham Hancock. For decades, many prominent archaeologists taunted him by saying: “Show me one shred of proof of evidence of a civilization prior to 6,000 years ago and we will reconsider your theories.’

His cause was lonely and unvindicated… until Gobekli Tepi was unearthed in modern Turkey. It is a megalithic site confirmed to be intentionally buried 12,800 years ago. And now, more evidence is popping up to support his claims. Rain erosion at the Sphinx suggests it was around a lot longer than the accepted 4,500 years ago. Water erosion evidence suggests it could have been staring down at us 11,000 years ago.

The Sphinx Photo 1

Do I have the answers? Sorry, I can offer no proof. I am no archaeologist, but I concede, as a scientist, that it is possible. The whole point of science is to keep proving prior science wrong until we arrive at what we believe to be truth. Still, any new truths are subject to scrutiny and further possibility of disproof.

You see, that’s the trouble with dogmas, any truth that we take as law. It is right until it is proven wrong. Consider how much we have learned about our planet and solar system in the last 100 years.

That’s sometimes how it must feel looking at the stock market through the lens of my unusual bank of data. Using my proprietary system to rank stocks and isolate unusual money flows makes perfect sense to me, but it can fly in the face of mainstream accepted “facts” about how stocks and markets ‘should’ work.

Several people reached out to me last week regarding the volatility and price action of the past few days. They were concerned and wondering what I thought about the news, which is rife with negativity. Middle East tensions continue to heat up. Oil surged. The fed language from Neel Kashkari splashed cold water on what seemed like a nice run for stocks. The media would have us believe that a crash is on its way.

Should we start building an Ark for our family (and pets, and maybe some trusted friends)?

From my perspective, the answer lies in whether there has been a shift in money flows. The answer, in short, is that there has NOT been such a shift. So, let’s check in on the facts, first in chart form.

The Big Money Index (BMI) continues to meander sideways after falling from overbought in December:

Big Money Index Chart 1

Graphs are for illustrative and discussion purposes only. Please read important disclosures at the end of this commentary.

Clearly the market has remained strong since falling from overbought. The latest dip, however, got some nerves rattled. To contextualize, let’s see if there was an uptick in unusual selling. In the charts below, we can see that the weather looks great in both stocks and ETFs: No big increase in unusually large selling:

Big Money Stock-ETF Chart 1

Graphs are for illustrative and discussion purposes only. Please read important disclosures at the end of this commentary.

One crucial aspect of creating an unusual sell signal in our data is that a security must breach an 11-week low, accompanied by abnormal volume and volatility. There’s nothing to speak of in that regard. Even when we look at market cap, we see nothing to be concerned about, as buying outnumbers selling:

Big Buying-Selling Chart 1

Graphs are for illustrative and discussion purposes only. Please read important disclosures at the end of this commentary.

The next place to monitor is the sector action. First, we look into the ranking of sectors:

Sector Table 1

Graphs are for illustrative and discussion purposes only. Please read important disclosures at the end of this commentary.

Energy remains on top while technology continues to slip. Energy buying continues to be strong, but it’s important to note, that tech isn’t falling in the ranks because it’s soft… rather it’s falling because it’s less strong than it was before. We can see that in the chart below: Unusual buying has just slowed down.

Energy vs XLE Charts 1

Real Estate Chart 1

Graphs are for illustrative and discussion purposes only. Please read important disclosures at the end of this commentary.

You’ll also notice that technically, each sector chart continues to look strong. I see no clear price “breaks” to worry about. And when we factor in unusual buying outweighing selling, there’s no reason for concern. If anything, we may be overdue for a pullback, however the BMI is not in overbought territory and continues to glide along around 70%. That’s a healthy clip of buying.

In other words, over the past 25 days, 70% of all signals are unusual buys. That’s good – not bad.

If you need further evidence of how we humans focus our attention, check this out…here are two charts of the NASDAQ. One reflects the news of rate cuts potentially coming in 2024. The other reflects the news of a 4.7 magnitude earthquake hitting New York City. Which do you think is which?

IXIC Chart 1

Graphs are for illustrative and discussion purposes only. Please read important disclosures at the end of this commentary.

I’m sure you know by now the rapid decline in the chart on the left was the response to potential rate cut delays. The rise on the right was on a hot jobs report that coincided with an earthquake near New York.

That’s wild. Talk about 0.25% in short-term rates is a market mover, not an earthquake.

Did a technologically sophisticated civilization predate ours? Maybe, I’m not sure… Does the news really run the markets? Or is it the money flows? I think I know the answer there.

“You cannot believe in God until you believe in yourself.” – Swami Vivekananda

All content above represents the opinion of Jason Bodner of Navellier & Associates, Inc.

Please see important disclosures below.

Also In This Issue

Global Mail by Ivan Martchev
With 10-Year Treasuries At 4.4%, How High is Too High?

Sector Spotlight by Jason Bodner
No April Showers on the Horizon

View Full Archive
Read Past Issues Here

About The Author

Jason Bodner

Jason Bodner writes Sector Spotlight in the weekly Marketmail publication and has authored several white papers for the company. He is also Co-Founder of Macro Analytics for Professionals which produces proprietary equity accumulation/distribution research for its clients. Previously, Mr. Bodner served as Director of European Equity Derivatives for Cantor Fitzgerald Europe in London, then moved to the role of Head of Equity Derivatives North America for the same company in New York. He also served as S.V.P. Equity Derivatives for Jefferies, LLC. He received a B.S. in business administration in 1996, with honors, from Skidmore College as a member of the Periclean Honors Society. All content of “Sector Spotlight” represents the opinion of Jason Bodner

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Jason Bodner is a co-founder and co-owner of Mapsignals. Mr. Bodner is an independent contractor who is occasionally hired by Navellier & Associates to write an article and or provide opinions for possible use in articles that appear in Navellier & Associates weekly Market Mail. Mr. Bodner is not employed or affiliated with Louis Navellier, Navellier & Associates, Inc., or any other Navellier owned entity. The opinions and statements made here are those of Mr. Bodner and not necessarily those of any other persons or entities. This is not an endorsement, or solicitation or testimonial or investment advice regarding the BMI Index or any statements or recommendations or analysis in the article or the BMI Index or Mapsignals or its products or strategies.

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