by Louis Navellier

November 21, 2023

Inflation was indeed “transitory,” although it lasted longer than the Fed originally meant by that word.

The good news is that consumer inflation is fading fast. The better news is that producer prices actually declined last month, and the best news is that this means the Federal Reserve is done raising key rates.

First, the Labor Department announced last Tuesday that its Consumer Price Index (CPI) was unchanged in October and rose by just 3.2% in the past 12 months. The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose 0.2% in October and 4% in the past 12 months. Shelter costs (owner’s equivalent rent) rose only 0.3% in October, down from 0.6% in September, which is encouraging. Also notable is that used vehicles dropped 0.8% in October and declined by 7.1% in the past 12 months. Overall, the CPI was below economists’ expectations, so Treasury yields all along the yield curve have declined sharply, which is very bullish!

On Wednesday, the Labor Department announced that its Producer Price Index (PPI) actually declined 0.5% in October and rose just 1.3% in the past 12 months. Wholesale gasoline prices declined 15.3% in October and accounted for over 80% of the net decline, while the core PPI, excluding food, energy and trade margins, was unchanged in October and rose 2.3% in the past year. Wholesale service costs were unchanged after rising for six months; so, overall, the PPI was much better than economists had expected.

I should add that the Labor Department, on Thursday, announced that the prices of imports also declined 0.8% in October, which is the first monthly decline since June, giving evidence of deflationary pressures.

This October collapse in America’s import prices and wholesale prices is partly due to the fact that we have been importing deflation from China, as China has reported actual deflation in its consumer prices, with a net -0.2% price decline in October. As America’s CPI and wholesale costs continue to cool, inflation is expected to continue to fall, raising hopes for the Fed to start cutting rates in early 2024.

The other big news last Wednesday was that the Commerce Department announced that U.S. retail sales declined -0.1% in October, which was better than the economists’ consensus expectation of a -0.3% drop. This was the first decline in retail sales since last March. Seven of 13 major categories reported a sales decline in October, led by furniture, vehicle sales and gas station sales. Grocery store sales rose 0.65% in October, but higher food prices likely boosted that figure. Health and personal care spending rose 1.06% in October, which bodes well for e.l.f. Beauty. In the past 12 months, retail sales have risen 2.5%, but that is behind the 12-month CPI inflation total, so that explains why consumer sentiment has turned sour.

Target surged on Wednesday after its third-quarter earnings beat estimates. However, Target also reported a 4.9% same store sales decline. Target’s CEO Brian Cornell described a “resilient” consumer managing to endure numerous financial headwinds – from student loan repayments to nagging inflation. Good inventory management and strong operating margins remain keys to profitability in the retail industry.

Another reason for the Fed to consider cutting rates is that the Labor Department on Thursday announced weekly unemployment claims rose to 231,000 in the latest week, up from a revised 218,000 for the previous week. This is the highest weekly claims for unemployment since August, so it appears hiring for the holiday shopping season could be below normal. Continuing unemployment claims rose to 1.865 million in the latest week, up from a revised 1.832 million in the previous week. This is the highest level for continuing unemployment claims in almost two years, since the week of November 27, 2021.

The other economic news, on Thursday, was that the Fed announced factory output declined 0.7% in October, the biggest drop in the past four months. A 10% decline in motor vehicle output, due to the UAW strike, exaggerated the drop in October factory orders. Excluding autos, factory output actually rose 0.1%.

Some Odd Outcomes at the San Francisco Summit

The meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and President Joe Biden in San Francisco last week left observers wondering whose side California was on, since China’s President Xi received a standing ovation after a dinner with U.S. business leaders, so clearly U.S. business remains eager to trade with China. At the dinner, President Xi said, “China is pursuing high-quality development, and the United States is revitalizing its economy,” adding that, “There is plenty of room for our cooperation.”

Obviously, President Biden needs some trade with China for his proposed green transition due to China’s dominance in producing solar panels, batteries and EVs. The Wall Street Journal reported last week that China has a massive glut of solar panels, polysilicon, batteries and EVs, which is raising global trade tensions. On the other hand, since the U.S. is China’s biggest trading partner, China needs the U.S. too.

I suspect that President Xi pushed President Biden to remove some tariffs, but the Biden Administration has been even tougher on China than the Trump Administration, so there was no progress on reducing tariffs last week. The primary achievement from the meeting between Chinese President Xi and President Biden is that tense communication channels have been reopened, including for their respective militaries.

Interestingly, at a news conference a few hours after the Asia-Pacific Summit, President Biden described Chinese President Xi as a “dictator,” which caused Secretary of State Anthony Blinken to visibly wince. Biden specifically went on to elaborate, saying, “Look, he’s a dictator in the sense that he’s a guy who runs a Communist country that’s based on a form of government that’s totally different than ours.”

The good news is that many homeless encampments in San Francisco were removed. The ground was pressure washed and curbs were painted before the Asia-Pacific Summit so that many embarrassing sights were removed. For security reasons, large fences were erected for President Xi, which also happened in my neighborhood when President Xi and his entourage were staying up the street at a hotel in Manalapan, Florida, when he was meeting President Trump in April 2017, at Mar-a-Lago. Since under 400 people live in Manalapan, we thought the fencing in front of the hotel and down the road was a bit of overkill.

Speaking of China, today marks the earnings call for Nvidia, the powerhouse of the AI revolution. To comply with the Biden Administration’s new chip restrictions on China, Nvidia will announce new AI and graphic chips for China. The previous chips Nvidia designed for China were recently banned by the Biden Administration’s new export restrictions. The announcement of the new chips should help boost the entire chip sector, since it will remove much of the uncertainty surrounding new Chinese export rules.

The big weekend news was Argentina’s Sunday Presidential election, where Javier Milei, a libertarian economist, scored a massive victory that is expected to have profound consequences, since he wants to peg the Argentina peso to the U.S. dollar. Milei, who sports Elvis-style hair and sideburns, is also a musician and often performs in front of crowds.  He has made a successful transition from a fiery television pundit to a political leader who has promised to take a “chainsaw” to government spending.

With 133% interest rates, long gas lines, and a perpetually depreciating currency, Argentina must do something, since capital flight to Uruguay and other financial havens is all too common. A Milei victory is also likely boost U.S. influence in Latin America, where China has become increasingly dominant.

Navellier & Associates owns Nvidia Corp (NVDA), and e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. (ELF), in managed accounts. We do not own Target Corporation (TGT). Louis Navellier and his family own Nvidia Corp (NVDA), and e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. (ELF), via a Navellier managed account, and Nvidia Corp (NVDA), in a personal account. He does not own Target Corporation personally.

All content above represents the opinion of Louis Navellier of Navellier & Associates, Inc.

Please see important disclosures below.

About The Author

Louis Navellier

Louis Navellier is Founder, Chairman of the Board, Chief Investment Officer and Chief Compliance Officer of Navellier & Associates, Inc., located in Reno, Nevada. With decades of experience translating what had been purely academic techniques into real market applications, he believes that disciplined, quantitative analysis can select stocks that will significantly outperform the overall market. All content in this “A Look Ahead” section of Market Mail represents the opinion of Louis Navellier of Navellier & Associates, Inc.

Important Disclosures:

Although information in these reports has been obtained from and is based upon sources that Navellier believes to be reliable, Navellier does not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute Navellier’s judgment as of the date the report was created and are subject to change without notice. These reports are for informational purposes only and are not a solicitation for the purchase or sale of a security. Any decision to purchase securities mentioned in these reports must take into account existing public information on such securities or any registered prospectus.To the extent permitted by law, neither Navellier & Associates, Inc., nor any of its affiliates, agents, or service providers assumes any liability or responsibility nor owes any duty of care for any consequences of any person acting or refraining to act in reliance on the information contained in this communication or for any decision based on it.

Past performance is no indication of future results. Investment in securities involves significant risk and has the potential for partial or complete loss of funds invested. It should not be assumed that any securities recommendations made by Navellier. in the future will be profitable or equal the performance of securities made in this report. Dividend payments are not guaranteed. The amount of a dividend payment, if any, can vary over time and issuers may reduce dividends paid on securities in the event of a recession or adverse event affecting a specific industry or issuer.

None of the stock information, data, and company information presented herein constitutes a recommendation by Navellier or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Any specific securities identified and described do not represent all of the securities purchased, sold, or recommended for advisory clients. The holdings identified do not represent all of the securities purchased, sold, or recommended for advisory clients and the reader should not assume that investments in the securities identified and discussed were or will be profitable.

Information presented is general information that does not take into account your individual circumstances, financial situation, or needs, nor does it present a personalized recommendation to you. Individual stocks presented may not be suitable for every investor. Investment in securities involves significant risk and has the potential for partial or complete loss of funds invested. Investment in fixed income securities has the potential for the investment return and principal value of an investment to fluctuate so that an investor’s holdings, when redeemed, may be worth less than their original cost.

One cannot invest directly in an index. Index is unmanaged and index performance does not reflect deduction of fees, expenses, or taxes. Presentation of Index data does not reflect a belief by Navellier that any stock index constitutes an investment alternative to any Navellier equity strategy or is necessarily comparable to such strategies. Among the most important differences between the Indices and Navellier strategies are that the Navellier equity strategies may (1) incur material management fees, (2) concentrate its investments in relatively few stocks, industries, or sectors, (3) have significantly greater trading activity and related costs, and (4) be significantly more or less volatile than the Indices.

ETF Risk: We may invest in exchange traded funds (“ETFs”) and some of our investment strategies are generally fully invested in ETFs. Like traditional mutual funds, ETFs charge asset-based fees, but they generally do not charge initial sales charges or redemption fees and investors typically pay only customary brokerage fees to buy and sell ETF shares. The fees and costs charged by ETFs held in client accounts will not be deducted from the compensation the client pays Navellier. ETF prices can fluctuate up or down, and a client account could lose money investing in an ETF if the prices of the securities owned by the ETF go down. ETFs are subject to additional risks:

  • ETF shares may trade above or below their net asset value;
  • An active trading market for an ETF’s shares may not develop or be maintained;
  • The value of an ETF may be more volatile than the underlying portfolio of securities the ETF is designed to track;
  • The cost of owning shares of the ETF may exceed those a client would incur by directly investing in the underlying securities; and
  • Trading of an ETF’s shares may be halted if the listing exchange’s officials deem it appropriate, the shares are delisted from the exchange, or the activation of market-wide “circuit breakers” (which are tied to large decreases in stock prices) halts stock trading generally.

Grader Disclosures: Investment in equity strategies involves substantial risk and has the potential for partial or complete loss of funds invested. The sample portfolio and any accompanying charts are for informational purposes only and are not to be construed as a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument and should not be relied upon as the sole factor in an investment making decision. As a matter of normal and important disclosures to you, as a potential investor, please consider the following: The performance presented is not based on any actual securities trading, portfolio, or accounts, and the reported performance of the A, B, C, D, and F portfolios (collectively the “model portfolios”) should be considered mere “paper” or pro forma performance results based on Navellier’s research.

Investors evaluating any of Navellier & Associates, Inc.’s, (or its affiliates’) Investment Products must not use any information presented here, including the performance figures of the model portfolios, in their evaluation of any Navellier Investment Products. Navellier Investment Products include the firm’s mutual funds and managed accounts. The model portfolios, charts, and other information presented do not represent actual funded trades and are not actual funded portfolios. There are material differences between Navellier Investment Products’ portfolios and the model portfolios, research, and performance figures presented here. The model portfolios and the research results (1) may contain stocks or ETFs that are illiquid and difficult to trade; (2) may contain stock or ETF holdings materially different from actual funded Navellier Investment Product portfolios; (3) include the reinvestment of all dividends and other earnings, estimated trading costs, commissions, or management fees; and, (4) may not reflect prices obtained in an actual funded Navellier Investment Product portfolio. For these and other reasons, the reported performances of model portfolios do not reflect the performance results of Navellier’s actually funded and traded Investment Products. In most cases, Navellier’s Investment Products have materially lower performance results than the performances of the model portfolios presented.

This report contains statements that are, or may be considered to be, forward-looking statements. All statements that are not historical facts, including statements about our beliefs or expectations, are “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of The U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements may be identified by such forward-looking terminology as “expect,” “estimate,” “plan,” “intend,” “believe,” “anticipate,” “may,” “will,” “should,” “could,” “continue,” “project,” or similar statements or variations of such terms. Our forward-looking statements are based on a series of expectations, assumptions, and projections, are not guarantees of future results or performance, and involve substantial risks and uncertainty as described in Form ADV Part 2A of our filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), which is available at or by requesting a copy by emailing All of our forward-looking statements are as of the date of this report only. We can give no assurance that such expectations or forward-looking statements will prove to be correct. Actual results may differ materially. You are urged to carefully consider all such factors.

FEDERAL TAX ADVICE DISCLAIMER: As required by U.S. Treasury Regulations, you are informed that, to the extent this presentation includes any federal tax advice, the presentation is not written by Navellier to be used, and cannot be used, for the purpose of avoiding federal tax penalties. Navellier does not advise on any income tax requirements or issues. Use of any information presented by Navellier is for general information only and does not represent tax advice either express or implied. You are encouraged to seek professional tax advice for income tax questions and assistance.

IMPORTANT NEWSLETTER DISCLOSURE:The hypothetical performance results for investment newsletters that are authored or edited by Louis Navellier, including Louis Navellier’s Growth Investor, Louis Navellier’s Breakthrough Stocks, Louis Navellier’s Accelerated Profits, and Louis Navellier’s Platinum Club, are not based on any actual securities trading, portfolio, or accounts, and the newsletters’ reported hypothetical performances should be considered mere “paper” or proforma hypothetical performance results and are not actual performance of real world trades.  Navellier & Associates, Inc. does not have any relation to or affiliation with the owner of these newsletters. There are material differences between Navellier Investment Products’ portfolios and the InvestorPlace Media, LLC newsletter portfolios authored by Louis Navellier. The InvestorPlace Media, LLC newsletters contain hypothetical performance that do not include transaction costs, advisory fees, or other fees a client might incur if actual investments and trades were being made by an investor. As a result, newsletter performance should not be used to evaluate Navellier Investment services which are separate and different from the newsletters. The owner of the newsletters is InvestorPlace Media, LLC and any questions concerning the newsletters, including any newsletter advertising or hypothetical Newsletter performance claims, (which are calculated solely by Investor Place Media and not Navellier) should be referred to InvestorPlace Media, LLC at (800) 718-8289.

Please note that Navellier & Associates and the Navellier Private Client Group are managed completely independent of the newsletters owned and published by InvestorPlace Media, LLC and written and edited by Louis Navellier, and investment performance of the newsletters should in no way be considered indicative of potential future investment performance for any Navellier & Associates separately managed account portfolio. Potential investors should consult with their financial advisor before investing in any Navellier Investment Product.

Navellier claims compliance with Global Investment Performance Standards (GIPS). To receive a complete list and descriptions of Navellier’s composites and/or a presentation that adheres to the GIPS standards, please contact Navellier or click here. It should not be assumed that any securities recommendations made by Navellier & Associates, Inc. in the future will be profitable or equal the performance of securities made in this report.

FactSet Disclosure: Navellier does not independently calculate the statistical information included in the attached report. The calculation and the information are provided by FactSet, a company not related to Navellier. Although information contained in the report has been obtained from FactSet and is based on sources Navellier believes to be reliable, Navellier does not guarantee its accuracy, and it may be incomplete or condensed. The report and the related FactSet sourced information are provided on an “as is” basis. The user assumes the entire risk of any use made of this information. Investors should consider the report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. The report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of a security. FactSet sourced information is the exclusive property of FactSet. Without prior written permission of FactSet, this information may not be reproduced, disseminated or used to create any financial products. All indices are unmanaged and performance of the indices include reinvestment of dividends and interest income, unless otherwise noted, are not illustrative of any particular investment and an investment cannot be made in any index. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.