by Louis Navellier

January 30, 2024

The recent Arctic Blast was great for natural gas demand, but last Friday it shocked me that the Biden Administration halted approval for new licenses to export liquified natural gas (LNG) due to concerns about climate change and national security. Specifically, President Biden said, “We will take a hard look at the impacts of LNG exports on energy costs, America’s energy security, and our environment. This pause on new LNG approvals sees the climate crisis for what it is: the existential threat of our time.”

Ironically, environmental advocates urgently want developing nations to stop using coal and are urging Europe to power its economy without using Russian natural gas. So far, so good: This opens up huge markets for U.S. LNG. But these same environmentalists refuse to build the infrastructure required to ship LNG. That ensures our natural gas will be wasted (burned-off) for generations to come. I can only say that “it’s hard to fix stupid.” Stopping the expansion of LNG exports will just result in wasting our natural gas. In my opinion, some zealots in the Biden Administration are so stupid they need to be put out to pasture.

Prohibiting LNG exports will just result in more coal burning, which is booming globally, since coal is cheap and popular in China, Eastern Europe, India, Indonesia and many other emerging economies. There is a glut of natural gas in the U.S. since much of it is a byproduct of crude oil production. Since we have more natural gas than we can use in the U.S., it is just going to be wasted (flared) if we do not export it.

Mike Sommers, President of the American Petroleum Institute (API), the oil-and-gas industry’s biggest lobby, denounced the Biden Administration decision, saying that it benefits Russia and is a broken promise to our allies, adding, “It’s time for the administration to stop playing politics with global energy security.” Additionally, Neil Chatterjee, a former Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) chairman, appointed by President Trump, said that LNG projects support jobs, not only in Republican states like Texas and Louisiana, where most terminals are, but also in swing states such as Ohio and Pennsylvania, which produce a significant proportion of U.S. natural gas. In other words, President Biden just lost Ohio and Pennsylvania, which are two key swing states in the upcoming Presidential election.

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that U.S. crude oil inventories have declined in recent weeks and are now at 430 million barrels, or 4% below a year ago. The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported last week that crude oil inventories declined by 6.7 million barrels in the latest week. However, API also reported that gasoline inventories surged by 7.2 million barrels in the latest week and many Americans stayed off the roads during the recent Arctic Blast, so the prices at the pump are expected to remain low until demand picks up in the spring. So far, crude oil prices have risen more than 10% since January 8, due to low inventories, the disruption to shipping in the Red Sea and evidence that crude oil demand could rise from any Chinese economic stimulus as well as U.S. economic growth.

The expansion of the war in the Middle East has also helped boost crude oil prices, with Iranian proxies effectively closing shipping in the Red Sea. Furthermore, U.S. troops are now effectively “pinatas,” being hit with relentless attacks. Several troops recently suffered “traumatic brain injuries” from missile attacks at the Ain al-Asad air base in Iraq. U.S. and British naval attacks on Houthi rebels in Yemen persist and eight new targets were hit last Monday in a major assault. Additionally, the U.S. attacked Iran proxies in Iraq after the Ain al-Asad air base attack. The latest escalation was an oil tanker, the Marlin Luanda, hit Friday by a Houthi missile in the Gulf of Aden. The fire wasn’t extinguished until Saturday. Ironically, the Marlin Luanda was carrying Russian naphtha, a product used to make plastics and gasoline.

Due to chaos in the Middle East and disrupted shipping lanes, crude oil shipments and production could be disrupted in upcoming months. Do not be surprised if crude oil prices hit $80 during the next flareup in the Middle East. After Ukraine bombed Russia’s natural gas pipeline and the Trans-Siberian Railway, there is rising concern that Russia’s crude oil pipeline could be bombed, which could also send crude oil prices soaring. Ukraine’s latest major attack was a drone attack on a chemical transport facility in the Ust-Luga port last week, about 100 miles southwest of St. Petersburg. This port is a crucial location for Russia’s energy infrastructure. It is operated by Novatek, Russia’s second-largest natural gas producer.

The Chinese are taking over the electric vehicle (EV) market, as the price wars have expanded to Europe and Tesla has temporarily closed its Berlin plant due to the Rea Sea supply disruptions. Frankly, Tesla needs to make a cheaper city-oriented EV for China, and Europe needs to get its “mojo” back and capture market share from BYD. Tesla has a new, lower-cost EV in the works with a code name of “Redwood” that would use “revolutionary manufacturing technology.” It is supposed to be introduced in mid-2025.

The other interesting EV-related news is that Apple will be introducing its EV in 2028 with level 2 driver assistance. Clearly, Apple’s attempts at autonomous driving via “project Titan” has fallen short of its ambitious expectations, but when Apple introduces any product, it strives to be reliable and problem free, so I suspect its EV will be a hit and will capture some market share from Tesla and other EV carmakers.

The recent Arctic Blast has revealed several problems with EVs: Bitter cold can cut the range of EVs, and cold weather also closed down many charging stations. The EV glut continues to grow at car dealerships. Ford announced that it will continue to slash its production of the F-150 Lightening due to weak demand. Effective April 1, F-150 Lightening production will be reduced to just one shift, so 1,400 employees from the second shift will be reassigned to other shifts at other assembly plants. Meanwhile, Ford is increasing its Bronco and Ranger pickup production, as the demand for internal combustion vehicles remains strong.

The Wall Street Journal last week had an article about how BYD, which passed Tesla as the largest EV manufacturer, is moving upscale to take more market share away from Tesla. Specifically, BYD introduced an upscale brand of EVs, Yangwang, to make more luxurious and exciting EVs, including one model that looks like a Lamborghini! The truth of the matter is that EVs can be a bit boring, so great style and design are important to boost sales. Personally, I find Tesla’s Cyber-truck a bit hilarious. Elon Musk said that the Cyber-truck is designed for the Zombie Apocalypse! After the Cyber-truck launch, there have been a lot of comparisons with other electric pickups, and the Ford F-150 Lightening has fared well. However, good media reviews are not enough to boost sales. Interestingly, Ford and Toyota hybrids are outselling their EVs, so it appears that EV range anxiety persists, especially in the truck world.

I am still holding some energy and refining stocks that are poised to surge as seasonal crude oil demand picks up in the Spring. Since seven of eight people (87%) live in the Northern Hemisphere – seven billion vs. one billion in the Southern Hemisphere – crude oil demand naturally rises as the weather improves.

2024 Should Be a Positive Market Year

At the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, many European leaders exhibited their Trump Derangement Syndrome (TDS), fearing a second Trump term seemingly more than a series of world wars now going on, or global warming fears, or global recessions. With Florida governor Ron DeSantis dropping out of the race and endorsing Donald Trump just before the New Hampshire primary, it now appears that Trump will lock up the GOP nomination faster than any non-incumbent has ever done.

Still, we should be prepared for some twists and turns in the Presidential race throughout this year. The bottom line is that the most positive candidate is typically elected, and that positive energy helps to boost both consumer and investor confidence. Furthermore, a series of Fed key interest rate cuts are expected to send the stock market higher right up to election-day in November, so we have a lot to look forward to.

Another positive for investors is that earnings comparisons remain favorable for the next three quarters, so the stock market is expected to rally right up to election day. The typical historical pattern would be a slow first quarter followed by a strong finish. The big question is when will the Fed’s rate cuts will start.

Now that the New Hampshire primary is over, the Presidential election is looking like a Joe Biden and Donald Trump rematch, with Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. running as an independent, taking votes away from both Biden and Trump. Post Covid-19, the world has been shifting right. The latest example is in New Zealand, where the Conservative party won a majority of seats. New Zealand was one of the most locked down countries during Covid-19 and voters clearly do not want those authoritarian lock-downs to reoccur. In America, this worldwide rightward shift would seem to bode poorly for Joe Biden being re-elected.

Unless President Biden can turn around his unpopular energy policies and his perceived aging challenges, a new President will likely be elected in November. In addition, the Biden Administration’s on-shoring efforts have clearly failed, since the big semiconductor plant in Arizona is not scheduled to open until after the election, in 2025, plus the Big 3 canceled most of their battery plants with their Chinese and South Korean partners. In addition, the U.S. has been in a manufacturing recession for 14 months now.

U.S. GDP has kept rising because services (which account for about 70% of GDP) have kept expanding. In the wake of the announcement that December retail sales rose 0.6%, the strongest rise in three months. Treasury bond yields meandered higher, so some economists do not expect Fed rate cuts to begin until June. Obviously, the faster the Fed cuts key interest rates, the more the stock market is expected to rally this year. The Fed’s favorite inflation indicator, the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) index was updated on Friday, rising 0.2% in December and 2.6% in the past 12 months. The core PCE, excluding food and energy, also rose 0.2%, but the best news is that the core PCE has been within the Fed’s 2% inflation target over the last seven months, so that should convince them to cut rates sooner rather than later.

According to the Fed’s own “dot plot,” Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members predicted six to seven 0.25% rate cuts in 2024 and 2025. Frankly, I think the majority of those cuts should occur in 2024, since home sales are running at the slowest pace since 1995, so mortgage rates need some relief.

Last Thursday, the Commerce Department announced that its preliminary estimate for fourth-quarter GDP was an annual rate of 3.3%, which is substantially higher than the economists’ consensus estimate of 2%. Consumer spending rose at an impressive 2.8% pace in the fourth quarter, while business investment and the housing sector also contributed to better-than-expected fourth-quarter GDP growth.

The other news coming from the Commerce Department last Thursday was that durable goods orders remained unchanged after surging 5.5% in November. This was a disappointment, since economists were expecting a 1.1% increase. Transportation orders fell 0.9% after surging 15.3% in November. A 2.9% decline in defense orders was also a drag. Core non-defense capital goods rose 0.3% in December after an upwardly revised 1% in November. Overall, the durable goods report will likely improve in the upcoming months when Boeing’s production glitches with the 737 Max jets are finally resolved.

Specifically, I think the U.S. market will remain an oasis compared to our major markets, like China or Europe. More than $6 trillion of market value has been wiped out in Chinese and Hong Kong stock markets since their peak in 2021. Another weak market has been the carbon credit trading market in Europe, which is off to its worst start for any year since it was opened in 2016. The price of carbon credits has fallen 22% this year and almost 40% from its highs in February 2023, so until economic growth perks up and/or the wind in Europe lessens, the carbon credit market will remain in the doldrums.

The European Central Bank (ECB) left its key interest rate unchanged at 4% on Thursday. ECB President Christine Lagarde at her press conference signaled that the ECB will cut its key rate “likely” by summer. Economic growth in the 20-nation European Union (EU) remains weak, so many economists believe that the ECB should cut its key interest rate sooner rather than later. Lagarde said, “The euro area economy is likely to have stagnated in the final quarter of 2023.” Despite that comment, Lagarde added, “We need to be further along in the disinflation process before we can be sufficiently confident that inflation will actually hit the target in a timely manner.” Frankly, the ECB should start cutting rates much sooner.

In closing, we have a lot to look forward to this year. Surging consumer confidence and retail sales both bode well for improving economic growth. My favorite economist, Ed Yardeni, titled his briefing last Monday, “Let’s Party Like It’s 1999!” Then, last Friday, Yardeni was on a Bloomberg podcast citing parallels between the 1920s and 2020s, with similarities between the Spanish flu pandemic that preceded the 1920s and the aftermath of the Covid-19 crisis, saying, “We’re in the early stages of a productivity growth boom.” Yardeni said “The course of progress we’re making puts us in a roaring 2020s scenario.”

I agree with Yardeni, especially since there is $8.8 trillion in cash on the sidelines to fuel a big rally. This year could be just as spectacular as 1999. As interest rates decline, much of this cash could return to the stock market, so there is plenty of fuel to propel stocks higher. Naturally, stocks must keep reporting improving quarterly results as well as positive guidance to get investors excited. I remain especially excited about our growth stocks, like Super Micro Computer, since they are the new market leaders!

Navellier & Associates owns Apple Computer (AAPL), Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI), and Ford Motor Co. (F) in managed accounts. A few clients own Tesla (TSLA), and Boeing Company (BA), per client request in managed accounts. We do not own BYD Company (BYDDY).  Louis Navellier and his family own Apple Computer (AAPL), Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI), via a Navellier managed account, and Apple Computer (AAPL) in a personal account. He does not own Ford Motor Co. (F), Tesla (TSLA), BYD Company (BYDDY) and Boeing Company (BA), personally.

All content above represents the opinion of Louis Navellier of Navellier & Associates, Inc.

Please see important disclosures below.

Also In This Issue

Global Mail by Ivan Martchev
The January Barometer Holds 2024 Promise

Sector Spotlight by Jason Bodner
Market Secrets From “Another Planet”

View Full Archive
Read Past Issues Here

About The Author

Louis Navellier

Louis Navellier is Founder, Chairman of the Board, Chief Investment Officer and Chief Compliance Officer of Navellier & Associates, Inc., located in Reno, Nevada. With decades of experience translating what had been purely academic techniques into real market applications, he believes that disciplined, quantitative analysis can select stocks that will significantly outperform the overall market. All content in this “A Look Ahead” section of Market Mail represents the opinion of Louis Navellier of Navellier & Associates, Inc.

Important Disclosures:

Although information in these reports has been obtained from and is based upon sources that Navellier believes to be reliable, Navellier does not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute Navellier’s judgment as of the date the report was created and are subject to change without notice. These reports are for informational purposes only and are not a solicitation for the purchase or sale of a security. Any decision to purchase securities mentioned in these reports must take into account existing public information on such securities or any registered prospectus.To the extent permitted by law, neither Navellier & Associates, Inc., nor any of its affiliates, agents, or service providers assumes any liability or responsibility nor owes any duty of care for any consequences of any person acting or refraining to act in reliance on the information contained in this communication or for any decision based on it.

Past performance is no indication of future results. Investment in securities involves significant risk and has the potential for partial or complete loss of funds invested. It should not be assumed that any securities recommendations made by Navellier. in the future will be profitable or equal the performance of securities made in this report. Dividend payments are not guaranteed. The amount of a dividend payment, if any, can vary over time and issuers may reduce dividends paid on securities in the event of a recession or adverse event affecting a specific industry or issuer.

None of the stock information, data, and company information presented herein constitutes a recommendation by Navellier or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Any specific securities identified and described do not represent all of the securities purchased, sold, or recommended for advisory clients. The holdings identified do not represent all of the securities purchased, sold, or recommended for advisory clients and the reader should not assume that investments in the securities identified and discussed were or will be profitable.

Information presented is general information that does not take into account your individual circumstances, financial situation, or needs, nor does it present a personalized recommendation to you. Individual stocks presented may not be suitable for every investor. Investment in securities involves significant risk and has the potential for partial or complete loss of funds invested. Investment in fixed income securities has the potential for the investment return and principal value of an investment to fluctuate so that an investor’s holdings, when redeemed, may be worth less than their original cost.

One cannot invest directly in an index. Index is unmanaged and index performance does not reflect deduction of fees, expenses, or taxes. Presentation of Index data does not reflect a belief by Navellier that any stock index constitutes an investment alternative to any Navellier equity strategy or is necessarily comparable to such strategies. Among the most important differences between the Indices and Navellier strategies are that the Navellier equity strategies may (1) incur material management fees, (2) concentrate its investments in relatively few stocks, industries, or sectors, (3) have significantly greater trading activity and related costs, and (4) be significantly more or less volatile than the Indices.

ETF Risk: We may invest in exchange traded funds (“ETFs”) and some of our investment strategies are generally fully invested in ETFs. Like traditional mutual funds, ETFs charge asset-based fees, but they generally do not charge initial sales charges or redemption fees and investors typically pay only customary brokerage fees to buy and sell ETF shares. The fees and costs charged by ETFs held in client accounts will not be deducted from the compensation the client pays Navellier. ETF prices can fluctuate up or down, and a client account could lose money investing in an ETF if the prices of the securities owned by the ETF go down. ETFs are subject to additional risks:

  • ETF shares may trade above or below their net asset value;
  • An active trading market for an ETF’s shares may not develop or be maintained;
  • The value of an ETF may be more volatile than the underlying portfolio of securities the ETF is designed to track;
  • The cost of owning shares of the ETF may exceed those a client would incur by directly investing in the underlying securities; and
  • Trading of an ETF’s shares may be halted if the listing exchange’s officials deem it appropriate, the shares are delisted from the exchange, or the activation of market-wide “circuit breakers” (which are tied to large decreases in stock prices) halts stock trading generally.

Grader Disclosures: Investment in equity strategies involves substantial risk and has the potential for partial or complete loss of funds invested. The sample portfolio and any accompanying charts are for informational purposes only and are not to be construed as a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument and should not be relied upon as the sole factor in an investment making decision. As a matter of normal and important disclosures to you, as a potential investor, please consider the following: The performance presented is not based on any actual securities trading, portfolio, or accounts, and the reported performance of the A, B, C, D, and F portfolios (collectively the “model portfolios”) should be considered mere “paper” or pro forma performance results based on Navellier’s research.

Investors evaluating any of Navellier & Associates, Inc.’s, (or its affiliates’) Investment Products must not use any information presented here, including the performance figures of the model portfolios, in their evaluation of any Navellier Investment Products. Navellier Investment Products include the firm’s mutual funds and managed accounts. The model portfolios, charts, and other information presented do not represent actual funded trades and are not actual funded portfolios. There are material differences between Navellier Investment Products’ portfolios and the model portfolios, research, and performance figures presented here. The model portfolios and the research results (1) may contain stocks or ETFs that are illiquid and difficult to trade; (2) may contain stock or ETF holdings materially different from actual funded Navellier Investment Product portfolios; (3) include the reinvestment of all dividends and other earnings, estimated trading costs, commissions, or management fees; and, (4) may not reflect prices obtained in an actual funded Navellier Investment Product portfolio. For these and other reasons, the reported performances of model portfolios do not reflect the performance results of Navellier’s actually funded and traded Investment Products. In most cases, Navellier’s Investment Products have materially lower performance results than the performances of the model portfolios presented.

This report contains statements that are, or may be considered to be, forward-looking statements. All statements that are not historical facts, including statements about our beliefs or expectations, are “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of The U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements may be identified by such forward-looking terminology as “expect,” “estimate,” “plan,” “intend,” “believe,” “anticipate,” “may,” “will,” “should,” “could,” “continue,” “project,” or similar statements or variations of such terms. Our forward-looking statements are based on a series of expectations, assumptions, and projections, are not guarantees of future results or performance, and involve substantial risks and uncertainty as described in Form ADV Part 2A of our filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), which is available at or by requesting a copy by emailing All of our forward-looking statements are as of the date of this report only. We can give no assurance that such expectations or forward-looking statements will prove to be correct. Actual results may differ materially. You are urged to carefully consider all such factors.

FEDERAL TAX ADVICE DISCLAIMER: As required by U.S. Treasury Regulations, you are informed that, to the extent this presentation includes any federal tax advice, the presentation is not written by Navellier to be used, and cannot be used, for the purpose of avoiding federal tax penalties. Navellier does not advise on any income tax requirements or issues. Use of any information presented by Navellier is for general information only and does not represent tax advice either express or implied. You are encouraged to seek professional tax advice for income tax questions and assistance.

IMPORTANT NEWSLETTER DISCLOSURE:The hypothetical performance results for investment newsletters that are authored or edited by Louis Navellier, including Louis Navellier’s Growth Investor, Louis Navellier’s Breakthrough Stocks, Louis Navellier’s Accelerated Profits, and Louis Navellier’s Platinum Club, are not based on any actual securities trading, portfolio, or accounts, and the newsletters’ reported hypothetical performances should be considered mere “paper” or proforma hypothetical performance results and are not actual performance of real world trades.  Navellier & Associates, Inc. does not have any relation to or affiliation with the owner of these newsletters. There are material differences between Navellier Investment Products’ portfolios and the InvestorPlace Media, LLC newsletter portfolios authored by Louis Navellier. The InvestorPlace Media, LLC newsletters contain hypothetical performance that do not include transaction costs, advisory fees, or other fees a client might incur if actual investments and trades were being made by an investor. As a result, newsletter performance should not be used to evaluate Navellier Investment services which are separate and different from the newsletters. The owner of the newsletters is InvestorPlace Media, LLC and any questions concerning the newsletters, including any newsletter advertising or hypothetical Newsletter performance claims, (which are calculated solely by Investor Place Media and not Navellier) should be referred to InvestorPlace Media, LLC at (800) 718-8289.

Please note that Navellier & Associates and the Navellier Private Client Group are managed completely independent of the newsletters owned and published by InvestorPlace Media, LLC and written and edited by Louis Navellier, and investment performance of the newsletters should in no way be considered indicative of potential future investment performance for any Navellier & Associates separately managed account portfolio. Potential investors should consult with their financial advisor before investing in any Navellier Investment Product.

Navellier claims compliance with Global Investment Performance Standards (GIPS). To receive a complete list and descriptions of Navellier’s composites and/or a presentation that adheres to the GIPS standards, please contact Navellier or click here. It should not be assumed that any securities recommendations made by Navellier & Associates, Inc. in the future will be profitable or equal the performance of securities made in this report.

FactSet Disclosure: Navellier does not independently calculate the statistical information included in the attached report. The calculation and the information are provided by FactSet, a company not related to Navellier. Although information contained in the report has been obtained from FactSet and is based on sources Navellier believes to be reliable, Navellier does not guarantee its accuracy, and it may be incomplete or condensed. The report and the related FactSet sourced information are provided on an “as is” basis. The user assumes the entire risk of any use made of this information. Investors should consider the report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. The report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of a security. FactSet sourced information is the exclusive property of FactSet. Without prior written permission of FactSet, this information may not be reproduced, disseminated or used to create any financial products. All indices are unmanaged and performance of the indices include reinvestment of dividends and interest income, unless otherwise noted, are not illustrative of any particular investment and an investment cannot be made in any index. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.