INVESTMENT COMMENTARY & Outlook January 2025 We are proud with our performance in 2024 and are expecting a strong start to 2025. One reason is that the S&P 500 forecasted earnings are reaccelerating and a lot of stimuli from Trump 2.0 is anticipated. The manufacturing sector, which has contracted for 25 of the past 26 months, according to the Institute of Supply Management (ISM), showed some signs of life in December when the ISM new orders [...]

INVESTMENT COMMENTARY & Outlook October 2024 There have been a few October surprises. First, the tension in the Middle East exploded after Iran launched approximately 200 missiles into Israel that were successfully intercepted, but now the world is waiting to see how Israel will respond. Second, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis said that the damages from Hurricane Milton avoided a “worst case scenario,” despite the fact that Siesta Key, Sarasota and the Tampa baseball stadium sustained severe [...]

INVESTMENT COMMENTARY & Outlook July 2024 The Wall Street hates uncertainty and fortunately, all of a sudden, everything is now much more certain. The Fed will be following other major central banks and cutting key interest rates no later than September 18th. Economic incentives are expected to be passed in Europe. The U.S. dollar has been amazingly strong, since the U.S. is expected to lead a worldwide economic recovery. A strong U.S. dollar can hinder multinational [...]

INVESTMENT COMMENTARY & Outlook April 2024 The S&P 500 had the best start to the year in the first quarter in the past 5 years. The average stock in the S&P 500 posted fourth-quarter sales and earnings that were 1.3% and 6.7%, respectively, better than the analyst community had anticipated. These impressive results were aided by easy year-over-year comparisons. However, the analyst community has been revising their consensus estimates higher in the wake of these impressive [...]

INVESTMENT COMMENTARY & Outlook January 2024 The good news is the stock market has responded positively to the fact that since October 19th, the 10-year Treasury bond yield peaked at 4.99% and has since fallen dramatically. Furthermore, at the December Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, the Fed revealed that the “dot plot” from all 17 FOMC members is signaling three rate cuts in 2024. Additionally, three to four rates cuts are anticipated in 2025 until [...]

INVESTMENT COMMENTARY & Outlook October 2023 The good news is that we survived September and the threat of a federal government shutdown. The bad news is that we started October with surging Treasury bond yields, so concerns over out-of-control federal spending persist. The federal debt ceiling was lifted with a 45-day funding plan, and when it has to be renewed in November, it should pass, since Congressional members like to go home for Thanksgiving. The public [...]