Global Mail Archive
7-4-23: The Yield Curve is as Inverted as It Gets
by Ivan Martchev July 4, 2023 The yield curve, as measured by the 2-year note and 10-year note (Treasury yields) have gotten more inverted of late, registering at -106 basis points (bps) [...]
6-27-23: The Fed Skip May Actually Be a Stop
by Ivan Martchev June 27, 2023 Last week, jobless claims came in at 264,000, the exact same number they were at the week before. One week further back they were at 262,000. [...]
6-21-23: Recession May Still Be Around the Corner
by Ivan Martchev June 21, 2023 Two weeks in a row, jobless claims have been elevated, affecting the four-week moving average. These indicators have not been as high since late 2021 and [...]
6-13-23: Watch Jobless Claims – and Beware Bitcoin
by Ivan Martchev June 13, 2023 For the first time in a while, there was a notable jump in the weekly jobless claims last week. Granted, during the pandemic and the mandatory [...]
6-6-23: Recession is Still Nowhere to be Seen
by Ivan Martchev June 6, 2023 The stock market, as represented by its most widely followed benchmark, the S&P 500, made a new high for 2023 last Friday. There are a lot [...]
5-31-23: “AI.com” Is the New Market Magic Formula
by Ivan Martchev May 31, 2023 In the dot.com bubble, any IPO with a “.com” in the name went up significantly more than companies that chose not to include that suffix. It [...]
5-23-23: Narrow Market Breadth Continues to Concern Investors
by Ivan Martchev May 23, 2023 The S&P 500 Index (SPX) made a new high for 2023 last week while its cousin – the S&P 500 Equal Weighted Index (SPXEW), in which [...]
1-31-23: The Surreal Correlation Between Junk Bonds and Stocks
by Ivan Martchev January 31, 2023 A junk bond “reads like a bond but trades like a stock,” a veteran bond trader told me a long time ago, and a total return [...]