Global Mail Archive
5-31-23: “AI.com” Is the New Market Magic Formula
by Ivan Martchev May 31, 2023 In the dot.com bubble, any IPO with a “.com” in the name went up significantly more than companies that chose not to include that suffix. It [...]
5-23-23: Narrow Market Breadth Continues to Concern Investors
by Ivan Martchev May 23, 2023 The S&P 500 Index (SPX) made a new high for 2023 last week while its cousin – the S&P 500 Equal Weighted Index (SPXEW), in which [...]
5-16-23: Real-Time Inflation Indicators are Quite Weak
by Ivan Martchev May 16, 2023 Last week, April’s year-over-year export and import prices showed unusually large declines. Export prices declined by 5.9%, on top of another large 4.8% decline in March. [...]
5-9-23: If Bank Stocks Can Rally, the Market Can Rally Some More
by Ivan Martchev May 9, 2023 The last completely unnecessary rake hike from the Federal Reserve is behind us, and we are left to wonder if Jerome Powell overdid it yet again, [...]
5-2-23: Market Advances on Poor Breadth
by Ivan Martchev May 2, 2023 The S&P 500 is up 8.6% so far this year, but 20 predominantly tech stocks comprise better than 90% of the index’s gains this year. The [...]
4-25-23: The Stock Market Has Reached a Fork in the Road
by Ivan Martchev April 25, 2023 The month of April has seen the S&P 500 move within less than a 100-point range during regular sessions, adding only a few points more if [...]
4-18-23: What’s Behind the New 2023 VIX Closing Low?
by Ivan Martchev April 18, 2023 In this first chart, the black line shows a new closing low for the S&P 500 Volatility index (VIX) vs. the S&P 500 itself. The VIX [...]
4-11-23: The Odds of a May Rate Hike Just Rose
by Ivan Martchev April 11, 2023 The employment report came out on Good Friday, when the stocks market was closed, but the futures market did trade for another 45 minutes after the [...]
4-4-23: Temporary Good News on the Banking Front
by Ivan Martchev April 4, 2023 The panic in the banking system seems to be abating as the Fed’s balance sheet went down about $28 billion, from $8.7338 trillion to $8.7059 trillion, [...]
3-28-23: “Jean-Claude” Powell and Janet “Trichet” Spook the Markets
by Ivan Martchev March 28, 2023 Hiking interest rates in the middle of a financial crisis has been done before, so what Fed Chair Jerome Powell did last Wednesday is not without [...]
3-21-23: QE Has Restarted
by Ivan Martchev March 21, 2023 With about $500 billion in outflows from the smaller banks, if one were to estimate the total value of all emergency facilities from the Fed and [...]
1-31-23: The Surreal Correlation Between Junk Bonds and Stocks
by Ivan Martchev January 31, 2023 A junk bond “reads like a bond but trades like a stock,” a veteran bond trader told me a long time ago, and a total return [...]