Global Mail Archive
12-19-23: Fed Chair Jerome Powell Goes Full Circle
by Ivan Martchev December 19, 2023 It is hard to expect any meaningful market pullback when the Fed Chairman pretty much says that there will likely be several rate cuts coming in [...]
12-12-23: There Could be A Simple Explanation for the Dax Moonshot Move
By Ivan Martchev December 12, 2023 The German stock market has gone parabolic in an exceptionally strong move, after meandering over the summer months with sub-par economic releases due to the admission [...]
12-5-23: A “Reluctant Rotation” Has Begun
by Ivan Martchev December 5, 2023 Instead of seeing a normal correction, which happens more often than not when the market has been going straight up for four weeks, we have seen [...]
11-28-23: New Volatility Lows for 2023 Indicate a Coming Overdue Small Correction
by Ivan Martchev November 28, 2023 The VIX (market volatility index) closed on Friday at 12.46, one tick above its annual low for 2023. While I have seen the VIX fall under [...]
11-21-23: The Stock Market is Pushing Against Statistical Extremes
by Ivan Martchev November 21, 2023 If we look at the whole year, as of last Friday, the S&P 500 is in an extreme position, based on its standard deviations away from [...]
11-14-23: So far, the Stock Market Bottom for 2023 Still Holds
by Ivan Martchev November 14, 2023 We have entered the seasonally strongest part of the year – as November and December historically tend to be up months, when the stock market acts [...]
11-7-23: We’re Seeing a Massive Short Squeeze in Both Stocks and Bonds
by Ivan Martchev November 7, 2023 The surreal correlation between Treasury rates and stock index futures, that had been intensifying in September and October, played its role – in a positive manner [...]
10-31-23: Initial Signs of a Treasury Yield Top
by Ivan Martchev October 31, 2023 By themselves, Treasury yields spiking out of control can cause a recession, and October delivered both a 5% yield on 10-year Treasury bonds and 8% fixed-rate [...]
10-24-23: The 10-year Treasury Rate is at the Brink of 5%
by Ivan Martchev October 24, 2023 As the S&P 500 sits on its 200-day moving average – in the vicinity of which it closed on Friday – I went back to reread [...]
10-17-23: The Present Explosive Geopolitical Situation is Impossible to Predict
by Ivan Martchev October 17, 2023 Just as the stock market was trying to shake off spiking bond yields, Hamas decided to attack Israeli civilians and Israel understandably has retaliated. This situation [...]
10-10-23: We Retested the S&P 500 200-Day Moving Average Twice Last Week
by Ivan Martchev October 10, 2023 While you will not see the S&P 500 Index kissing its 200-day simple-moving average (SMA) on the daily chart, the overnight trading of S&P futures did [...]
10-3-23: The Selloff in Stocks is the Fed’s Fault
by Ivan Martchev October 3, 2023 There is enough doom and gloom out there, plus oversold conditions in the stock market, to launch an end-of-year rally, although the lack of strength in [...]