Global Mail Archive
2-19-25: Trump’s Strategy of “Reconnaissance Through Battle”
by Ivan Martchev February 19, 2025 There has been downside volatility in the U.S. (much of it associated with tariffs) and upside volatility in Europe, particularly the German stock market (much of [...]
2-11-25: Will We See Another “Groundhog” Week?
by Ivan Martchev February 11, 2025 It does not happen very often that one week of trading in the S&P-500 looks like a carbon copy of the previous week, and yet this [...]
2-4-25: The Cycle of Tariff Recriminations Has Started
by Ivan Martchev February 4, 2025 January was a good month for U.S. stocks, with the S&P 500 rising 2.7%, even after the index closed more than 1% off Friday’s intra-day highs, [...]
1-28-25: Watch Out for a Return of Seasonal Inflation
by Ivan Martchev January 28, 2025 After the latest rally, we may see the old saw (“as goes January so goes the year”) play out in 2025. What we have seen so [...]
1-22-25: We Have Been at This Crossroads Before
by Ivan Martchev January 22, 2025 We have seen this convergence of trends several times in the last two years: Bond yields start rising and stocks ignore them, up to a point, [...]
1-14-25: Treasuries are the Biggest Problem Facing Stocks Now
by Ivan Martchev January 14, 2025 Treasury yields have gone straight up since Scott Bessent was nominated for Treasury Secretary, rising 65 basis points since the lows on December 6th. It’s not [...]
1-7-25: More Dollar Strength Coming
by Ivan Martchev January 7, 2025 It is still early in January, and we will hear many repeat the old saying, “As goes January, so goes the year,” or the short-term version, [...]
12-31-24: 2024 Was Great, But What About 2025?
by Ivan Martchev December 31, 2024 It looks like we made the high on the S&P 500 a few ticks below 6,100 on December 6th, but then rising bond yields – which [...]
12-24-24: Jerome Powell was a Party Pooper – Once Again
by Ivan Martchev December 24, 2024 My sneaking suspicion – that the Treasury market needed to cooperate in order for the stock market to have a strong finish to the year – [...]
12-17-24: Bonds Need to Play Ball for Stocks to Keep Rising
by Ivan Martchev December 17, 2024 The rather sharp rise in Treasury yields last week pressured the broad market, resulting in a down week, even though the Nasdaq 100 index did manage [...]
12-10-24: The Stock Market Glass Looks Half Full
by Ivan Martchev December 10, 2024 If my math is correct, starting today (and including a half-day on Christmas Eve), we have just 15 trading days until the end of the year. [...]
12-3-24: The Biggest Move Last Week Was in Bonds
by Ivan Martchev December 3, 2024 The best way to describe the huge swing in Treasury yields last week was a sigh of relief. The decline in long-term Treasury rates was mostly [...]