Global Mail Archive
3-25-25: Some Bottoming Action in the Stock Market is Clearly Evident
by Ivan Martchev March 25, 2025 While last week finally delivered an up-week for the S&P 500, it was clearly messy, which is normal in a bottoming process. I do not believe [...]
3-18-25: The VIX Says Buy Stocks
by Ivan Martchev March 18, 2025 I think the recent decline in the stock market is primarily rotational in nature, and the tariff threats by the Trump administration are mostly just an [...]
3-11-25: U.S. Stocks Are Ripe for a Rebound
by Ivan Martchev March 11, 2025 I don’t believe that the recent three weeks of selling in the S&P 500, after an all-time high in February, is due to interest rates, economic [...]
3-4-25: The Bond Market Is Beginning to Worry (a Little) About the Economy
by Ivan Martchev March 4, 2025 The S&P 500 registered a second down week in a row after hitting an all-time high as recently as February 19th. Even with the all-time high [...]
2-25-25: The Friday Curse of the S&P 500
by Ivan Martchev February 25, 2025 Every Friday of the new Trump administration has been a down-day, if you look at the most important index, the S&P 500. The first three Fridays [...]
2-19-25: Trump’s Strategy of “Reconnaissance Through Battle”
by Ivan Martchev February 19, 2025 There has been downside volatility in the U.S. (much of it associated with tariffs) and upside volatility in Europe, particularly the German stock market (much of [...]
2-11-25: Will We See Another “Groundhog” Week?
by Ivan Martchev February 11, 2025 It does not happen very often that one week of trading in the S&P-500 looks like a carbon copy of the previous week, and yet this [...]
2-4-25: The Cycle of Tariff Recriminations Has Started
by Ivan Martchev February 4, 2025 January was a good month for U.S. stocks, with the S&P 500 rising 2.7%, even after the index closed more than 1% off Friday’s intra-day highs, [...]
1-28-25: Watch Out for a Return of Seasonal Inflation
by Ivan Martchev January 28, 2025 After the latest rally, we may see the old saw (“as goes January so goes the year”) play out in 2025. What we have seen so [...]
1-22-25: We Have Been at This Crossroads Before
by Ivan Martchev January 22, 2025 We have seen this convergence of trends several times in the last two years: Bond yields start rising and stocks ignore them, up to a point, [...]
1-14-25: Treasuries are the Biggest Problem Facing Stocks Now
by Ivan Martchev January 14, 2025 Treasury yields have gone straight up since Scott Bessent was nominated for Treasury Secretary, rising 65 basis points since the lows on December 6th. It’s not [...]
1-7-25: More Dollar Strength Coming
by Ivan Martchev January 7, 2025 It is still early in January, and we will hear many repeat the old saying, “As goes January, so goes the year,” or the short-term version, [...]