Global Mail Archive
11-19-24: Something Else is Worrying the Market
by Ivan Martchev November 19, 2024 I have to admit that I expected better retention of the post-election gains, which actually started the week before the election. If you bought at the [...]
11-12-24: What the Post-Election Collapse in Volatility Means
by Ivan Martchev November 12, 2024 A clear win by Donald Trump is a definite positive for the markets, as the feared “hung election” scenario was swiftly priced out of the market. [...]
11-5-24: The Big Election Week is Finally Here
by Ivan Martchev November 5, 2024 By the time most of you read this – Tuesday morning most likely – we still won't know who will be the next president, which will [...]
10-29-24: Have Stocks (Finally) Begun to Notice Bonds?
by Ivan Martchev October 29, 2024 There has been a huge move in Treasury yields, from 3.60% to 4.25%, in a relatively short period of time. I don't believe this recent spike [...]
10-22-24: It’s Groundhog Day (Again) in the Stock Market
by Ivan Martchev October 22, 2024 The stock market is acting like the weatherman (played by Bill Murray) in the movie “Groundhog Day.” He is covering the annual Groundhog Day event in [...]
10-15-24: We’re Seeing Some Seasonality in Reverse
by Ivan Martchev October 15, 2024 Another week and another all-time high in the S&P 500 and Dow Industrials make investors wonder what has happened to the negative seasonality that is supposed [...]
10-8-24: Beware the Market’s “Geopolitical Overhang” in October
by Ivan Martchev October 8, 2024 The stock market appears to be ignoring negative seasonal patterns in both September and early October and is trying to reach again for fresh all-time highs. [...]
10-1-24: Investors are Treating New Market Highs with Disbelief
by Ivan Martchev October 1, 2024 I am seeing the same type of trading in recent weeks that I saw in July, when marginal new highs were met with selling into strength, [...]
9-24-24: Another All-Time High, Now What?
by Ivan Martchev September 24, 2024 The S&P 500 Index made an all-time high last week, partially driven by an overzealous Fed, as it “recalibrated” its unreasonably hawkish policy, but also by [...]
9-17-24: A Fresh All-Time High in the S&P 500 Likely This Week
by Ivan Martchev September 17, 2024 After September opened with a down 4% week, not many observers, no matter how optimistic, expected a 4% up week to immediately follow it. After all, [...]
9-10-24: This is Just Normal Seasonal Jitters
by Ivan Martchev September 10, 2024 Those pundits that pronounced on TV that the yen carry trade was 50% to 75% unwound last month better be right, as the Japanese currency is [...]
9-4-24: Will This be a September to Remember?
by Ivan Martchev September 4, 2024 Over the last 95 years, September has been the worst month of the year, when it comes to seasonality, and the only month with average negative [...]