by Louis Navellier

July 9, 2024

Last Wednesday, ADP announced that 150,000 new private payroll jobs were created in June, but those jobs were not very broad-based. Nela Richardson, chief economist at ADP, said, “Had it not been for a rebound in hiring in leisure and hospitality, June would have been a downbeat month.”

ADP’s balanced jobs report, as usual, is probably closer to the truth than the more widely heralded Friday jobs report, which will likely be revised later on. ADP is based on actual payroll data, not sample surveys.

On Friday, the Labor Department announced that 206,000 payroll jobs were created in June, which was slightly higher than the economists’ consensus estimate of 190,000. Despite that robust new job total, the unemployment rate rose to 4.1% in June, from 4.0% in May. The other big news was that there was a substantial downward revision of 57,000 payroll jobs for April (108,000 now, down from the 165,000 jobs first reported) and a 54,000 negative revision for May (218,000 jobs, down from the initial 272,000).

This is caused by the Labor Department reporting initial job estimates too early in the month to be accurate. Also, about three quarters of June’s payroll growth was in government, healthcare and social assistance, according to The Wall Street Journal (“Government to the Jobs Rescue”). The Journal said, “These industries also made up roughly half of the new jobs in May and more than 90% in April.”  In contrast, June’s total manufacturing jobs declined by 8,000, the biggest monthly drop since February.

The Labor Department also announced on Wednesday that jobless claims rose to 238,000 in the latest week, up from a revised 234,000 in the previous week. This was the ninth straight week that jobless claims have steadily risen. Continuing unemployment claims rose to 1.858 million in the latest week, up from a revised 1.832 million in the previous week, the highest rate since November 2021.

In other economic news, the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) announced that its manufacturing index slipped to 48.5 in June, down from 48.7 in May. This represents the third straight monthly decline and the 19th time in the past 20 months the index fell below 50, the mark which signals a contraction.

The ISM service index has been below 50 in two of the past three months, dropping sharply from 53.8 in May to 48.8 in June. Also, the new export orders component declined to 48.8 in June, from 50.6 in May.

ISM Chairman Timothy R. Fiore, said, “Demand remains subdued, as companies demonstrate an unwillingness to invest in capital and inventory due to current monetary policy and other conditions,” adding that “62% of manufacturing gross domestic product (GDP) contracted in June, up from 55% in May.”  Ouch!  In addition, nine of the 17 manufacturing industries surveyed in June contracted.

The U.S. trade deficit rose 0.8% in May to $75.1 billion, the largest deficit since October 2022. Exports declined by 0.7% to $261.7 billion in May, while imports declined 0.3% to $336.7 billion. Any time both exports and imports are declining, it is a sign of weak worldwide economic growth. I suspect that economists will be trimming their second-quarter GDP estimates in the wake of the May trade data.

Sure enough, in the wake of the lagging ISM manufacturing report and lower trade data, the Atlanta Fed cut its second-quarter GDP estimate to a 1.5% annual pace, down from its previous estimate of 1.7%.

Update on the Contentious British, French and U.S. Elections

The outcome of the French elections are expected to dominate the news this week. In Britain, as expected, the Labour party scored a major victory last Thursday, the first major victory for the Labour party since 2005. New Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer is expected to rule as a moderate and not increase income or VAT (Value Added Tax). The new Labour party has promised to be pro-business and review the property tax levies that have annoyed many businesses. However, Britain, especially London, is home to many foreign billionaires, due to its favorable taxes on non-British citizens, so it will be interesting to see if Prime Minister Starmer will try to tax these non-voting foreign billionaires in new and innovative ways. Additionally, the offshore trusts than many wealthy British utilize to lower inheritance taxes may be disallowed by PM Starmer and his new majority in Parliament (412 of 650 seats), since taxing dead people is easier than taxing voters.

In France, first-round voting last week was the highest in nearly 40 years, which suggested that the conservative movement in France is stronger than ever. The right-wing Rassemblement National (RN) party, led by Marine Le Pen, won 33% of the vote, the left-wing Nouveau Front Populaire alliance, came in second with 28% of the vote, while Macron’s Ensemble alliance got only 22.4% of the vote.

At first, it looked like this French vote was a blow-back against both the European Union (EU) and French President Macron, but the early results of this Monday’s runoff election show that Marine Le Pen’s right-wing party came in third to the left-wing coalition, so it will not be such an uncomfortable power-sharing arrangement (known as a “cohabitation”) for Macron now, since he was once a Socialist in his youth.

In America, it looks like President Biden is stubbornly holding on to his delegates and his power, despite his dismal showing in the debate and in any live, unscripted interview, as opposed the tele-scripted rallies.

Most Democrat Party leaders want to replace Biden on the ticket. The easiest way for the Democratic National Committee (DNC) to replace him is for Biden to remove himself from the race. I posted a video several months ago predicting that California governor Gavin Newsom would be nominated in August at the DNC in Chicago. The last time anything like this happened was back in 1972, when the so-called “Superdelegates” replaced Vice Presidential candidate Thomas Eagleton with Sargent Shriver.

The polls are now shifting more in Trump’s favor, and some previously blue states, like New Hampshire and Virginia, are now expected to vote for Trump. Based on the electoral college, there appears to be no way Biden can get re-elected. One example of electoral college blindness in the Biden administration is in Pennsylvania. Last January, the Biden Administration halted LNG export applications and said it needed to “review how to account for climate risks of projects before approving exports.” At the time, I said this LNG ban had just cost President Biden the state of Pennsylvania, since the western part of the state is a big natural gas producer and LNG exporter. Last week, the Fifth Circuit Appeals Court reversed the Energy Department’s freeze on new LNG export approvals after 16 states sued the Department of Energy.

On top of that debacle, Hurricane Beryl is now expected to curtail offshore crude oil production as well as temporarily disrupt energy exports, while the Biden administration stubbornly resists energy expansion.

So, just like the student loan forgiveness that President Biden promised, but was subsequently denied, federal courts continue to overturn the Biden Administration executive orders!  Someone in the Biden Administration needs to take a civics course, since constantly fighting the federal courts seems futile.

On the day after President Biden fumbled so badly in the U.S. Presidential debate, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky said that he was drawing up a “comprehensive plan” for how Kyiv believes the war with Russia should end. Specifically, Zelensky said, “It is very important for us to show a plan to end the war that will be supported by the majority of the world.” Since France and Britain and the U.S. are mired in the midst (or threat) of regime change, these three powerful nations that have backed Ukraine and provided military aid to date suddenly have no time to help Zelensky or even meet with him.

Zelensky is obviously concerned that a victory by Donald Trump – as well as any right-wing shift in some EU nations – may scuttle further support for his undermanned and underfunded war effort, so Zelensky told Bloomberg TV on Wednesday that Donald Trump should come forward with his peace plan now, not later: “If Trump knows how to finish this war, he should tell us today.”  Zelensky added, “If there are risks to Ukrainian independence, if we lose statehood – we want to be ready … we want to know that now.”

We face interesting days and months ahead in this 2024 Presidential election race.

All content above represents the opinion of Louis Navellier of Navellier & Associates, Inc.

Please see important disclosures below.

About The Author

Louis Navellier

Louis Navellier is Founder, Chairman of the Board, Chief Investment Officer and Chief Compliance Officer of Navellier & Associates, Inc., located in Reno, Nevada. With decades of experience translating what had been purely academic techniques into real market applications, he believes that disciplined, quantitative analysis can select stocks that will significantly outperform the overall market. All content in this “A Look Ahead” section of Market Mail represents the opinion of Louis Navellier of Navellier & Associates, Inc.

Important Disclosures:

Although information in these reports has been obtained from and is based upon sources that Navellier believes to be reliable, Navellier does not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute Navellier’s judgment as of the date the report was created and are subject to change without notice. These reports are for informational purposes only and are not a solicitation for the purchase or sale of a security. Any decision to purchase securities mentioned in these reports must take into account existing public information on such securities or any registered prospectus.To the extent permitted by law, neither Navellier & Associates, Inc., nor any of its affiliates, agents, or service providers assumes any liability or responsibility nor owes any duty of care for any consequences of any person acting or refraining to act in reliance on the information contained in this communication or for any decision based on it.

Past performance is no indication of future results. Investment in securities involves significant risk and has the potential for partial or complete loss of funds invested. It should not be assumed that any securities recommendations made by Navellier. in the future will be profitable or equal the performance of securities made in this report. Dividend payments are not guaranteed. The amount of a dividend payment, if any, can vary over time and issuers may reduce dividends paid on securities in the event of a recession or adverse event affecting a specific industry or issuer.

None of the stock information, data, and company information presented herein constitutes a recommendation by Navellier or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Any specific securities identified and described do not represent all of the securities purchased, sold, or recommended for advisory clients. The holdings identified do not represent all of the securities purchased, sold, or recommended for advisory clients and the reader should not assume that investments in the securities identified and discussed were or will be profitable.

Information presented is general information that does not take into account your individual circumstances, financial situation, or needs, nor does it present a personalized recommendation to you. Individual stocks presented may not be suitable for every investor. Investment in securities involves significant risk and has the potential for partial or complete loss of funds invested. Investment in fixed income securities has the potential for the investment return and principal value of an investment to fluctuate so that an investor’s holdings, when redeemed, may be worth less than their original cost.

One cannot invest directly in an index. Index is unmanaged and index performance does not reflect deduction of fees, expenses, or taxes. Presentation of Index data does not reflect a belief by Navellier that any stock index constitutes an investment alternative to any Navellier equity strategy or is necessarily comparable to such strategies. Among the most important differences between the Indices and Navellier strategies are that the Navellier equity strategies may (1) incur material management fees, (2) concentrate its investments in relatively few stocks, industries, or sectors, (3) have significantly greater trading activity and related costs, and (4) be significantly more or less volatile than the Indices.

ETF Risk: We may invest in exchange traded funds (“ETFs”) and some of our investment strategies are generally fully invested in ETFs. Like traditional mutual funds, ETFs charge asset-based fees, but they generally do not charge initial sales charges or redemption fees and investors typically pay only customary brokerage fees to buy and sell ETF shares. The fees and costs charged by ETFs held in client accounts will not be deducted from the compensation the client pays Navellier. ETF prices can fluctuate up or down, and a client account could lose money investing in an ETF if the prices of the securities owned by the ETF go down. ETFs are subject to additional risks:

  • ETF shares may trade above or below their net asset value;
  • An active trading market for an ETF’s shares may not develop or be maintained;
  • The value of an ETF may be more volatile than the underlying portfolio of securities the ETF is designed to track;
  • The cost of owning shares of the ETF may exceed those a client would incur by directly investing in the underlying securities; and
  • Trading of an ETF’s shares may be halted if the listing exchange’s officials deem it appropriate, the shares are delisted from the exchange, or the activation of market-wide “circuit breakers” (which are tied to large decreases in stock prices) halts stock trading generally.

Grader Disclosures: Investment in equity strategies involves substantial risk and has the potential for partial or complete loss of funds invested. The sample portfolio and any accompanying charts are for informational purposes only and are not to be construed as a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument and should not be relied upon as the sole factor in an investment making decision. As a matter of normal and important disclosures to you, as a potential investor, please consider the following: The performance presented is not based on any actual securities trading, portfolio, or accounts, and the reported performance of the A, B, C, D, and F portfolios (collectively the “model portfolios”) should be considered mere “paper” or pro forma performance results based on Navellier’s research.

Investors evaluating any of Navellier & Associates, Inc.’s, (or its affiliates’) Investment Products must not use any information presented here, including the performance figures of the model portfolios, in their evaluation of any Navellier Investment Products. Navellier Investment Products include the firm’s mutual funds and managed accounts. The model portfolios, charts, and other information presented do not represent actual funded trades and are not actual funded portfolios. There are material differences between Navellier Investment Products’ portfolios and the model portfolios, research, and performance figures presented here. The model portfolios and the research results (1) may contain stocks or ETFs that are illiquid and difficult to trade; (2) may contain stock or ETF holdings materially different from actual funded Navellier Investment Product portfolios; (3) include the reinvestment of all dividends and other earnings, estimated trading costs, commissions, or management fees; and, (4) may not reflect prices obtained in an actual funded Navellier Investment Product portfolio. For these and other reasons, the reported performances of model portfolios do not reflect the performance results of Navellier’s actually funded and traded Investment Products. In most cases, Navellier’s Investment Products have materially lower performance results than the performances of the model portfolios presented.

This report contains statements that are, or may be considered to be, forward-looking statements. All statements that are not historical facts, including statements about our beliefs or expectations, are “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of The U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements may be identified by such forward-looking terminology as “expect,” “estimate,” “plan,” “intend,” “believe,” “anticipate,” “may,” “will,” “should,” “could,” “continue,” “project,” or similar statements or variations of such terms. Our forward-looking statements are based on a series of expectations, assumptions, and projections, are not guarantees of future results or performance, and involve substantial risks and uncertainty as described in Form ADV Part 2A of our filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), which is available at or by requesting a copy by emailing All of our forward-looking statements are as of the date of this report only. We can give no assurance that such expectations or forward-looking statements will prove to be correct. Actual results may differ materially. You are urged to carefully consider all such factors.

FEDERAL TAX ADVICE DISCLAIMER: As required by U.S. Treasury Regulations, you are informed that, to the extent this presentation includes any federal tax advice, the presentation is not written by Navellier to be used, and cannot be used, for the purpose of avoiding federal tax penalties. Navellier does not advise on any income tax requirements or issues. Use of any information presented by Navellier is for general information only and does not represent tax advice either express or implied. You are encouraged to seek professional tax advice for income tax questions and assistance.

IMPORTANT NEWSLETTER DISCLOSURE:The hypothetical performance results for investment newsletters that are authored or edited by Louis Navellier, including Louis Navellier’s Growth Investor, Louis Navellier’s Breakthrough Stocks, Louis Navellier’s Accelerated Profits, and Louis Navellier’s Platinum Club, are not based on any actual securities trading, portfolio, or accounts, and the newsletters’ reported hypothetical performances should be considered mere “paper” or proforma hypothetical performance results and are not actual performance of real world trades.  Navellier & Associates, Inc. does not have any relation to or affiliation with the owner of these newsletters. There are material differences between Navellier Investment Products’ portfolios and the InvestorPlace Media, LLC newsletter portfolios authored by Louis Navellier. The InvestorPlace Media, LLC newsletters contain hypothetical performance that do not include transaction costs, advisory fees, or other fees a client might incur if actual investments and trades were being made by an investor. As a result, newsletter performance should not be used to evaluate Navellier Investment services which are separate and different from the newsletters. The owner of the newsletters is InvestorPlace Media, LLC and any questions concerning the newsletters, including any newsletter advertising or hypothetical Newsletter performance claims, (which are calculated solely by Investor Place Media and not Navellier) should be referred to InvestorPlace Media, LLC at (800) 718-8289.

Please note that Navellier & Associates and the Navellier Private Client Group are managed completely independent of the newsletters owned and published by InvestorPlace Media, LLC and written and edited by Louis Navellier, and investment performance of the newsletters should in no way be considered indicative of potential future investment performance for any Navellier & Associates separately managed account portfolio. Potential investors should consult with their financial advisor before investing in any Navellier Investment Product.

Navellier claims compliance with Global Investment Performance Standards (GIPS). To receive a complete list and descriptions of Navellier’s composites and/or a presentation that adheres to the GIPS standards, please contact Navellier or click here. It should not be assumed that any securities recommendations made by Navellier & Associates, Inc. in the future will be profitable or equal the performance of securities made in this report.

FactSet Disclosure: Navellier does not independently calculate the statistical information included in the attached report. The calculation and the information are provided by FactSet, a company not related to Navellier. Although information contained in the report has been obtained from FactSet and is based on sources Navellier believes to be reliable, Navellier does not guarantee its accuracy, and it may be incomplete or condensed. The report and the related FactSet sourced information are provided on an “as is” basis. The user assumes the entire risk of any use made of this information. Investors should consider the report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. The report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of a security. FactSet sourced information is the exclusive property of FactSet. Without prior written permission of FactSet, this information may not be reproduced, disseminated or used to create any financial products. All indices are unmanaged and performance of the indices include reinvestment of dividends and interest income, unless otherwise noted, are not illustrative of any particular investment and an investment cannot be made in any index. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.