Sector Mail Archive
4-15-25: Probability is Harder to Track During this New “Age of Uncertainty”
by Jason Bodner April 15, 2025 Uncertainty was once left to fate, divine will, or simple luck. But in the 16th century, Gerolamo Cardano—a mathematician, physician, and gambler—applied logic and numbers to [...]
4-8-25: The Tariffs Will…Anyone? Anyone?… Raise or Lower Revenue?
by Jason Bodner April 8, 2025 There was a classic scene from the 1986 movie Ferris Bueller’s Day Off, in which the high school teacher (played by economist Ben Stein) was talking [...]
4-1-25: Did Margin Debt Fuel This March Market Madness?
by Jason Bodner April 1, 2025 “Upon us all a little rain must fall.” - from Led Zeppelin’s The Rain Song. April begins today, and there are songs about “April Showers” as [...]
3-25-25: Some Good News and Bad News About This Correction
by Jason Bodner March 25, 2025 A kid says to his mom: “Ma? I have some good news and bad news.” Mom says: “Give me the bad news first.” Kid: “I took [...]
3-18-25: When (Precisely) Will This Market Stop Collapsing?
by Jason Bodner March 18, 2025 If I were to use “click bait,” I could headline this piece, “WHY THE MARKET IS COLLAPSING -- AND THE EXACT DAY IT WILL END, from [...]
3-11-25: Are We in the Midst of a Bubble Mania (the Madness of Crowds)?
by Jason Bodner March 11, 2025 In 1841, Charles Mackay wrote “Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds,” a thick read, but important in understanding the human mind’s approach to investing. [...]
3-4-25: March – A New Month That is Almost Like a New Year!
by Jason Bodner March 4, 2025 It’s March! Happy New Year – if you were born before 45 B.C. March was the first month of the year before the Roman calendar was [...]
2-25-25: A Mid-Quarter S&P Sector Review
by Jason Bodner February 25, 2025 Most of the country is currently in a deep freeze – except south Florida, where I live. Sorry about that! But February in the southern-hemisphere is [...]
2-19-25: The Market is Embracing Change … So Far
by Jason Bodner February 19, 2025 Trump 2.0 is just 30-days old today, yet it feels like a lifetime – for many. Daily headlines can seem both unsettling and challenging, on many [...]
2-11-25: Don’t Fall Victim to “Recency Bias” (Take a History Pill)
by Jason Bodner February 11, 2025 Remember the tech crash of 2025? The one where Nvidia (I own personally and in managed accounts) fell almost 17% in a day? It was the [...]
1-28-25: Catch a Wave and You’re Sitting on Top of the World
by Jason Bodner January 28, 2025 In December 2004, I was in Thailand on vacation with my wife and 3-month-old son. Then the unthinkable happened. The Boxing Day Tsunami hit, killing over [...]
1-22-25: Don’t Trust Any 10-Day Forecasts … About Anything
by Jason Bodner January 22, 2025 Would it surprise you if I told you that weather forecast accuracy falls the farther out you go? Probably not, right? I mean, if the Weather [...]