Thank you again for joining us on our deep dive into the trends impacting investors in 2023.

After the rollercoaster ride of 2022, many investors are eyeing the sidelines and wondering when the markets will start to act rationally again.

The team here at Navellier & Associates has spent considerable time uncovering exactly what news the market is reacting to and what it will continue to contend with as we work our way through the year.

In our last update, we covered the top U.S. Economic factors along with expectations for the Federal Reserve. We explored avoiding a recession with a “soft landing” for the economy and took a look at the value of the U.S. Dollar and what that means for earnings. If you missed it, you can view the full details here.

Today, we’re going to continue to reveal our ongoing research: 23 Trends Impacting Investors This Year.

This installment will start by focusing on international trends as well as what is happening with commodities. In all, we’ll cover six more market trends impacting investors in 2023.

And remember, we’re releasing this research as quickly as it is completed, and we will email it to you immediately.>/p>

Let’s dive right in…

6 More Predictions for 2023

Top International Expectations

Prediction #7: Russia Remains a Wild Card

Russia’s invasion of the Ukraine in early 2022 certainly caught us all off guard. I have several Russian friends, and they were even shocked that Vladimir Putin invaded. It’s no secret that Putin likes to posture, but they didn’t expect an invasion—and the invasion has been a big mess.

I’ve been bugging my Russian friends about what they expect this year, but they’ve been pretty quiet on the matter so far. In my opinion, it’s not going to end well for Russia. The U.S. military complex continues to upgrade the Ukrainian forces, and NATO is right there, too.

The real risk right now is if Russia will break into six states. A lot of the countries along the Caspian Sea could break away. Overall, we’ll have to wait and see what happens in Russia, but we can expect the uncertainty to persist and for Russia to remain a wild card this year.

Prediction #8: COVID Continues to Wreak Havoc in China

The Chinese COVID Crisis continues… a large wave of COVID inflections swept across the country in early December 2022 through January 2023. The variant that spread across China scared a lot of people, as there were more COVID-related deaths, a lot of folks were sick, and the hospitals were full. As a result, there’s also been a sharp disruption to mobility, shipment and business activity in the country. That’s the bad news.

The good news is that most people will survive the latest COVID strain, and the Chinese population can get closer to achieving “herd immunity.” Also, after three years of international air travel out of China restricted, the country is finally reopening—and more and more Chinese can get out and about. So, China’s economic growth should improve in the upcoming months.

Prediction #9: Yen Rally Is Likely Over

The Japanese yen staged an impressive rally in the latter half of 2022, but Ivan Martchev, an Investment Strategist with Navellier & Associates, thinks this momentum has stalled—and there’s a lot of downside from here…

“The low in the yen at 151.95 (per dollar) in October closely coincides with the top in long-term U.S. interest rates (the yen is on an inverted scale here, so when the chart is going up, the yen is weaker, as it means more yen per dollar). Then, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) decided to raise the upper band of the 10-year JGB yield, which will allow it to trade up by 25 basis points (from 25 to 50 bps). That caused a violent surge in the yen as well as an upswing on both U.S. and European long-term bond yields.

Graphs are for illustrative and discussion purposes only.
Please read important disclosures at the end of this commentary.

Before the BOJ’s decision, the yen was primarily driven by Federal Reserve and European Central Bank (ECB) monetary policy, but now the BOJ has stepped in. Still, it is not expected that there will be any more moves by the BOJ before its Governor Haruhiko Kuroda steps down in 2023 and his successor gets to take a fresh look at how to deal with the Japanese situation, which has been in a deflationary malaise for the better part of the past 30 years.

U.S. long-term rates began to move up again after European rates, which were significantly more responsive to the ECB monetary policy meeting in late 2022. If the 10-year U.S. yield rises above 4% and retests the highs from October, the yen likely has a lot of downside to go, given how far it has moved from its October lows. I don’t think it will hit 152 again, but stranger things have happened.”[1]

Top Commodity Expectations
Prediction #10: Lithium Prices Remain Elevated—and Hinder EV Sales

It’s important to recognize that the electric vehicle (EV) industry struggled in 2022. Apparently, no one is making money in the EV business, as prices soared, and inventories built. One of the main issues is that there remains an acute battery shortage.

Right now, most EVs are either built with iron-phosphate batteries or lithium-ion batteries. You may know that iron-phosphate batteries are heavier and less efficient than lithium-ion batteries, so they have lower ranges and are primarily used in lower-range city cars. Lithium-ion batteries, on the other hand, can be charged up to 100% (versus a recommended 85% for lithium-ion batteries) and do not catch on fire. What this means is lithium is in high demand—and that’s driving prices to the sky.

Since 2020, the price of lithium has soared more than 1,000% to almost $80,000 per ton. Given the surge in lithium prices, EV prices have also soared, and they are now largely luxury vehicles since battery costs have risen dramatically as the cost of not only lithium but also cobalt and nickel have jumped from strong battery demand.

To try to keep up with demand, lithium production has increased around the world. The world’s largest lithium producer, Albemarle, noted that worldwide production of lithium was only 300,000 tons, with rates between 30,000 and 50,000 tons per year back in 2019. The production of lithium is now growing by 200,000 tons per year.[2] However, lithium facilities are producing lower grades of lithium, which is keeping prices high.

Given these high prices, there’s an acute battery shortage that’s hindering the EV industry. The International Energy Agency (IEA) even stated recently that batteries and hydrogen were not ready to be deployed at scale. The fact is large battery storage facilities are still cost prohibitive.

Now, the EV revolution may hit the gas again as inventories of EVs build and discounts are offered. But with lithium prices elevated and supplies limited, the luxury price tags on most EVs will likely deter many consumers from making the switch to an electric-powered vehicle this year.

Prediction #11: Gold Prices Soar Higher

Gold prices had a tough 2022, given that the U.S. dollar was incredibly strong. Senior Writer Gary Alexander recently pointed out that the U.S. dollar and gold prices tend to have an inverse relationship, in that when one is up, the other is down. Interestingly, though, gold prices still ended 2022 slightly higher—and Alexander expects the yellow metal to continue to rise in 2023.

“Gold and silver actually ended 2022 up a bit, due to the dollar’s decline since October. In the last two months of the calendar year, gold shot up over $200 per ounce, from $1,627 to $1,830 (+12.5%), while silver rocketed from $18.01 on October 13 to $24.13 at year’s end, up 34%. A couple of respected analysts are predicting $3,000 to $4,000 gold this year. I won’t go near those figures, but a new high at $2,100 gold and a 10-year high of $30 silver seem reasonable, as well as $110 oil sometime in the spring.”[3]

Graphs are for illustrative and discussion purposes only.
Please read important disclosures at the end of this commentary.

Prediction #12: Global Coal Consumption Remains at Record-High Levels

While coal is viewed as a “dirty” energy resource and much of the world tried to move away from coal-generated power, it made a big comeback in 2022. In fact, many countries like Germany, China and India have opened new coal plants or fired up old plants in an attempt to combat soaring electricity prices with a cheaper energy source.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) anticipates that global coal consumption set new records in 2022, surpassing eight billion tons for the first time ever. And coal demand isn’t anticipated to decline in the near-term either. The IEA expects coal consumption to remain at these elevated levels through 2025 given strong demand in emerging countries.[4]

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) concurs, anticipating that coal production will rise well into 2023, as coal inventories need to be replenished. Currently, the EIA expects coal production in the U.S. to expand to 605.2 million tonnes in 2023.[5] U.S. coal exports are also anticipated to rise to 98 million tonnes in 2023, as Europe seeks to break away from its dependence on Russian natural gas.[6]

Watch Your Inbox

We hope you enjoyed today’s research and that you have a better understanding of the international factors impacting our stock market as well as what is happening with commodity prices in the near term. Please watch your inbox in the next day or so for the next eight market trends impacting investors in 2023.

In the meantime…

An Opportunity to Get Personalized Investment Advice

Understanding market trends and turning that into an actionable investment strategy are two different things.

At Navellier & Associates, we don’t just talk about how the market can impact investors. We have spent the last three-plus decades creating custom portfolio strategies for investors like you.

If you would like to speak with us about your specific market concerns and goals, click here to see if you qualify for a one-on-one review of your holdings and strategy. Then, simply provide us with your basic information and we’ll contact you to explain how we can analyze your current strategy and how it could be customized for your specific goals and risk tolerance.

All the best to you and yours,

Louis Navellier
Chief Investment Officer
Navellier & Associates, Inc. │ Private Client Group

[1] https://navellier.com/12-28-22-the-yen-rally-is-likely-over/
[2] https://www.ft.com/content/6ecd076e-5e71-490d-8852-b978d6ad3951
[3] https://navellier.com/1-4-23-expect-less-of-the-same-blessedly-in-2023/
[4] https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/energy/2022/12/18/coal-consumption-record-2022-energy-crisis-iea/10921266002/
[5] https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/podcasts/focus/090222-interview-nick-powell-fecc-univar-solutions-chemical-distribution-petrochemicals-price-covid-ukraine
[6] https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/coal.php

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