by Louis Navellier
May 5, 2026
One big surprise coming out of last week’s rather unusual press conference by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell was his announced decision to stay on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) as a Governor after Kevin Warsh takes over as the new Fed Chair this month. This press conference was positioned as Powell’s “swan song” on the Board before Warsh takes over, but Powell isn’t leaving.
In a mixed (8-to-4) vote, the four dissenters included three hawks (Beth Hammack of Cleveland, Neel Kashkari of Minneapolis and Lorie Logan of Dallas) plus one dove (Stephen Miran). Due to this divided FOMC, Kevin Warsh will have to work hard to get all the FOMC members to achieve a consensus.
Neel Kashkari, President of the Minneapolis Fed, said, “I believe the FOMC should offer a policy outlook that signals that the next rate change could be either a cut or a hike, depending on how the economy evolves.” Kashkari added: “This could tighten financial conditions somewhat today, pushing back against a high-inflation scenario that could require an even stronger monetary policy response in the future.”
In a separate statement, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said the economy has been resilient so far this year, but rising oil prices add to broad-based inflationary pressures. Specifically, Hammack said, “Uncertainty around the economic outlook has increased in 2026 and makes the future path for monetary policy more uncertain, as well.” Hammack added, “I see this clear easing bias as no longer appropriate given the outlook.” So, the Fed hawks are apparently worried about higher energy prices fueling inflation.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and incoming Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh certainly have their hands full. In the Kevin Warsh era, the Fed will also have to keep an eye out for the bond vigilantes, now that the federal government’s cumulative debt exceeds 100% of GDP. There has been some talk Scott Bessent and Warsh may explore coordinated actions to push Treasury yields lower. This may be just Wall Street gossip, since Warsh must get more members on the FOMC to agree with him first. However, as more central banks conduct quantitative easing (i.e., money printing), the U.S. will have some more flexibility.
Whatever Bessent and Warsh do, they do not want to weaken the U.S. dollar, since a strong dollar is naturally deflationary, as it lowers the price of commodities (priced in dollars) and imported goods.
Consumer Confidence Improves …As it Usually Does in the Spring
Last Tuesday, the Conference Board said its consumer confidence index rose to 92.8 in April, up from a revised 92.2 in March. The expectations component rose 1.2-points in April, while the present situation component slipped 1.8-points, as higher gasoline prices weigh on consumer confidence, short-term.
On Wednesday, the Commerce Department announced new housing starts rose 10.8% in March to a 1.8-million annual pace, the highest level since December of 2024. Single-family home starts rose 9.7% in March to a 1.03-million annual pace, although building permits declined to an annualized pace of 1.37-million in March. I suspect warmer spring weather positively impacted the March housing starts.
The other piece of positive economic news last week was durable goods orders rising 0.8% in March. Core capital goods surged 3.3%, as well as a 1.6% upward revision in February. Core capital goods are now rising at their fastest pace since 2020, so first-quarter GDP may be stronger than economists expect.
On Friday, the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) announced its manufacturing index was unchanged at 52.7 in April. This was the fourth-straight reading over 50, reflecting economic expansion. The new orders component rose to 54.1 in April, up from 53.5 in March, and the price component surged to 84.6 in April, up from 78.3 in March. In the past three months, the prices component has surged 25.6-points!
Also, 13 of the 16-manufacturing industries ISM surveyed reported expanding in April, so the economy seems to be coming back strongly after a weak beginning to the year.
Meanwhile, The War in Iran Is Reaching a Critical Crossroads
The Naval blockade in Iran is reaching a critical point, since Iran has minimal storage facilities, its oil wells will have to be capped soon. Once these wells are capped, it could take months to reactivate them.
It will be interesting to see if infighting within Iran will result in a return to economic sanity. The goal of the Naval blockade remains to cut off funds to the Iranian Revolutionary Guards. The Wall Street Journal said Iran is struggling to store its unsold crude oil – by storing crude oil in old tanks. And if Iran caps its wells, such a move will curtail production for months, since restarting oil wells takes a lot of engineering.
Crude oil prices are expected to remain high, since even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens, world energy and fertilizer markets have been profoundly impacted. I don’t expect any crude oil price relief until October, when worldwide demand has its normal seasonal decline. Ironically, higher prices could help many stock markets around the world, since commodity-related stocks can act as an inflation hedge.
As further evidence the U.S. now controls worldwide crude oil prices, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) announced it was leaving OPEC, which is a blow to Saudi Arabia. The UAE has complained for several years about crude oil quotas, so its departure from OPEC is not too much of a surprise. If and when the Strait of Hormuz is reopened, the UAE will be likely boosting its crude oil exports.
The bottleneck at the Strait of Hormuz remains a problem for the rest of the world, but the U.S. is largely unaffected–with the exception of California, which imports up to 30% of its gasoline from Asian sources.
All content above represents the opinion of Louis Navellier of Navellier & Associates, Inc.
Also In This Issue
A Look Ahead by Louis Navellier
The Ghost of Jerome Powell Still Haunts the Fed
Income Mail by Bryan Perry
The Current Crisis in the Oil Market
Growth Mail by Gary Alexander
Happy Birthday, Karl Marx: When Will Your Ideas Disappear?
Global Mail by Ivan Martchev
The Stock Market Has Assumed the Iran War is Over
Sector Spotlight by Jason Bodner
Rare Earth Minerals Better Become Less Rare…Fast
View Full Archive
Read Past Issues Here
Louis Navellier
CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER
Louis Navellier is Founder, Chairman of the Board, Chief Investment Officer and Chief Compliance Officer of Navellier & Associates, Inc., located in Reno, Nevada. With decades of experience translating what had been purely academic techniques into real market applications, he believes that disciplined, quantitative analysis can select stocks that will significantly outperform the overall market. All content in this “A Look Ahead” section of Market Mail represents the opinion of Louis Navellier of Navellier & Associates, Inc.
Important Disclosures:
Although information in these reports has been obtained from and is based upon sources that Navellier believes to be reliable, Navellier does not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute Navellier’s judgment as of the date the report was created and are subject to change without notice. These reports are for informational purposes only and are not a solicitation for the purchase or sale of a security. Any decision to purchase securities mentioned in these reports must take into account existing public information on such securities or any registered prospectus.To the extent permitted by law, neither Navellier & Associates, Inc., nor any of its affiliates, agents, or service providers assumes any liability or responsibility nor owes any duty of care for any consequences of any person acting or refraining to act in reliance on the information contained in this communication or for any decision based on it.
Past performance is no indication of future results. Investment in securities involves significant risk and has the potential for partial or complete loss of funds invested. It should not be assumed that any securities recommendations made by Navellier. in the future will be profitable or equal the performance of securities made in this report. Dividend payments are not guaranteed. The amount of a dividend payment, if any, can vary over time and issuers may reduce dividends paid on securities in the event of a recession or adverse event affecting a specific industry or issuer.
None of the stock information, data, and company information presented herein constitutes a recommendation by Navellier or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Any specific securities identified and described do not represent all of the securities purchased, sold, or recommended for advisory clients. The holdings identified do not represent all of the securities purchased, sold, or recommended for advisory clients and the reader should not assume that investments in the securities identified and discussed were or will be profitable.
Information presented is general information that does not take into account your individual circumstances, financial situation, or needs, nor does it present a personalized recommendation to you. Individual stocks presented may not be suitable for every investor. Investment in securities involves significant risk and has the potential for partial or complete loss of funds invested. Investment in fixed income securities has the potential for the investment return and principal value of an investment to fluctuate so that an investor’s holdings, when redeemed, may be worth less than their original cost.
One cannot invest directly in an index. Index is unmanaged and index performance does not reflect deduction of fees, expenses, or taxes. Presentation of Index data does not reflect a belief by Navellier that any stock index constitutes an investment alternative to any Navellier equity strategy or is necessarily comparable to such strategies. Among the most important differences between the Indices and Navellier strategies are that the Navellier equity strategies may (1) incur material management fees, (2) concentrate its investments in relatively few stocks, industries, or sectors, (3) have significantly greater trading activity and related costs, and (4) be significantly more or less volatile than the Indices.
ETF Risk: We may invest in exchange traded funds (“ETFs”) and some of our investment strategies are generally fully invested in ETFs. Like traditional mutual funds, ETFs charge asset-based fees, but they generally do not charge initial sales charges or redemption fees and investors typically pay only customary brokerage fees to buy and sell ETF shares. The fees and costs charged by ETFs held in client accounts will not be deducted from the compensation the client pays Navellier. ETF prices can fluctuate up or down, and a client account could lose money investing in an ETF if the prices of the securities owned by the ETF go down. ETFs are subject to additional risks:
- ETF shares may trade above or below their net asset value;
- An active trading market for an ETF’s shares may not develop or be maintained;
- The value of an ETF may be more volatile than the underlying portfolio of securities the ETF is designed to track;
- The cost of owning shares of the ETF may exceed those a client would incur by directly investing in the underlying securities; and
- Trading of an ETF’s shares may be halted if the listing exchange’s officials deem it appropriate, the shares are delisted from the exchange, or the activation of market-wide “circuit breakers” (which are tied to large decreases in stock prices) halts stock trading generally.
Grader Disclosures: Investment in equity strategies involves substantial risk and has the potential for partial or complete loss of funds invested. The sample portfolio and any accompanying charts are for informational purposes only and are not to be construed as a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument and should not be relied upon as the sole factor in an investment making decision. As a matter of normal and important disclosures to you, as a potential investor, please consider the following: The performance presented is not based on any actual securities trading, portfolio, or accounts, and the reported performance of the A, B, C, D, and F portfolios (collectively the “model portfolios”) should be considered mere “paper” or pro forma performance results based on Navellier’s research.
Investors evaluating any of Navellier & Associates, Inc.’s, (or its affiliates’) Investment Products must not use any information presented here, including the performance figures of the model portfolios, in their evaluation of any Navellier Investment Products. Navellier Investment Products include the firm’s mutual funds and managed accounts. The model portfolios, charts, and other information presented do not represent actual funded trades and are not actual funded portfolios. There are material differences between Navellier Investment Products’ portfolios and the model portfolios, research, and performance figures presented here. The model portfolios and the research results (1) may contain stocks or ETFs that are illiquid and difficult to trade; (2) may contain stock or ETF holdings materially different from actual funded Navellier Investment Product portfolios; (3) include the reinvestment of all dividends and other earnings, estimated trading costs, commissions, or management fees; and, (4) may not reflect prices obtained in an actual funded Navellier Investment Product portfolio. For these and other reasons, the reported performances of model portfolios do not reflect the performance results of Navellier’s actually funded and traded Investment Products. In most cases, Navellier’s Investment Products have materially lower performance results than the performances of the model portfolios presented.
This report contains statements that are, or may be considered to be, forward-looking statements. All statements that are not historical facts, including statements about our beliefs or expectations, are “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of The U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements may be identified by such forward-looking terminology as “expect,” “estimate,” “plan,” “intend,” “believe,” “anticipate,” “may,” “will,” “should,” “could,” “continue,” “project,” or similar statements or variations of such terms. Our forward-looking statements are based on a series of expectations, assumptions, and projections, are not guarantees of future results or performance, and involve substantial risks and uncertainty as described in Form ADV Part 2A of our filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), which is available at www.adviserinfo.sec.gov or by requesting a copy by emailing info@navellier.com. All of our forward-looking statements are as of the date of this report only. We can give no assurance that such expectations or forward-looking statements will prove to be correct. Actual results may differ materially. You are urged to carefully consider all such factors.
FEDERAL TAX ADVICE DISCLAIMER: As required by U.S. Treasury Regulations, you are informed that, to the extent this presentation includes any federal tax advice, the presentation is not written by Navellier to be used, and cannot be used, for the purpose of avoiding federal tax penalties. Navellier does not advise on any income tax requirements or issues. Use of any information presented by Navellier is for general information only and does not represent tax advice either express or implied. You are encouraged to seek professional tax advice for income tax questions and assistance.
IMPORTANT NEWSLETTER DISCLOSURE:The hypothetical performance results for investment newsletters that are authored or edited by Louis Navellier, including Louis Navellier’s Growth Investor, Louis Navellier’s Breakthrough Stocks, Louis Navellier’s Accelerated Profits, and Louis Navellier’s Platinum Club, are not based on any actual securities trading, portfolio, or accounts, and the newsletters’ reported hypothetical performances should be considered mere “paper” or proforma hypothetical performance results and are not actual performance of real world trades. Navellier & Associates, Inc. does not have any relation to or affiliation with the owner of these newsletters. There are material differences between Navellier Investment Products’ portfolios and the InvestorPlace Media, LLC newsletter portfolios authored by Louis Navellier. The InvestorPlace Media, LLC newsletters contain hypothetical performance that do not include transaction costs, advisory fees, or other fees a client might incur if actual investments and trades were being made by an investor. As a result, newsletter performance should not be used to evaluate Navellier Investment services which are separate and different from the newsletters. The owner of the newsletters is InvestorPlace Media, LLC and any questions concerning the newsletters, including any newsletter advertising or hypothetical Newsletter performance claims, (which are calculated solely by Investor Place Media and not Navellier) should be referred to InvestorPlace Media, LLC at (800) 718-8289.
Please note that Navellier & Associates and the Navellier Private Client Group are managed completely independent of the newsletters owned and published by InvestorPlace Media, LLC and written and edited by Louis Navellier, and investment performance of the newsletters should in no way be considered indicative of potential future investment performance for any Navellier & Associates separately managed account portfolio. Potential investors should consult with their financial advisor before investing in any Navellier Investment Product.
Navellier claims compliance with Global Investment Performance Standards (GIPS). To receive a complete list and descriptions of Navellier’s composites and/or a presentation that adheres to the GIPS standards, please contact Navellier or click here. It should not be assumed that any securities recommendations made by Navellier & Associates, Inc. in the future will be profitable or equal the performance of securities made in this report.
FactSet Disclosure: Navellier does not independently calculate the statistical information included in the attached report. The calculation and the information are provided by FactSet, a company not related to Navellier. Although information contained in the report has been obtained from FactSet and is based on sources Navellier believes to be reliable, Navellier does not guarantee its accuracy, and it may be incomplete or condensed. The report and the related FactSet sourced information are provided on an “as is” basis. The user assumes the entire risk of any use made of this information. Investors should consider the report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. The report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of a security. FactSet sourced information is the exclusive property of FactSet. Without prior written permission of FactSet, this information may not be reproduced, disseminated or used to create any financial products. All indices are unmanaged and performance of the indices include reinvestment of dividends and interest income, unless otherwise noted, are not illustrative of any particular investment and an investment cannot be made in any index. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.