by Ivan Martchev
April 28, 2026
April is not over, but we are already close to a 13% rise in the S&P 500 since March 30, closing Friday at a new all-time high. The market is trading like it has made a major bottom, after not pulling back much.
Investors read the current de-escalation in Iran as an end to the war, with the only thing likely to spoil the party, creating some type of correction, is restarting the war, followed by the oil price making new highs.
Iran’s leaders know about our November elections coming in the U.S., so they appear to be dragging their feet trying to get a better deal – as they know we want to wrap the war up. This is evident from the failed Islamabad talks. The Trump administration secured a three-week ceasefire in Lebanon (which was necessary for an Iran deal). Still, the key takeaway is oil is not flowing at a normal rate through the Strait of Hormuz and so the oil price will likely begin to respond with an upside bias this week.
Graphs are for illustrative and discussion purposes only. Please read important disclosures at the end of this commentary.
WTI crude oil has not spent much time above $100, so any surge above that level will not be liked by the stock market and may create a much-needed correction, as small as it may be. Oil supplies are running low on buffer inventories and rationing has started in some countries. Every day, the Strait of Hormuz remains practically closed suggests a higher oil price for longer (even if the Strait reopens) as inventories need to be rebuilt. After dealing with rationing, some countries are likely to keep more oil than they had before in inventory. That implies elevated demand compared with normal levels, before the Strait closure.
Graphs are for illustrative and discussion purposes only. Please read important disclosures at the end of this commentary.
In March, we went from hugging (or walking) the Bollinger Bands (indicating selling pressure) to waking those bands up in April (indicating buying pressure), almost at the flip of a switch.
One reason for such a dramatic reversal is the stock market declined about 10% during the height of Iran hostilities while S&P 500 earnings estimates went up! Earnings going up and stock prices going down is not typically a sustainable situation, as it tends to resolve itself in the typical manner.
So far, this is similar to last year’s Tariff Tantrum, when stocks went down sharply at the onset of cost-prohibitive tariffs, but then a fierce rally began after a 90-day delay was instituted. The Trump administration never intended to keep the original tariffs at their initial cost-prohibitive levels and never intended to keep the Iran war going past the running out of buffer oil inventories in the global system.
The only problem now is the time of the war ending is mostly up to Iran and U.S.-Israel talks, where the Tariff Tantrum ended quickly since the U.S. was the only decision maker, with China being the only country retaliating. I keep thinking the Iranians know all this and are dragging their feet intentionally, as they know the Trump team will be reluctant to restart hostilities, even though they may not have a choice.
One sector strongly suggesting the stock market is extended is the semiconductor sector, which by some measures is the most overbought in years, the only outlier being the ultimate top in the year 2000.
At 85.11, the RSI overbought-oversold oscillator is higher today than it was in late October of last year when we started to see a nice size correction of about 5% for the S&P 500 in November.
Graphs are for illustrative and discussion purposes only. Please read important disclosures at the end of this commentary.
The thing about these overbought-oversold oscillators, though, is they are not precise. Momentum markets can get overbought and stay overbought and the semiconductor sector is definitely a momentum market. If you are bullish, you want this sector to have some type of consolidation similar to what we saw in November of last year, but I am aware this may last all the way till the end of May, or May 20 to be exact, the day Nvidia reports earnings. We have many more earnings reports in the next three-weeks and the vast majority are likely to be very good. Since the stock market just began running, corrections are likely to be shallow (more like sideways moving consolidations), similar to action we saw last week.
Graphs are for illustrative and discussion purposes only. Please read important disclosures at the end of this commentary.
Intel Rises from Disaster to Record Highs in Short Order
One of the bigger culprits is Intel, which went from an operational disaster last year, when a new CEO took over, to become a company closing at an all-time high last Friday! Intel has doubled in a month and quadrupled since last August, when the Trump administration took a 10% stake in a “nationally important company” spearheading domestic chip production. I would not put it past Donald Trump to call Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang to nudge him to take a stake in Intel – which he did in December of last year.
Graphs are for illustrative and discussion purposes only. Please read important disclosures at the end of this commentary.
So, the U.S. government has quadrupled its money in Intel, while Nvidia has more than doubled their stake. (While Intel is clearly in a turnaround, I would not chase the stock here. Some pullback is likely).
It seems the only way to spoil this bullish market is by the war restarting in earnest, and oil prices rising.
Navellier & Associates; own Nvidia Corp (NVDA), and Intel Corp (INTC), in managed accounts. Ivan Martchev does not own Intel Corp (INTC), or Nvidia Corp (NVDA) personally.
All content above represents the opinion of Ivan Martchev of Navellier & Associates, Inc.
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Ivan Martchev
INVESTMENT STRATEGIST
Ivan Martchev is an investment strategist with Navellier. Previously, Ivan served as editorial director at InvestorPlace Media. Ivan was editor of Louis Rukeyser’s Mutual Funds and associate editor of Personal Finance. Ivan is also co-author of The Silk Road to Riches (Financial Times Press). The book provided analysis of geopolitical issues and investment strategy in natural resources and emerging markets with an emphasis on Asia. The book also correctly predicted the collapse in the U.S. real estate market, the rise of precious metals, and the resulting increased investor interest in emerging markets. Ivan’s commentaries have been published by MSNBC, The Motley Fool, MarketWatch, and others. All content of “Global Mail” represents the opinion of Ivan Martchev
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