by Gary Alexander
September 16, 2025
On Friday, September 5th, the market soared to all-time highs based on a low job count, which indicates a greater likelihood of rate cuts this week. But my question has always been: Why does the market usually make such profound moves based on their knee-jerk reaction to a bogus (or at least premature) job count?
Fed Chair Powell always chimes in with his mantra that the Fed’s policy decisions are “data dependent,” but what if that data is nearly worthless – even according to the government’s own job-counting agency?
Last Tuesday, September 9, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) published the result of its latest annual audit of their reported job totals each month, and the 12-month miss was staggering this time. It turns out that there were 911,000 fewer jobs created than reported for the year April 2024 to March 2025 (which is composed of 80% Biden’s watch, and 20% Trump’s). The original estimates averaged +146,000 per month, and the audited totals are over 50% lower, at 70,000 per month, or 76,000 fewer jobs per month.
Tallying their longer-term inaccuracy, since 2022, we find nearly three-million bogus jobs counted, nearly all in the Biden years. Combining its last three-annual benchmark audits with monthly misses, the BLS counted 2.85-million non-existent jobs since January 2022, mostly in the reputedly booming Biden era.
Graphs are for illustrative and discussion purposes only. Please read important disclosures at the end of this commentary.
Why such monstrous misses? The main culprit is the low rate of responses to the BLS’ monthly survey. Out of 33-million U.S. businesses – large and small – the BLS contacts an average 650,000-businesses per month (a 2% sample), but their response rate is now down to just 43%, since only 280,000 of the 650,000-businesses respond. That’s a self-selected response rate from under 1% of all U.S. businesses. And, when they get no response, the BLS says they “intuit” an answer. That sounds more like a séance than science.
We also need to question the veracity and value of the business survey, when it’s so hard to define a “job” in this era of the gig economy, off-the books moonlighting, plus a young male labor strike out on strike.
Even before COVID, we saw a new relationship between work and life in America. More workers were “playing the system,” opting for early retirement at generous pension levels through government or union contracts, or gaming the disability system. With far safer workplaces than the coal-mining era of 70-years (and 16-tons) ago, far more workers discovered bad backs or designer diseases that kept them out of work (while quadriplegic Charles Krauthammer was able to finish medical school and work at the top level of several careers without use of 90% of his body below his chest. I guess some people are wired to work).
Since 2020, many have worked from home, at first by force of law, then by choice. Homework cuts down on myriad costs – commuting time and gasoline, wardrobe costs, childcare expense, office rent and more – and it could be the “green” solution many ecologists yearn for – without the mandate of electric cars.
Some employers are now demanding workers return to the office, but many either resist the draft, or quit, as the 1919 song lamented: “How’ya gonna keep ‘em down on the farm, after they’ve seen Paree?”
From the 1850s to the 1950s men aged 25 to 54 felt they had to work, so about 87% of prime working age men were either at work or looking for work (that is, in the Labor Force). That number is now 67%.
Graphs are for illustrative and discussion purposes only. Please read important disclosures at the end of this commentary.
Before the pandemic, the three major reasons for lower male labor rates were: (1) skyrocketing disability claims and drug addiction; (2) lower incentives for work and higher rewards for not working; and (3) viable off-the-grid options. In a 2017 paper (“Where Have All the Workers Gone? An inquiry Into the Decline of the U.S. Labor Force Participation Rate”), Princeton economist Alan Krueger found that nearly half of all prime working age males not in the labor force (PWAM-NILFs) “take pain medication on a daily basis, and in nearly two-thirds of these cases they take prescription pain medication.” With limited immigrant labor now, America’s men need to put their big-boy pants on and get back to work.
The “Roaring-20s” Began Near This Date – In 1920, 2020… and 1620
The Roaring-20s was the nickname for the market surge and technological gains of the 1920s, including the mass marketing of automobiles, radio, aircraft technology and communications. But that decade began with a dismal depression, a 47% crash in the Dow, a “Red Scare,” a crippling influenza plague and that big bomb on September 16, 1920 on Wall Street, killing-38 and injuring hundreds, as described last week.
The Dow fell 45% from 119.62 on November 13, 1919, to 66.75 on December 21, 1920, before reviving:
Source: Stock Trader’s Almanac
Graphs are for illustrative and discussion purposes only. Please read important disclosures at the end of this commentary.
Could we see the same kinds of market gains in the late 2020s that we saw in the late 1920s? Well, the same sort of scary shock launched the current not-yet-roaring ‘20s, with a deadly COVID epidemic and enforced national lock-down. However, the market and economy recovered rapidly in both the 1920s and 2020s. In September 2020, the Dow returned to 29,000, its pre-COVID panic high level, and the economy also soared back in the second half of 2020, due in large part to an avalanche of federal relief checks.
Looking back, we’ve seen other dramatic events at the start of previous Roaring 20s – on this date, like:
On September 16, 1620, a determined band of 35-religious dissenters, plus 67 non-Puritan separatists and a crew of 25, set sail from Plymouth, England, in the Mayflower. After 57-days at sea, 41-family heads met off Cape Cod and drafted the Mayflower Compact, which established a democratic Bay colony to operate under “just and equal laws.” Then, after nearly starving that winter, they instituted a Thanksgiving banquet in late 1621. They weren’t “corn sufficient” until 1625, but the Puritans soon arrived, in 1630.
In the past, I’ve written about the roaring 1720s and the Mississippi Bubble (New Orleans land deals) and the roaring 1820s, inspired by the Erie Canal and the birth of railroads, but this column is long enough…
The Roaring 1920s gave us new technologies: Radios grew from a high-technology hobby to a common family companion. The same with cars, starting with hundreds of brands and ending in a Big-3. Silent movies flourished, then they began to talk. Jazz music was born, and the glorious Frigidaire replaced the icebox.
What’s next? Will future historians tell us that “AI” launched the roaring 2020s of 2024 to 2029? Maybe.
All content above represents the opinion of Gary Alexander of Navellier & Associates, Inc.
Also In This Issue
A Look Ahead by Louis Navellier
Continuing Deflation Could Fuel a 0.5% Fed Rate Cut Tomorrow
Income Mail by Bryan Perry
A Widening Bifurcation of Spending Trends
Growth Mail by Gary Alexander
Why Does the Market Rely So Much on Bogus BLS Job Counts?
Global Mail by Ivan Martchev
S&P 6600.21
Sector Spotlight by Jason Bodner
Honey Thoughts
View Full Archive
Read Past Issues Here
About The Author
Gary Alexander
SENIOR EDITOR
Gary Alexander has been Senior Writer at Navellier since 2009. He edits Navellier’s weekly Marketmail and writes a weekly Growth Mail column, in which he uses market history to support the case for growth stocks. For the previous 20-years before joining Navellier, he was Senior Executive Editor at InvestorPlace Media (formerly Phillips Publishing), where he worked with several leading investment analysts, including Louis Navellier (since 1997), helping launch Louis Navellier’s Blue Chip Growth and Global Growth newsletters.
Prior to that, Gary edited Wealth Magazine and Gold Newsletter and wrote various investment research reports for Jefferson Financial in New Orleans in the 1980s. He began his financial newsletter career with KCI Communications in 1980, where he served as consulting editor for Personal Finance newsletter while serving as general manager of KCI’s Alexandria House book division. Before that, he covered the economics beat for news magazines. All content of “Growth Mail” represents the opinion of Gary Alexander
Important Disclosures:
Although information in these reports has been obtained from and is based upon sources that Navellier believes to be reliable, Navellier does not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute Navellier’s judgment as of the date the report was created and are subject to change without notice. These reports are for informational purposes only and are not a solicitation for the purchase or sale of a security. Any decision to purchase securities mentioned in these reports must take into account existing public information on such securities or any registered prospectus.To the extent permitted by law, neither Navellier & Associates, Inc., nor any of its affiliates, agents, or service providers assumes any liability or responsibility nor owes any duty of care for any consequences of any person acting or refraining to act in reliance on the information contained in this communication or for any decision based on it.
Past performance is no indication of future results. Investment in securities involves significant risk and has the potential for partial or complete loss of funds invested. It should not be assumed that any securities recommendations made by Navellier. in the future will be profitable or equal the performance of securities made in this report. Dividend payments are not guaranteed. The amount of a dividend payment, if any, can vary over time and issuers may reduce dividends paid on securities in the event of a recession or adverse event affecting a specific industry or issuer.
None of the stock information, data, and company information presented herein constitutes a recommendation by Navellier or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Any specific securities identified and described do not represent all of the securities purchased, sold, or recommended for advisory clients. The holdings identified do not represent all of the securities purchased, sold, or recommended for advisory clients and the reader should not assume that investments in the securities identified and discussed were or will be profitable.
Information presented is general information that does not take into account your individual circumstances, financial situation, or needs, nor does it present a personalized recommendation to you. Individual stocks presented may not be suitable for every investor. Investment in securities involves significant risk and has the potential for partial or complete loss of funds invested. Investment in fixed income securities has the potential for the investment return and principal value of an investment to fluctuate so that an investor’s holdings, when redeemed, may be worth less than their original cost.
One cannot invest directly in an index. Index is unmanaged and index performance does not reflect deduction of fees, expenses, or taxes. Presentation of Index data does not reflect a belief by Navellier that any stock index constitutes an investment alternative to any Navellier equity strategy or is necessarily comparable to such strategies. Among the most important differences between the Indices and Navellier strategies are that the Navellier equity strategies may (1) incur material management fees, (2) concentrate its investments in relatively few stocks, industries, or sectors, (3) have significantly greater trading activity and related costs, and (4) be significantly more or less volatile than the Indices.
ETF Risk: We may invest in exchange traded funds (“ETFs”) and some of our investment strategies are generally fully invested in ETFs. Like traditional mutual funds, ETFs charge asset-based fees, but they generally do not charge initial sales charges or redemption fees and investors typically pay only customary brokerage fees to buy and sell ETF shares. The fees and costs charged by ETFs held in client accounts will not be deducted from the compensation the client pays Navellier. ETF prices can fluctuate up or down, and a client account could lose money investing in an ETF if the prices of the securities owned by the ETF go down. ETFs are subject to additional risks:
- ETF shares may trade above or below their net asset value;
- An active trading market for an ETF’s shares may not develop or be maintained;
- The value of an ETF may be more volatile than the underlying portfolio of securities the ETF is designed to track;
- The cost of owning shares of the ETF may exceed those a client would incur by directly investing in the underlying securities; and
- Trading of an ETF’s shares may be halted if the listing exchange’s officials deem it appropriate, the shares are delisted from the exchange, or the activation of market-wide “circuit breakers” (which are tied to large decreases in stock prices) halts stock trading generally.
Grader Disclosures: Investment in equity strategies involves substantial risk and has the potential for partial or complete loss of funds invested. The sample portfolio and any accompanying charts are for informational purposes only and are not to be construed as a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument and should not be relied upon as the sole factor in an investment making decision. As a matter of normal and important disclosures to you, as a potential investor, please consider the following: The performance presented is not based on any actual securities trading, portfolio, or accounts, and the reported performance of the A, B, C, D, and F portfolios (collectively the “model portfolios”) should be considered mere “paper” or pro forma performance results based on Navellier’s research.
Investors evaluating any of Navellier & Associates, Inc.’s, (or its affiliates’) Investment Products must not use any information presented here, including the performance figures of the model portfolios, in their evaluation of any Navellier Investment Products. Navellier Investment Products include the firm’s mutual funds and managed accounts. The model portfolios, charts, and other information presented do not represent actual funded trades and are not actual funded portfolios. There are material differences between Navellier Investment Products’ portfolios and the model portfolios, research, and performance figures presented here. The model portfolios and the research results (1) may contain stocks or ETFs that are illiquid and difficult to trade; (2) may contain stock or ETF holdings materially different from actual funded Navellier Investment Product portfolios; (3) include the reinvestment of all dividends and other earnings, estimated trading costs, commissions, or management fees; and, (4) may not reflect prices obtained in an actual funded Navellier Investment Product portfolio. For these and other reasons, the reported performances of model portfolios do not reflect the performance results of Navellier’s actually funded and traded Investment Products. In most cases, Navellier’s Investment Products have materially lower performance results than the performances of the model portfolios presented.
This report contains statements that are, or may be considered to be, forward-looking statements. All statements that are not historical facts, including statements about our beliefs or expectations, are “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of The U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements may be identified by such forward-looking terminology as “expect,” “estimate,” “plan,” “intend,” “believe,” “anticipate,” “may,” “will,” “should,” “could,” “continue,” “project,” or similar statements or variations of such terms. Our forward-looking statements are based on a series of expectations, assumptions, and projections, are not guarantees of future results or performance, and involve substantial risks and uncertainty as described in Form ADV Part 2A of our filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), which is available at www.adviserinfo.sec.gov or by requesting a copy by emailing info@navellier.com. All of our forward-looking statements are as of the date of this report only. We can give no assurance that such expectations or forward-looking statements will prove to be correct. Actual results may differ materially. You are urged to carefully consider all such factors.
FEDERAL TAX ADVICE DISCLAIMER: As required by U.S. Treasury Regulations, you are informed that, to the extent this presentation includes any federal tax advice, the presentation is not written by Navellier to be used, and cannot be used, for the purpose of avoiding federal tax penalties. Navellier does not advise on any income tax requirements or issues. Use of any information presented by Navellier is for general information only and does not represent tax advice either express or implied. You are encouraged to seek professional tax advice for income tax questions and assistance.
IMPORTANT NEWSLETTER DISCLOSURE:The hypothetical performance results for investment newsletters that are authored or edited by Louis Navellier, including Louis Navellier’s Growth Investor, Louis Navellier’s Breakthrough Stocks, Louis Navellier’s Accelerated Profits, and Louis Navellier’s Platinum Club, are not based on any actual securities trading, portfolio, or accounts, and the newsletters’ reported hypothetical performances should be considered mere “paper” or proforma hypothetical performance results and are not actual performance of real world trades. Navellier & Associates, Inc. does not have any relation to or affiliation with the owner of these newsletters. There are material differences between Navellier Investment Products’ portfolios and the InvestorPlace Media, LLC newsletter portfolios authored by Louis Navellier. The InvestorPlace Media, LLC newsletters contain hypothetical performance that do not include transaction costs, advisory fees, or other fees a client might incur if actual investments and trades were being made by an investor. As a result, newsletter performance should not be used to evaluate Navellier Investment services which are separate and different from the newsletters. The owner of the newsletters is InvestorPlace Media, LLC and any questions concerning the newsletters, including any newsletter advertising or hypothetical Newsletter performance claims, (which are calculated solely by Investor Place Media and not Navellier) should be referred to InvestorPlace Media, LLC at (800) 718-8289.
Please note that Navellier & Associates and the Navellier Private Client Group are managed completely independent of the newsletters owned and published by InvestorPlace Media, LLC and written and edited by Louis Navellier, and investment performance of the newsletters should in no way be considered indicative of potential future investment performance for any Navellier & Associates separately managed account portfolio. Potential investors should consult with their financial advisor before investing in any Navellier Investment Product.
Navellier claims compliance with Global Investment Performance Standards (GIPS). To receive a complete list and descriptions of Navellier’s composites and/or a presentation that adheres to the GIPS standards, please contact Navellier or click here. It should not be assumed that any securities recommendations made by Navellier & Associates, Inc. in the future will be profitable or equal the performance of securities made in this report.
FactSet Disclosure: Navellier does not independently calculate the statistical information included in the attached report. The calculation and the information are provided by FactSet, a company not related to Navellier. Although information contained in the report has been obtained from FactSet and is based on sources Navellier believes to be reliable, Navellier does not guarantee its accuracy, and it may be incomplete or condensed. The report and the related FactSet sourced information are provided on an “as is” basis. The user assumes the entire risk of any use made of this information. Investors should consider the report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. The report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of a security. FactSet sourced information is the exclusive property of FactSet. Without prior written permission of FactSet, this information may not be reproduced, disseminated or used to create any financial products. All indices are unmanaged and performance of the indices include reinvestment of dividends and interest income, unless otherwise noted, are not illustrative of any particular investment and an investment cannot be made in any index. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.