by Bryan Perry

June 25, 2024

The financial media and some Wall Street gurus are banging a drum to say that the AI trade is overpriced – or priced way ahead of expectations – as to what this once in a lifetime secular theme will deliver to investors, ever since the AI-led tech rally hit the “pause” button last week. As the month of June got underway, bond yields fell on softer inflation data, and mega-cap AI growth stocks surged to new highs, admittedly reaching overbought technical levels that have given way to some short-term profit taking.

This recent round of consolidation in the leading AI names is highly constructive for new buyers. Big parabolic moves higher leave huge gaps underneath that result in more volatile pullbacks that create doubt in the minds of investors about the longevity of a stock’s uptrend. Quite frankly, I am pleased to see how the top 10 AI stocks have been trading in the past week, giving back some of the FOMO-like moves that were fueled by massive options trading and leverage. Hot growth stocks take the stairway up to new highs, then take the elevator down to rising support trend-lines. The moves up and down can be stunning.

The AI trade is fueling what is arguably one of the most hated stock rallies of all time – hated by some fund managers, that is, because they simply have not embraced what is happening within the greatest capital spending cycle in history. Some famous Wall Street Chief Investment Officers (CIOs) called for a recession in 2024, and like the Pied Piper, they scared over $6 trillion into money markets and short-term instruments, while the AI-rich NASDAQ has rallied in the past nine months, fueled by eye-popping forecasts for capital spending in AI-driven applications, equipment, data centers, networks and all types of devices.

For market veterans that respect technical analysis, the recent price action has been volatile enough to shake out a lot of hot and leveraged trading money while allowing professional fund managers and retail investors an opportunity to initiate and add to positions in top-rated AI stocks at attractive entry points.

NASDAQ QQQ ETF Chart 1

Graphs are for illustrative and discussion purposes only. Please read important disclosures at the end of this commentary.

From the chart above, I would infer that there is potential for another 6% downside that would test the 50-day moving average (orange line). From there, the heart of earnings season is just one month away, and that is sure to bring its own set of post-July 4th market fireworks, making the present period of consolidation an appealing time to pick up some great AI stocks on sizeable dips

Looking at this nine-month chart, we can see where this rally kicked into high gear when traders assumed that 3-4 future Fed rate cuts were in the cards. This 33% rally in the S&P 500 paused during the April timeframe, when inflation data came in hotter-than-forecast. From the chart below, the yield on the 10-year Treasury gapped to 4.75% from 4.20% during the same time, when the S&P 500 gave back 7.7%.

Treasury Note Chart 1

Graphs are for illustrative and discussion purposes only. Please read important disclosures at the end of this commentary.

During this garden variety pullback, there were some key developer conferences that fortified the message the AI bulls have been shouting from the hilltops – this is the biggest advance in technology of all time. The Alphabet I/O Conference held May 14, the NVIDIA GTC Conference held the week of May 22, the Microsoft Build Conference held May 24-25, and Apple’s Worldwide Developers Conference from June 10-14 collectively planted the flag for the next leg up for the biggest AI-centric stocks.

When the bond market regained its footing on the back of several softer-than-forecasted economic reports, coupled with the first interest rate cuts coming from the Bank of Canada and the European Central Bank, it was a green light for stock investors, so the rally in mega-cap AI stocks was back on, following a healthy month of consolidation, taking the NASDAQ and S&P 500 to new all-time highs.

Last week saw some very constructive technical backing-and-filling for best-of-breed AI stocks that fall into several categories – Graphics Processing Units (GPUs), Application Programming Interfaces (APIs), generative AI software, memory storage, hard drives, liquid cooled servers and end user products that are just now on the cusp of a global refresh cycle for PCs and wireless devices to include AI functionality.

It all starts with AI infrastructure, also called the AI stack, which refers to the integrated hardware and software environment that supports artificial intelligence and machine learning (ML) workloads. The AI stack includes software, hardware, and networks that are essential to build and deploy AI-powered applications. There are six basic components of artificial intelligence infrastructure that investors need to consider when researching which stocks to invest in to get the fullest exposure to the AI revolution:

  • Computational power
  • Networking and connectivity frameworks
  • Data handling and storage solutions
  • Data processing frameworks
  • Security and compliance
  • Machine learning operations (MLOps)

Source: AI Infrastructure: a comprehensive guide to building your AI stack | Future Processing (future-processing com).

To understand the future of demand for AI, a recent survey stated that 83% of companies polled claim that using AI in their business is a top priority. This widespread commitment to applying AI by U.S. and global companies continues to demonstrate the potential size of the market being created over the next 3-5 years, making for what should be a fine time to accumulate portfolios in a very healthy manner.

AI PIE Chart 1

Graphs are for illustrative and discussion purposes only. Please read important disclosures at the end of this commentary.

Stock picking for AI winners is key to staying on top of how best to maximize one’s dollars invested into the whole AI experience. There are likely to be a few lead changes in this horse race over the next few years. The Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (QQQ) does a splendid job of positioning a few of the best of breed AI stocks within their Top 10 Holdings, accounting for 46% of the fund’s total weighting. There are also about a dozen ETFs with a 100% focus on AI which offer a nice blend of exposure to all the sub-sectors.

Navellier & Associates owns Nvidia Corp (NVDA), Microsoft Corp (MSFT), Alphabet Inc. Class A (GOOGL), and some accounts own Apple Computer (AAPL), in managed accounts.  Bryan Perry personally owns Nvidia Corp (NVDA), Microsoft Corp (MSFT), and Alphabet Inc. Class A (GOOGL), but does not own Apple Computer (AAPL). 

All content above represents the opinion of Bryan Perry of Navellier & Associates, Inc.

Please see important disclosures below.

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About The Author

Bryan Perry

Bryan Perry
SENIOR DIRECTOR

Bryan Perry is a Senior Director with Navellier Private Client Group, advising and facilitating high net worth investors in the pursuit of their financial goals.

Bryan’s financial services career spanning the past three decades includes over 20 years of wealth management experience with Wall Street firms that include Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers and Paine Webber, working with both retail and institutional clients. Bryan earned a B.A. in Political Science from Virginia Polytechnic Institute & State University and currently holds a Series 65 license. All content of “Income Mail” represents the opinion of Bryan Perry

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