by Louis Navellier
March 17, 2026
When Israel hit some crude oil-tanks in Iran, the fear of Iran’s oil infrastructure being targeted spread. The main fear is Middle-Eastern oil may not immediately come back online after the fighting stops.
The G-7 finance ministers met last week to discuss releasing more crude oil reserves, saying they “stand ready” to release crude oil reserves if necessary. Also, the Trump administration was not happy with the IDF strike on crude oil tanks, so hopefully there will be no more attacks on Iran’s oil infrastructure.
China, India, Japan, South Korea and Europe are big oil importers, sensitive to oil price shocks, but President Trump said on Truth Social, “Short term oil prices will drop rapidly when the destruction of the Iranian nuclear threat is over…a small price to pay for U.S., and World Safety and Peace.”
Crude oil prices staged a brief but dramatic reversal after President Trump said Israel and the U.S. are making significant progress in the war on Iran and could end the conflict “very soon.” Clearly, the key to getting crude oil prices to retreat significantly is to reopen the Strait of Hormuz after Iran’s missile and drone facilities are destroyed. Last Tuesday, U.S. Central Command said U.S. forces eliminated 16 of Iran’s mine-laying ships near the Strait. The Wall Street Journal reported India is in active talks with Iran to allow at least 23-tankers through the strait. Then, the Financial Times reported France and Italy have opened talks with Iran to negotiate a deal for safe passage of their ships through the Strait of Hormuz.
In the meantime, the U.S. has removed all sanctions on Russian crude oil to help India and other nations.
The current perception is the hardliners in Iran remain in charge, since the Ayatollah’s son, Mojtaba Khamenei, was named new Supreme Leader, so no quick Iranian surrender is anticipated. However, Mojtaba Khamenei has spent a lot of time in London, so he may not be as hard-line as other candidates. Furthermore, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said Khamenei “is wounded and likely disfigured.” It is rumored he was gravely injured in an airstrike and may have lost a leg, so he is unlikely to be seen in public.
In an official statement last Thursday – recited on Iranian television – the new Ayatollah said the Strait of Hormuz must remain closed, and Iran will continue targeting U.S. bases across the Gulf area. It will be interesting to see if Iran wants to continue fighting with a weak, hobbled leader, since it seems futile, and it looks like the regional commanders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps are running Iran now.
Iran’s latest tactic is to attack ships and some of its closest neighbors, like Bahrain, Oman and the United Arab Emirates. On Iranian state television, Ali Fadavi, deputy commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, said the U.S. and Israel “must consider the possibility they will be engaged in a long-term war of attrition which could destroy the entire American economy and the world economy.”
Goldman Sachs warned investors of oil prices of $150 per-barrel (up from its previous target of $120 per-barrel earlier last week), especially if the conflict persists. I distrust the most fearful predictions, as the media runs on Google Analytics, many firms try to get more “hits” by making ever more outrageous predictions, so there are articles about $200 per-barrel out there. In the meantime, natural gas-related fertilizer prices have soared, so higher food prices, as well as an impending fear of possible food shortages, are anticipated in the upcoming months, due mostly to shipping problems through the Strait of Hormuz.
Economist Ed Yardeni has raised the odds of a market meltdown for the rest of the year to 35%, up from 20%. Yardeni also slashed his odds of a melt-up – his term for a rally driven more by investor enthusiasm than underlying fundamentals – to just 5% from a previous 20%. Specifically, Yardeni said, “If the oil shock persists, the Fed’s dual mandate would be stuck between the increasing risk of higher inflation and rising unemployment.” Obviously, I highly respect Ed Yardeni, and I believe he is stating the obvious, so the good news is Ed Yardeni has also assigned an 85% chance of a return to a “Roaring 2020s” market.
The U.S. dollar remains strong, which should help U.S. financial markets. Since gold is priced in U.S. dollars, a strong dollar helps gold, helping gold to reemerge as an oasis for nervous investors.
In the meantime, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam have implemented four-day work weeks due to high fuel prices and energy shortage fears. Indonesia, which subsidizes fuel prices for its citizens, is the most at risk, since it only has a 25-day supply of crude oil. Elsewhere, the International Energy Agency on Tuesday proposed the largest release of oil reserves in its history of 400-million barrels to alleviate the crude oil shortage due to the problems with the Strait of Hormuz. And Bloomberg reported on Wednesday a story saying Germany and Japan will be tapping their strategic crude oil reserves in the upcoming days.
Speaking of nervous investors, BlackRock has limited withdrawals from one of its flagship private credit funds after a surge of redemption requests. Specifically, the $26-billion HPS Corporate Lending Fund received $1.2-billion in withdrawal requests in the first-quarter and will allow $620-million in redemptions, representing 5% of the Fund. Morgan Stanley and Cliffwater LLC also limited redemptions from Cliffwater’s $33-billion Corporate Lending Fund after they were hit with 14% redemptions in the first-quarter. In a Wednesday letter to investors. Cliffwater said a payout of 7% was a “regulatory maximum.”
As the panic in private credit spreads, the Fed will face the dilemma of fixing this mess with further key interest rate cuts, so it will be interesting to see their official comments after tomorrow’s FOMC meeting.
Navellier & Associates; do not own BlackRock Inc (BLK), Morgan Stanley (MS), or Goldman Sacks (GS), in managed accounts. Louis Navellier does not personally own BlackRock Inc (BLK), Morgan Stanley (MS), or Goldman Sacks (GS).
All content above represents the opinion of Louis Navellier of Navellier & Associates, Inc.
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A Look Ahead by Louis Navellier
Will Oil Prices Reach the Stratosphere – or Retreat Soon (or Both)?
Income Mail by Bryan Perry
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Growth Mail by Gary Alexander
Ireland is Europe’s Strongest Economy – Happy Saint Patrick’s Day!
Global Mail by Ivan Martchev
The Longer the War, the Worse the Economic Impact
Sector Spotlight by Jason Bodner
Where There’s Market Smoke, There’s Fire – But Where’s the Fire?
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