2-10-26: Why I Think Gold Will Reach $10,000 by the End of 2029

by Louis Navellier

February 10, 2026

The recent consolidation in gold and silver prices is what I call a “pause that refreshes.” But if you look at the supply/demand fundamentals, gold has a lot of room to recover. For instance, if you try to buy gold bullion coins or bars, especially at Costco, they are frequently sold out of available supply, with a long waiting list. Also, silver and gold have separate fundamentals. Silver is much more sensitive to industrial demand, while gold is primarily a precious metal alternative currency in the foreign exchange market.

Both gold and silver rebounded impressively last Tuesday, and the catalyst might surprise you. France reported its consumer inflation rate falling to an annual pace of just 0.4%, their lowest rate in five years. Although lower energy prices are being blamed for this drop, a bigger force is their demographics. Specifically, France recently reported more deaths than births in 2025 for the first time since World War II, and the number of households in France is declining. Complicating matters further, France has been unable to assimilate minorities, which now account for approximately 20% of its population. As a result, France is expected to slip into a deflationary spiral as its population shrinks and new households decline.

This kind of deflationary spiral is already hitting China, which will enter its fifth-year of deflation in May. Globally, nearly all major economies (outside of Africa) are shrinking in population with fewer new households. Since no central banks are set up to cope with shrinking societies unable to service their government debt – like China, Japan, Britain and France – lower interest rates, quantitative easing (money printing) and possible currency devaluations are the only available options. This lack of sound currencies is why gold has been surging so much in the past year and why I expect $10,000-gold by the end of 2029.

Here are the only alternatives to gold, arranged in reverse order of merit, from the worst to the best:

Alternative #1: Cryptocurrencies. Due to poor performance in 2025 and accelerating losses in 2026, more crypto currency investors are apparently migrating to gold due to its superior performance, with a track record measured in centuries. Furthermore, many crypto ETFs have had hideous bid/ask spreads. The iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA) has lost 58% since last August and -38% since inception in 2024.

Alternative #2: The Chinese yuan. China has suffered hideous deflation since May 2022, and its interest rates are now below Japan’s. Due to shrinking households from the “one baby” policy enacted decades ago, China’s domestic economy is in a terminal decline. Furthermore, Chinese President Xi is worried he will be overthrown, which is why he has curtailed his travel schedule, and why he constantly purges the leadership in China’s military. What a mess! The only way China can possibly stop a deflationary spiral is via a currency devaluation, which it did before it joined the World Trade Organization (WTO).

Alternative #3: The Japanese yen. The good news is Japan has the highest birth rate in Asia. The bad news is their birth rate is still not high enough to offset an acute population decline and Japan is not open to immigration. As a result, Japan is also losing households, which is making paying off its government debt next to impossible. Japan’s new Prime Minister is spending more money, which in turn is hindering the Bank of Japan, which is expected to increasingly print money via quantitative easing to make ends meet. The net result will continue to be ultra-low interest rates and a depreciating Japanese yen.

Alternative #4: The British pound. The good news is Britain used to assimilate immigrants to help boost its population and productivity. The bad news is Britain has been overrun by too many immigrants with no intention of assimilating or becoming British. Angry immigrants are a substantial majority in London and other major cities, and Britain is increasingly becoming a welfare state, where approximately half of the nation’s residents must be subsidized to pay their electric bills. Additionally, Britain’s quest to reach NetZero carbon emissions by 2050 (by shunning fossil fuels) has caused a manufacturing exodus.

Complicating matters further, Prime Minister Keir Starmer chased wealthy Britons out of the country to Guernsey, Jersey and other offshore tax shelters, where wealthy British have traditionally created asset protection trusts. As a result, there is a government budget shortfall, so middle-class Britons have to pay higher taxes due to the capital flight Starmer has sparked. Britain also has a problem with shrinking households due to an aging society, which is increasingly unable to pay any additional taxes. A “Clash of Civilizations” is unfolding in Britian. The Bank of England has no other long-term choice than to slash key interest rates and enact quantitative easing, which will undermine the value of the British pound.

Alternative #5: The euro. The European Union is expanding and now has 27-member countries, but Great Britain is not a member. They left the EU under “Brexit,” and more countries are expected to leave the EU in 2027. The reason for the EU exodus is the upcoming elections in 2027, and increasingly more anti-EU parties are expected to gain leadership roles, like the AfD Party in Germany. Brussels has become a bureaucratic octopus, systematically destroying many industries, like the farming and auto sectors.

Furthermore, Brussels is no longer just a monetary and trade union. Instead, the EU leaders in Brussels have evolved into a political machine, meddling in elections in Romania, France, Germany, Italy, Poland and other countries. EU courts are blocking popular politicians like Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni. Many EU countries have been unable to assimilate immigrants. Long-term, the euro will erode in value due to poor GDP growth and endless infighting, plus many countries with debt problems.

Alternative #6: The U.S. dollar. The U.S. is demographically superior to the other counties I discussed here, because America is younger, has a higher birthrate and better assimilates immigrants, who often then become great American entrepreneurs. There is no “Clash of Civilizations” in America. Although the U.S. has substantial government debt per capita (approximately $110,000), America also has substantial assets, such as natural gas, crude oil, gold and other commodities, as well as plenty of valuable land owned by the federal government serving as excellent collateral. Finally, U.S. GDP growth is now approaching a 5% annual rate, and we have 50-states naturally competing with each other, so I expect the dollar to rally, because the U.S. tends to have higher interest rates than other alternative countries.

Even so, gold is stronger than the U.S. dollar, which is likely to be the strongest currency in the years ahead. Since U.S. interest rates are anticipated to decline in the next few years, gold will likely become a more popular investment, so $10,000 per-ounce gold is a realistic target price by the end of the decade!

Where Are All the U.S. Jobs Going?

There was no payroll report on the first Friday of February due to the partial government shutdown last fall, but ADP reported private payrolls rising 22,000 in January, which was well below the economists’ consensus estimate of 45,000. ADP chief economist Nela Richardson said, “Job creation took a step back in 2025, with private employers adding 398,000-jobs, down from 771,000 in 2024.” ADP also said we lost 8,000-manufacturing jobs in January, so clearly the Fed should continue to cut rates.

Speaking of unemployment, there have been a lot of high-profile corporate layoffs announced recently, especially in programming jobs, due to AI. There is no doubt AI is now promoting layoffs, especially as warehouses become increasingly automated. This may explain why the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index recently hit a 12-year low, since job security remains uncertain. But due to the Fed’s unemployment mandate, I expect we will see at least three additional Fed rate cuts in 2026.

Last Thursday, the placement firm Challenger, Grey & Christmas announced a shocking total of 108,435-layoffs in January, up 118% compared to a year ago and a whopping 205% higher than the previous month. These corporate layoffs were the largest seen since 2009. Andy Challenger, workplace expert and chief revenue officer of the firm, said “Generally, we see a high number of job cuts in the first quarter, but this is a high total for January.” He then added, “It means most of these plans were set at the end of 2025, signaling employers are less-than-optimistic about the outlook for 2026.”  Clearly, to fulfill one of its dual mandates, the Fed needs to continue to cut key interest rates to stimulate a struggling job market.

(FYI, the January payroll report is now scheduled to be announced tomorrow, Wednesday, February 11^th).

When President Trump slammed the globalists at Davos, he essentially explained his administration’s way of prioritizing domestic GDP growth as a means to protect workers. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick also reiterated the Trump Administration’s domestic economic mandate as the best economic model for other countries to follow.

Speaking of global dominance, in the wake of the successful raid to capture Venezuelan President Maduro, the whole world is watching what President Trump will do next, especially after moving an aircraft carrier and multiple cruise missile destroyers near Iran. The recent explosion in an eight-story apartment building in the port city of Bandar Abbas raised speculation the commander of Iran’s navy, Commodore Alireza Tangsiri, was the target. The U.S. is demanding Iranian leaders cease development of nuclear weapons, so an attack may be imminent. In the meantime, the U.S. is talking to Iran and negotiating “seriously,” according to President Trump, so crude oil prices have started to decline.

Iran has said it is willing to discuss only its nuclear work. Obviously, if negotiations fail, the U.S. could conduct another military strike, which is why it has assembled a substantial Navy armada in the region. Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told Iranian state TV he thought the sides “can reach an agreed framework for future talks,” adding, “The subject of our talks is strictly nuclear, and we are not discussing any other issues with the Americans.” Obviously, Iran is expert in delaying talks, so the U.S. may attack key nuclear and military targets in Iran. It will be interesting to see if the U.S. loses patience with Iran.

The end effect of this policy is the U.S. remains an oasis for international investors have been fueling the buying pressure in gold and stocks. Although the global elites at the World Economic Forum despise President Trump, the U.S. dollar should continue to strengthen this year, since the U.S. has stronger GDP growth, higher real interest rates, a more positive outlook and military dominance. There is no doubt the Trump Administration’s shifting tariff polices may have impacted the trade deficit, but with the tariffs largely finalized, expect for South Korea, we should see more reliable trade data in upcoming months.

As far as GDP growth is concerned, the good news comes from the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) news of its manufacturing index surging to 52.6 in January, up from 47.9 in December. Since any reading over 50-signals a recovery, the manufacturing recession may be over, after being below 50 for 12-consecutive months!  The new orders component surged to 57.1 in January, up from 47.4 in December. Also, the production component surged to 55.9 in January, up from 50.7 in December. The backlog of orders rose to 51.6 in January, up from 45.8 in December. Nine of 17-industries reported an expansion in January. Overall, this is the best ISM manufacturing reading since 2022, supporting higher GDP growth!

The ISM service index remained at 53.8 in January, matching the same strong reading in December. The business activity component rose to 57.4 in January, up from 55.2 in December. Also notable is the new orders component slowing to 53.1 in January, down from a robust 56.5 in December, and fully 11 of the 16 industries surveyed reported an expansion in January, so the service sector remains healthy.

Productivity enhancements from AI are expected to help to continue to boost GDP growth. The data center boom continues and there is no doubt the AI revolution persists. Since Nvidia’s new Vera Rubin GPU is five-times faster and 10-times more energy efficient than its Blackwell GPU, you will hear about an AI replacement cycle in the upcoming years. In the meantime, prices for advanced semiconductor chips and memory remain firm, so AI has ensured profitability for companies like Nvidia, Micron, and Seagate Technology. In fact, Super Micro Computer (SMCI) announced fourth quarter sales last week, surging 123% to $12.7-billion, and earnings rising to $0.69 per-share. The company posted a whopping 22% sales surprise and a 41% earnings surprise, plus positive guidance. Since SMCI is one of Nvidia’s largest customers, I suspect Nvidia will also post a big surprise, despite high analyst expectations of 67% sales growth and 71% earnings growth. Despite concerns over OpenAI, the data-center boom is for real.

In summary, the U.S. continues to lead the world in domestic GDP growth, and the dollar is likely to firm up, with the Kevin Warsh nomination to be the next Fed Chairman. There is no doubt the Fed will be cutting key interest rates at least three-times this year due to persistent unemployment concerns. Hopefully, these key interest rate cuts will also boost consumer confidence in the upcoming months.

The U.S. is in the midst of an exciting economic boom, and 5% annual GDP growth should emerge from the estimated $20-trillion of onshoring of data centers, semiconductors, pharmaceutical and automotive industries creating an incredible domestic economic growth. The U.S. is energy-independent and has a natural advantage compared to competing countries around the world, since manufacturers can circumvent tariffs by on-shoring. Furthermore, the U.S. will also be helping Venezuela to boost its crude oil production, which should help to keep crude oil prices low for the foreseeable future.

In the meantime, I expect my growth stocks will appreciate at least 60% this year due to their forecasted earnings, plus the anticipation of more Fed rate cuts, so I recommend you remain invested in our stocks!

Navellier & Associates; own Nvidia Corp (NVDA), Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI), Micron (MU), and Seagate Technology Holdings PLC (STX), in managed accounts. Louis Navellier and his family own Nvidia Corp (NVDA), Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI), Micron (MU), and Seagate Technology Holdings PLC (STX), via a Navellier Managed account and Nvidia Corp (NVDA), in a personal account.