by Louis Navellier
November 18, 2025
The federal government shutdown is finally over, as eight Democratic Senators broke away from Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer to vote with the Republicans to reach the 60 necessary votes to reopen the federal government. This record-long shutdown was largely staged over cuts to healthcare subsidies. Ironically, healthcare reimbursement is NOT being changed, so in the end, Senate Schumer’s shutdown did not accomplish anything, and there is now call for a leadership change on the Democratic side.
Even though the deficit is still out of control, President Trump is now proposing to pay at least $2,000 to most Americans – allegedly from rising tariff revenues. On Truth Social, Trump said, “We are taking in Trillions of Dollars and will soon begin paying down our ENORMOUS DEBT, $37-Trillion,” he added “Record Investment in the USA, plants and factories going up all over the place. A dividend of at least $2,000 a person (not including high income people!) will be paid to everyone.” Obviously, this is a controversial proposal, but it may depend on a Supreme Court decision on tariffs, expected in January.
One of the outcomes of the Trump tariffs is that Italian pasta manufacturers are increasingly deciding to stop exports to the U.S. The Wall Street Journal reported that Italy’s biggest pasta exporters say that tariffs and anti-dumping duties totaling 107% on their pasta brands will make doing business in America too costly. The Commerce Department announced a 92% anti-dumping duty on pasta made in Italy by the 13-companies that export the bulk of pasta from Italy, in addition to the 15% tariff on all Italian exports.
Another interesting development is that two senior BBC executives resigned over claims that a documentary had misleadingly edited footage of President Trump’s speech before the January 6th riot. Specifically, the BBC ran a program (“Panorama”) just a week before the 2024 U.S. election. The footage spliced together two parts of the president’s remarks on January 6th. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt accused the BBC of being ‘purposefully dishonest’ over its depiction of the day’s events.
Gavin Newsom for President? (Not Likely)
California Governor, Gavin Newsom met with foreign leaders at the current (November 6-21) COP 30 climate conference in Brazil. Regarding the goal to get to Net Zero emissions, Newsom said, “The United States of America is as dumb as we want to be on this topic, but the State of California is not… so we are going to assert ourselves, and we are going to lean in, and we are going to compete in this space.”
At an event hosted by Germany, Newsom said, “California distinguishes itself from the current occupant of the White House in Washington, DC,” adding that, “California is a stable and reliable partner.” In his sharpest barb yet against Trump, Newsom said, “Trump is temporary, and I hope folks around the globe remember that,” then he added a few more barbs against the President: “He is reckless, he’s chaotic, mercurial and he’s transactional, but people have to stand up. You stand up to a bully.”
Obviously, Gavin Newsom is running for President in 2028, but I am not sure that an appeal for Net Zero climate goals will propel him to victory, since the U.S. needs to build energy-intensive data-centers that will be operational by 2028. Technology companies – many based in Newsom’s California – are leading the AI and data-center boom, but Governor Gavin Newsom perhaps forgot that California companies are causing energy demand and fossil fuels (mostly natural gas) to soar, in order to power their data-centers.
The U.S. Economy is Still the Leading “Oasis” of the World
Bloomberg had a great article last week about how deflation is enveloping the Chinese economy. Since the first half of 2023, Chinese home prices in major cities have fallen 27%. The cost of their BYD cars are off by 27%; Greatwall wine has fallen 29%; potatoes have fallen 17%; beef shanks and eggs have fallen 14%, and rents in major cities have fallen by 9%. When prices are in a seemingly perpetual free-fall like this, consumers tend to postpone their purchases, which in turn curtails economic growth.
Complicating matters further, China increasingly has “zombie” companies that cannot pay off their debt. This deflationary spiral is expected to end in a currency devaluation – which could boost some prices.
My favorite economist, Ed Yardini, pointed out that China’s GDP deflator has been down for 10-straight quarters, their worst decline since 1993. Ed pointed out that this “increases the odds that China will share its deflation troubles with a global economy that’s staggering out of 2025 and worried about what 2026 will bring.”
In other words, China’s deflationary spiral may envelop much of the world in 2026. This is one reason I expect to see a global interest rate collapse. The other reason is that Asia and Northern Europe are losing households from a demographic decline, making it very hard to grow when your population is getting older and shrinking!
India may be heading toward deflation, too. Inflation in the world’s most populous nation declined to 0.25% in October, the lowest rate since data collection commenced back in 2012. Economists are concerned about falling vegetable prices, plus the continuing impact of goods-and-services tax reforms. The Indian central bank (RBI) has a 4% inflation target, so more key rate cuts are expected – as long as inflation remains below the RBI’s target. I should add that India’s birth rate has fallen dramatically as they risk following other Western nations with an aging demographic trend that might squelch growth in the upcoming years.
In Europe, Britain is preparing to raise taxes for the second time under Prime Minister Keir Starmer. The Wall Street Journal reported that Britain’s Treasury chief, Rachel Reeves, is expected to announce a tax hit of 30-billion pounds (around $39-billion), about 1% of Britain’s annual economic output. This tax increase is aimed at narrowing Britain’s budget deficit, which ended 2024 at 5.7% of GDP.
Due to wealthy British taxpayers fleeing Britain, and their ongoing immigration problems, Starmer may have to declare a new election in 2026, if his support dwindles. In the meantime, I expect to see the British pound erode relative to the U.S. dollar, mainly due to Britain’s increasing domestic challenges.
As we get closer to Thanksgiving, the stock market should naturally rally, since the holidays are a happy time of year. Furthermore, the negative articles about the stock market are getting harder to defend in the wake of the strongest earnings in four-years, plus 4% GDP growth. The Wall Street Journal had an article about the wealth effect boosting consumer confidence in stocks. Karen Dynan, a Harvard professor and former chief economist at the Treasury Department said, “The stock market gains are providing an important boost to the economy.” As a result, we stock investors should enjoy this holiday season!
All content above represents the opinion of Louis Navellier of Navellier & Associates, Inc.
Also In This Issue
A Look Ahead by Louis Navellier
The Government Shutdown Ends: What’s Next – More Spending?
Income Mail by Bryan Perry
Examining the “Space Race” Investment Theme For 2026
Growth Mail by Gary Alexander
Business Magazines Are Worth the Cost – As Contrarian Indicators
Global Mail by Ivan Martchev
Rotation Alone Does Not Explain Recent Market Volatility
Sector Spotlight by Jason Bodner
Turn Up the Quiet…In Order to Hear the Market’s Heartbeat
View Full Archive
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Louis Navellier
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Louis Navellier is Founder, Chairman of the Board, Chief Investment Officer and Chief Compliance Officer of Navellier & Associates, Inc., located in Reno, Nevada. With decades of experience translating what had been purely academic techniques into real market applications, he believes that disciplined, quantitative analysis can select stocks that will significantly outperform the overall market. All content in this “A Look Ahead” section of Market Mail represents the opinion of Louis Navellier of Navellier & Associates, Inc.
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