by Jason Bodner
October 7, 2025
Strange but true: on Venus, a single day – the time it takes Venus to rotate on its own axis – lasts longer than a Venusian year, a trip around the sun. Venus spins so slowly, and in the opposite direction of most planets, that its sunrise seems almost stubborn. Time stretches out there. That quirk is a handy reminder for investors: The calendar can say one thing while reality happens in a very different rhythmic pattern.
Like planets, markets tend to march to their own beat, starting with the Big Money Index (BMI).
On the previous Friday (September 26), the Big Money Index sat at 72.2%. Last Friday, it was 68.9%.
Graphs are for illustrative and discussion purposes only. Please read important disclosures at the end of this commentary.
If this headline (“BMI Falling”) concerns you, don’t be too concerned. The BMI is a flow gauge, not a fear gauge. It is easing because buying has slowed, not because sellers have headed for the exits.
Graphs are for illustrative and discussion purposes only. Please read important disclosures at the end of this commentary.
Given how uncharacteristically strong August and September were, a moderation in buying appetite is exactly what you would expect now. Seasonality still matters, even when the tape seems sizzling-hot.
Since 1990, September has been the market’s softest month. Only 16 of the last 35 Septembers (45.7%) have finished positive for the Dow and 48.6% (17 of 35) for the S&P 500. November sits at the other end of the spectrum with 26 of 35 Novembers (74.3%) being positive. This year, August and September bucked the pattern, which is bullish. Now, we ask the obvious question: What about October?
Graphs are for illustrative and discussion purposes only. Please read important disclosures at the end of this commentary.
October is historically constructive, green roughly 61% of the time. The catch is the front-half can be whippy. The back-half, into year-end and beyond, tends to carry the baton. This lines-up with what my model is seeing: The underlying weather looks fine. We’re witnessing slower inflows, not stress; digestion, not distress, and November and December are the strongest months historically speaking.
Graphs are for illustrative and discussion purposes only. Please read important disclosures at the end of this commentary.
Sector leadership backs that up. Technology and Industrials remain my top two-ranked groups last week, with Discretionary sitting mid-pack at sixth. That trio is exactly what you would want to see in a bull-market environment. Technology underpins nearly everything we build or buy, and Industrials tie into real-world capacity and infrastructure. Discretionary tells you the consumer still has gas in the tank.
Graphs are for illustrative and discussion purposes only. Please read important disclosures at the end of this commentary.
Ten of eleven sector ETFs are trading at or near highs. The lone laggard now is Staples (charted, below).
Graphs are for illustrative and discussion purposes only. Please read important disclosures at the end of this commentary.
Cash flows since September 1st tilt in the same direction. Technology, Healthcare, Industrials, Materials, and Financials captured 82.4% of September inflows. That is not defensive fear, that is a growth strike zone.
Graphs are for illustrative and discussion purposes only. Please read important disclosures at the end of this commentary.
Equally important, 82.5% of equity inflows went into small and mid-caps. When capital skews down the market-cap ladder, managers are telling you they’re positioned for expansion, not caution.
Graphs are for illustrative and discussion purposes only. Please read important disclosures at the end of this commentary.
Zoom in further and the following stock list is a who’s who of technology-beneficiaries. Over the past two-weeks the highest-ranked names seeing fresh inflows, charted below, include ACM Research, Micron Technology, Camtek, Seagate, NVIDIA, Electronic Arts, AppLovin, KLA, Innodata, and Lam Research.
Those are not safety-trades. Those are growth-engines with torque.
(Disclosure: I hold NVDA, LAC, LRCX, APP, and CAMT in managed accounts or model portfolios).
Now layer on the macro-tailwinds. Rates are falling, and more cuts are likely. Corporate taxes are lower, which fattens margins on the other side of the income statement. Meanwhile the United States has effectively planted a flag in strategic technology and AI. You can see it in public support for domestic chip capacity, in partnerships like Intel’s work with AMD, and in the massive investment pipelines announced by NVIDIA and others. Policy, cost of capital, and capital spending are all pointing in the same direction.
(Disclosure: I hold Intel (INTC), AMD and NVDA in managed accounts or model portfolios).
So yes, the BMI slipped just over three-points, from 72.2% to 68.9%. But here’s the important nuance in the numbers: This change reflects a cooling in Big Money buy signals rather than a swell in sell signals. That difference is huge. When buying slows after a powerful run, you often get orderly back-and-fill, not structural damage. Pullbacks that come from digestion often precede future breakouts on new fuel.
Seasonality supports the same conclusion. If the first two-weeks of October deliver some chop, that is part of the script, not the surprise. The back-half of October often improves, and the future brightens further going into November and December, historically the market’s sweetest spot. Add the current sector posture (growth on top, safety at the bottom) and the message remains: The trend is intact.
What would change my mind? A decisive rotation into Staples and Utilities while Technology, Discretionary, and Industrials bleed, or a meaningful rise in equity outflows accompanied by expanding new lows, or a Fed policy shock that tightens liquidity. However, that is not the tape we see now. Instead, we have 10 of the 11 S&P sectors at or near-highs, inflows concentrated in the engines of growth, and small and mid-caps receiving the majority share. That is the opposite of fear.
Here is how I’m translating theory into action. First, respect the chop. If we get early October weakness, I plan to buy in tranches rather than all at once. Second, favor the leaders: semiconductors, AI infrastructure, quality-software, and industrial enablers tied to capacity, power, and automation. Third, keep some powder dry for opportunistic adds if the BMI drops suddenly, on higher volume. In markets, patience is a position.
A quick note on psychology, because the crowd’s madness matters just as much as the math. Pullbacks never feel like an opportunity in the moment. They feel like despair setting in. But emotion is a lagging indicator. The flows point to risk-on. The sectors point to growth. The seasonals point to strength after a little choppy-weather. If you can hold that frame of mind, you can act when others hesitate.
Which brings me back to Venus, where a day that out-lasts a year sounds wrong, until you accept that each planet has its own time-table. The market’s timetable has seemed a bit odd, too: strong when history said weak, pausing now when the headlines want drama. But I’m fine with that.
Here’s a Stoic reminder that fits: “No great thing is created suddenly” – (Epictetus). In other words, even on a planet where a day out-runs a year, progress is still happening: slow, steady, and right on time.
Navellier & Associates Inc.; own NVIDIA, AppLovin, KLA, Innodata, and Lam Research in managed accounts. We do not own ACM Research, Micron Technology, Camtek, Seagate, or Electronic Arts, in managed accounts. Jason Bodner personally owns Camtek, NVIDIA, AppLovin, KLA, and Lam Research, but does not personally own ACM Research, Micron Technology, Seagate, Electronic Arts, or Innodata.
All content above represents the opinion of Jason Bodner of Navellier & Associates, Inc.
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Sector Spotlight by Jason Bodner
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Jason Bodner
MARKETMAIL EDITOR FOR SECTOR SPOTLIGHT
Jason Bodner writes Sector Spotlight in the weekly Marketmail publication and has authored several white papers for the company. He is also Co-Founder of Macro Analytics for Professionals which produces proprietary equity accumulation and distribution research for its clients. Previously, Mr. Bodner served as Director of European Equity Derivatives for Cantor Fitzgerald Europe in London, then moved to the role of Head of Equity Derivatives North America for the same company in New York. He also served as S.V.P. Equity Derivatives for Jefferies, LLC. He received a B.S. in business administration in 1996, with honors, from Skidmore College as a member of the Periclean Honors Society. All content of “Sector Spotlight” represents the opinion of Jason Bodner
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