by Ivan Martchev
October 28, 2025
I’ve been writing about the power of presidential tweets over the last two-weeks. While technically not a tweet, there was a move similar in magnitude to a Wednesday “tweet storm” that moved the S&P 500 36-points down in one-minute. It had to do with a news release discussing plans by the Trump administration to withhold critical software for numerous Chinese products, without which they would be unable to operate. This was apparently the Trump team’s response to China’s rare-earth metals restrictions.
Note that the Trump administration has not actually issued any ban – which is, in effect, negotiating on live TV in the middle of a market trading day – but by the next day, Thursday, it became clear that the Xi Jinping meeting was still on for Thursday this week, which provided a small boost to stock prices.
One would think that, until that meeting actually happens on Thursday, there would be no escalation on trade issues. If the news after the meeting with the Chinese is “we resolved our differences,” the stock market would likely rise. If the trade war escalates, it is likely the stock market will come under pressure.
If it were not for this sort of trade war noise going on, share prices would likely be rising further, as we are entering the seasonally strongest part of the year. With plenty of big technology companies reporting this week – and those reports expected to be positive – further gains are likely. The VIX intermediate term buy signal I discussed last week delivered on its promise and further gains are likely.
Primarily, there are two main policy decisions that can push the stock market in one direction or the other. One comes from Jerome Powell, and the other comes from Donald Trump – but Fed Chair Powell does not tweet in the middle of the trading day, while President Trump does, so perhaps all our commentary from now on must include the caveat: “If President Trump does not override this situation with a tweet,”
The Rate of U.S. Inflation is Gradually Rising Again
Graphs are for illustrative and discussion purposes only. Please read important disclosures at the end of this commentary.
The news that pushed the S&P 500 to a fresh all-time high is that inflation rose by 3% year-over-year. As this chart shows, the inflation rate has been steadily climbing since April, when it was 2.3%. The latest inflation rate was higher, but not high enough to stop the Fed from cutting rates this week. Still, some forecasters think the inflation rate is headed to 3.5% by the end of the year as tariffs begin to slowly creep into prices. If that happens, it would be much harder for the Fed to keep on cutting rates in 2026.
The Fed is also flying blind on the job front, as the government shutdown has delayed any new job numbers. Since we know the Fed is worried about the job market, as per their statements of late, I think they may cut the Fed funds rate tomorrow, but they may wait to check the data that comes out after the government shutdown ends before deciding to make another rate cut this year. If the Fed cuts rates this week and the Chinese trade meeting goes without negative headlines, we are likely to see further gains, as October ends this week, which is a catalyst for fund managers to mark up prices at the end of the month.
Paul Tudor Jones: A Blast from the Past
I saw Paul Tudor Jones (PTJ) on TV a couple of weeks ago, and he made the point repeatedly that the market feels like October 1999, drawing parallels between the dot-com mania and the current AI boom.
True, the NASDAQ 100 Index does trade with a persistent upside bias: Every sharp sell-off has been met with aggressive buying – which we experienced on October 10, a one-day wonder similar to what we experienced at the end of July and the first day of August, which was more like a two-day wonder.
In both cases, the sharper the sell-off the faster traders bought into it. (Also, we see that President Trump is trying to help the market recover with his tweets – both on the way-down and the way-up).
Graphs are for illustrative and discussion purposes only. Please read important disclosures at the end of this commentary.
Regarding the Paul Tudor Jones interview and 1999, if late 2025 is to be like October 1999, the NASDAQ 100 needs to double by March (as NASDAQ did in just five-months: See chart above). Also, there is a big difference in the nature of the rising stocks now and then. While there are extreme levels of spending on AI data-centers, much of it is financed by surging cash flows at major technology companies (mainly the Mag 7).
A lot of the spending in 1999-2000 used borrowed money to build out fiber-optic networks and buy telecom equipment. That, in and of itself, is a major difference, but I have to say that it does bother me to see the circularity of OpenAI’s recent deals. First, Nvidia will invest $100-billion in OpenAI in tranches, so that OpenAI can have money to buy huge amounts of GPUs from Nvidia for data-centers. Then AMD gives OpenAI a massive amount of warrants. Ultimately OpenAI can own up to 10% of AMD, so that OpenAI also uses large amounts of AMD GPUs. OpenAI is also doing large deals with Broadcom for custom made GPUs as well as huge contracts with data-center providers like Oracle.
It is understandable that OpenAI wants to diversify its suppliers and fund its explosive growth. It is a software company with a maximum of $15-billion in forecasted revenues at the end of 2025, while private market cap value is $500-billion and rising. Basically, they are spending money they don’t have, other people’s money, in order to fund the growth of what is the fastest growing software company of all time.
I like their products, and I think they will succeed, but I sure hope PTJ is wrong and the NASDAQ 100 does not double in the next five-months, as it did after October 1999, since the consequences would be nasty.
Navellier & Associates; own Nvidia Corp (NVDA), Broadcom Inc. and Oracle (ORCL), in managed accounts. A few accounts own Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) per client request. Ivan Martchev does not personally own Nvidia Corp (NVDA), Broadcom Inc. Oracle (ORCL), or Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD).
All content above represents the opinion of Ivan Martchev of Navellier & Associates, Inc.
Also In This Issue
A Look Ahead by Louis Navellier
Data Center Stocks Dominate the Initial Earnings Reports
Income Mail by Bryan Perry
The Dangerous Long Game Dilemma with China
Growth Mail by Gary Alexander
Happy 96th Birthday, “Black Tuesday” – Please Don’t Come Back!
Global Mail by Ivan Martchev
Market Sets New Highs, After No “Trillion Dollar Tweets”
Sector Spotlight by Jason Bodner
Is This an “Ominous Silence – or “The Pause That Refreshes?”
View Full Archive
Read Past Issues Here
Ivan Martchev
INVESTMENT STRATEGIST
Ivan Martchev is an investment strategist with Navellier. Previously, Ivan served as editorial director at InvestorPlace Media. Ivan was editor of Louis Rukeyser’s Mutual Funds and associate editor of Personal Finance. Ivan is also co-author of The Silk Road to Riches (Financial Times Press). The book provided analysis of geopolitical issues and investment strategy in natural resources and emerging markets with an emphasis on Asia. The book also correctly predicted the collapse in the U.S. real estate market, the rise of precious metals, and the resulting increased investor interest in emerging markets. Ivan’s commentaries have been published by MSNBC, The Motley Fool, MarketWatch, and others. All content of “Global Mail” represents the opinion of Ivan Martchev
Important Disclosures:
Although information in these reports has been obtained from and is based upon sources that Navellier believes to be reliable, Navellier does not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute Navellier’s judgment as of the date the report was created and are subject to change without notice. These reports are for informational purposes only and are not a solicitation for the purchase or sale of a security. Any decision to purchase securities mentioned in these reports must take into account existing public information on such securities or any registered prospectus.To the extent permitted by law, neither Navellier & Associates, Inc., nor any of its affiliates, agents, or service providers assumes any liability or responsibility nor owes any duty of care for any consequences of any person acting or refraining to act in reliance on the information contained in this communication or for any decision based on it.
Past performance is no indication of future results. Investment in securities involves significant risk and has the potential for partial or complete loss of funds invested. It should not be assumed that any securities recommendations made by Navellier. in the future will be profitable or equal the performance of securities made in this report. Dividend payments are not guaranteed. The amount of a dividend payment, if any, can vary over time and issuers may reduce dividends paid on securities in the event of a recession or adverse event affecting a specific industry or issuer.
None of the stock information, data, and company information presented herein constitutes a recommendation by Navellier or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Any specific securities identified and described do not represent all of the securities purchased, sold, or recommended for advisory clients. The holdings identified do not represent all of the securities purchased, sold, or recommended for advisory clients and the reader should not assume that investments in the securities identified and discussed were or will be profitable.
Information presented is general information that does not take into account your individual circumstances, financial situation, or needs, nor does it present a personalized recommendation to you. Individual stocks presented may not be suitable for every investor. Investment in securities involves significant risk and has the potential for partial or complete loss of funds invested. Investment in fixed income securities has the potential for the investment return and principal value of an investment to fluctuate so that an investor’s holdings, when redeemed, may be worth less than their original cost.
One cannot invest directly in an index. Index is unmanaged and index performance does not reflect deduction of fees, expenses, or taxes. Presentation of Index data does not reflect a belief by Navellier that any stock index constitutes an investment alternative to any Navellier equity strategy or is necessarily comparable to such strategies. Among the most important differences between the Indices and Navellier strategies are that the Navellier equity strategies may (1) incur material management fees, (2) concentrate its investments in relatively few stocks, industries, or sectors, (3) have significantly greater trading activity and related costs, and (4) be significantly more or less volatile than the Indices.
ETF Risk: We may invest in exchange traded funds (“ETFs”) and some of our investment strategies are generally fully invested in ETFs. Like traditional mutual funds, ETFs charge asset-based fees, but they generally do not charge initial sales charges or redemption fees and investors typically pay only customary brokerage fees to buy and sell ETF shares. The fees and costs charged by ETFs held in client accounts will not be deducted from the compensation the client pays Navellier. ETF prices can fluctuate up or down, and a client account could lose money investing in an ETF if the prices of the securities owned by the ETF go down. ETFs are subject to additional risks:
- ETF shares may trade above or below their net asset value;
- An active trading market for an ETF’s shares may not develop or be maintained;
- The value of an ETF may be more volatile than the underlying portfolio of securities the ETF is designed to track;
- The cost of owning shares of the ETF may exceed those a client would incur by directly investing in the underlying securities; and
- Trading of an ETF’s shares may be halted if the listing exchange’s officials deem it appropriate, the shares are delisted from the exchange, or the activation of market-wide “circuit breakers” (which are tied to large decreases in stock prices) halts stock trading generally.
Grader Disclosures: Investment in equity strategies involves substantial risk and has the potential for partial or complete loss of funds invested. The sample portfolio and any accompanying charts are for informational purposes only and are not to be construed as a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument and should not be relied upon as the sole factor in an investment making decision. As a matter of normal and important disclosures to you, as a potential investor, please consider the following: The performance presented is not based on any actual securities trading, portfolio, or accounts, and the reported performance of the A, B, C, D, and F portfolios (collectively the “model portfolios”) should be considered mere “paper” or pro forma performance results based on Navellier’s research.
Investors evaluating any of Navellier & Associates, Inc.’s, (or its affiliates’) Investment Products must not use any information presented here, including the performance figures of the model portfolios, in their evaluation of any Navellier Investment Products. Navellier Investment Products include the firm’s mutual funds and managed accounts. The model portfolios, charts, and other information presented do not represent actual funded trades and are not actual funded portfolios. There are material differences between Navellier Investment Products’ portfolios and the model portfolios, research, and performance figures presented here. The model portfolios and the research results (1) may contain stocks or ETFs that are illiquid and difficult to trade; (2) may contain stock or ETF holdings materially different from actual funded Navellier Investment Product portfolios; (3) include the reinvestment of all dividends and other earnings, estimated trading costs, commissions, or management fees; and, (4) may not reflect prices obtained in an actual funded Navellier Investment Product portfolio. For these and other reasons, the reported performances of model portfolios do not reflect the performance results of Navellier’s actually funded and traded Investment Products. In most cases, Navellier’s Investment Products have materially lower performance results than the performances of the model portfolios presented.
This report contains statements that are, or may be considered to be, forward-looking statements. All statements that are not historical facts, including statements about our beliefs or expectations, are “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of The U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements may be identified by such forward-looking terminology as “expect,” “estimate,” “plan,” “intend,” “believe,” “anticipate,” “may,” “will,” “should,” “could,” “continue,” “project,” or similar statements or variations of such terms. Our forward-looking statements are based on a series of expectations, assumptions, and projections, are not guarantees of future results or performance, and involve substantial risks and uncertainty as described in Form ADV Part 2A of our filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), which is available at www.adviserinfo.sec.gov or by requesting a copy by emailing info@navellier.com. All of our forward-looking statements are as of the date of this report only. We can give no assurance that such expectations or forward-looking statements will prove to be correct. Actual results may differ materially. You are urged to carefully consider all such factors.
FEDERAL TAX ADVICE DISCLAIMER: As required by U.S. Treasury Regulations, you are informed that, to the extent this presentation includes any federal tax advice, the presentation is not written by Navellier to be used, and cannot be used, for the purpose of avoiding federal tax penalties. Navellier does not advise on any income tax requirements or issues. Use of any information presented by Navellier is for general information only and does not represent tax advice either express or implied. You are encouraged to seek professional tax advice for income tax questions and assistance.
IMPORTANT NEWSLETTER DISCLOSURE:The hypothetical performance results for investment newsletters that are authored or edited by Louis Navellier, including Louis Navellier’s Growth Investor, Louis Navellier’s Breakthrough Stocks, Louis Navellier’s Accelerated Profits, and Louis Navellier’s Platinum Club, are not based on any actual securities trading, portfolio, or accounts, and the newsletters’ reported hypothetical performances should be considered mere “paper” or proforma hypothetical performance results and are not actual performance of real world trades. Navellier & Associates, Inc. does not have any relation to or affiliation with the owner of these newsletters. There are material differences between Navellier Investment Products’ portfolios and the InvestorPlace Media, LLC newsletter portfolios authored by Louis Navellier. The InvestorPlace Media, LLC newsletters contain hypothetical performance that do not include transaction costs, advisory fees, or other fees a client might incur if actual investments and trades were being made by an investor. As a result, newsletter performance should not be used to evaluate Navellier Investment services which are separate and different from the newsletters. The owner of the newsletters is InvestorPlace Media, LLC and any questions concerning the newsletters, including any newsletter advertising or hypothetical Newsletter performance claims, (which are calculated solely by Investor Place Media and not Navellier) should be referred to InvestorPlace Media, LLC at (800) 718-8289.
Please note that Navellier & Associates and the Navellier Private Client Group are managed completely independent of the newsletters owned and published by InvestorPlace Media, LLC and written and edited by Louis Navellier, and investment performance of the newsletters should in no way be considered indicative of potential future investment performance for any Navellier & Associates separately managed account portfolio. Potential investors should consult with their financial advisor before investing in any Navellier Investment Product.
Navellier claims compliance with Global Investment Performance Standards (GIPS). To receive a complete list and descriptions of Navellier’s composites and/or a presentation that adheres to the GIPS standards, please contact Navellier or click here. It should not be assumed that any securities recommendations made by Navellier & Associates, Inc. in the future will be profitable or equal the performance of securities made in this report.
FactSet Disclosure: Navellier does not independently calculate the statistical information included in the attached report. The calculation and the information are provided by FactSet, a company not related to Navellier. Although information contained in the report has been obtained from FactSet and is based on sources Navellier believes to be reliable, Navellier does not guarantee its accuracy, and it may be incomplete or condensed. The report and the related FactSet sourced information are provided on an “as is” basis. The user assumes the entire risk of any use made of this information. Investors should consider the report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. The report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of a security. FactSet sourced information is the exclusive property of FactSet. Without prior written permission of FactSet, this information may not be reproduced, disseminated or used to create any financial products. All indices are unmanaged and performance of the indices include reinvestment of dividends and interest income, unless otherwise noted, are not illustrative of any particular investment and an investment cannot be made in any index. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.