Super-Low Rates

Super-Low Rates Give Stocks a Superb Comparative Advantage

by Louis Navellier

September 4, 2019

Office Celebration Image

The interest rate environment remains more bullish than ever for the stock market!  Last week, the stock market celebrated the lowest 30-year Treasury bond yield in over a decade as the S&P 500’s dividend yield rose above the 30-year Treasury bond yield, an event that hasn’t happened since 2009, when a massive 10-year bull market rally began!  Since the Fed is carefully monitoring global events, it will be interesting to see just how fast they cut key interest rates, but we could see two 0.25% interest rate cuts at the next two Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings due to rapidly falling Treasury yields.

Most U.S. economic news is also positive, but despite this run of good news, CNBC has been featuring Nomura analyst Masanari Takada, who called for a “Lehman-like” plunge and a monster sell-off that could happen soon. Specifically, in a client note, Takada said the U.S. stock market is facing its “greatest test of the year thus far,” adding that low sentiment is poised to prompt “panic-selling by fundamentals-oriented investors and systematic selling by trend-following technical investors along the way.”

Let me say this bluntly. CNBC likes to promote obscure bearish analysts to boost its ratings and Internet hits. Remember Nouriel Roubini?  Like the boy that cried “wolf,” perma-bears tend to be ignored after making several false calls, and I believe Mr. Takada will soon take his place in this “sky is falling” club.

In This Issue

Unlike Mr. Takada, Bryan Perry knows that low investor sentiment is a contrary sentiment – a good buy signal. Bryan also highlights a sharp rise in a shipping index, indicating revived global growth ahead. Gary Alexander promotes wider asset diversification to survive dangerous and volatile months like August and September. Ivan Martchev is taking the Labor Day weekend off after his annual vacation to his native Bulgaria, while Jason Bodner and I are literally weathering the assault of Dorian on Florida!

Income Mail:
Extreme Negative Investor Sentiment Sets the Table for a September Rally
by Bryan Perry
Is the Baltic Dry Index Signaling a Global Economic Recovery?

Growth Mail:
August and September are Great Months for Well-Diversified Portfolios
by Gary Alexander
Trump’s Tax Cut Boosted Tax Receipts – The Deficit Comes from a Spending Explosion!

Sector Spotlight:
Is This the Calm…or the Storm?
by Jason Bodner
Last Week’s Rally Was a Low-Volume Head-Fake

A Look Ahead:
The Euro-Based “Black Hole” is Benefiting U.S. Stocks and Bonds
by Louis Navellier
The U.S. Economic News Continues to Brighten

Income Mail:

*All content of "Income Mail" represents the opinion of Bryan Perry*

Extreme Negative Investor Sentiment Sets the Table for a September Rally

by Bryan Perry

The August trade war with China reached a fever pitch on Tuesday, August 13, after President Trump tweeted that he would retaliate to the new tariffs on U.S. imports by raising tariffs on Chinese imports, sending the Dow down 800 points the next day, but August closed on a three-day uptick for the major averages, boosted by a rising narrative that the U.S. consumer is feeling pretty good about their present situation. In fact, the Present Situation Index is now at its highest level in nearly 19 years. While other parts of the economy may show some weakening, consumers remain confident and willing to spend.

Why? Consumers’ appraisal of the job market is favorable. According to the Conference Board, “Those saying jobs are ‘plentiful’ increased from 45.6 percent to 51.2 percent, while those claiming jobs are ‘hard to get’ declined from 12.5 percent to 11.8 percent.” The U.S. is a consumer-driven economy, and this past week’s GDP estimate for 2.0% showed that the trade war hasn’t materially impacted spending trends.

A Briefing.com note added, “The key takeaway from the report is that consumer spending growth was revised up to 4.7% from 4.3%, which was the strongest growth since the fourth quarter of 2014. Granted it's a backward-looking data point, yet it offers a nice reminder that the U.S. consumer, supported by a tight labor market, has remained in good shape.” Lower borrowing costs within a $21+ trillion economy is acting as a huge lever and the Fed is going to keep the consumer jazzed with a rate cut on September 18.

Personal Consumption Chart

Graphs are for illustrative and discussion purposes only. Please read important disclosures at the end of this commentary.

Who would have wagered a lunch at a Wall Street food truck that the big box retailers would be the hottest sector during August with trade tensions boiling over? Shares of Target, Walmart, Home Depot, Lowe’s, and Costco soared last month. Just as a side note, Costco opened its first store in Shanghai and had the local police limit the number of customers occupying the store at any given time to 2,000! I guess Costco consumers in Shanghai didn’t get the memo that there’s a trade war going on with the U.S.

(A few Navellier & Associates clients own positions in Walmart, Home Depot, and Costco, but not in Target and Lowe's. Bryan Perry does not own Target, Walmart, Home Depot, Lowe's, and Costco in personal accounts.)

CostcoOpening.jpg

It’s not just the robust consumer at work that will counteract negative investor sentiment. It’s the simple fact that money goes where it is best served. Hedge fund Hayman Capital’s manager Kyle Bass, whom I view as pretty sharp and transparent, stated in a CNBC interview on August 20 that, “We’re the only country that has an integer in front of our bond yields…. We have 90% of the world’s investment-grade debt. We actually have rule of law and we have a decent economy. All the money is going to come here.”

All this good news regarding an upbeat consumer comes at a time when investor sentiment is in the tank. The latest AAII survey has bullish sentiment down to 26.1%, well off its 38% historical norm. The good news about this survey is that it happens to be one of the most accurate contra-indicators that signals market tops and bottoms. If past is prologue, a low bullish reading is a green light to add equity risk.

Survey Results Pictograph

Graphs are for illustrative and discussion purposes only. Please read important disclosures at the end of this commentary.

Is the Baltic Dry Index Signaling a Global Economic Recovery?

The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) is a shipping and trade index created by the London-based Baltic Exchange. It measures changes in the cost of transporting various raw materials, such as coal, copper, cement, and iron ore. The Baltic Exchange calculates the index by assessing multiple shipping rates across more than 20 routes for each of the BDI component vessels. Members contact dry bulk shippers worldwide to gather their prices and then they calculate an average. The Baltic Exchange issues the BDI daily. 

Since it measures a variety of raw materials on order for the production of intermediate or finished goods, the BDI can be seen as a leading economic indicator for future economic activity. During this past week, the Baltic Dry Index traded to a fresh nine-year high capped by a torrid seven-day straight up rally.

Baltic Exchange Dry Index Chart

Graphs are for illustrative and discussion purposes only. Please read important disclosures at the end of this commentary.

I’m not making a call on a sudden global economic rebound, but I am bringing to light an identifier that got my attention this past week. Since the majority of economic data is backward-looking, it makes sense to pay attention to the BDI for clues that defy the widely held bearish narrative regarding global growth.

The BDI is quite possibly a healthy tea leaf amid a very crowded field of very thorny prognosticators.

Growth Mail:

*All content of "Growth Mail" represents the opinion of Gary Alexander*

August and September are Great Months for Well-Diversified Portfolios

by Gary Alexander

After a positive final week, August was fairly painless for stock investors, down only 1.81% in the S&P 500 and -1.72% in the Dow Industrials, but with proper diversification August was positive for balanced portfolios. Bonds were up nearly 3% and precious metals soared, with gold up 7.1% and silver up 11.6% in August alone. Using a 60-40 stock-bond weighting, August turned out to be a wash – no gain, no loss – but if you were 50% stocks, 30% bonds, 10% gold, 10% silver, your portfolio gained +1.75% in August.

Randall W. Forsyth, writing in the September 2, 2019 edition of Barron’s, calculated that a traditional 60% stock, 40% bond portfolio using the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) for stocks and the iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG) for bonds, year-to-date, “would show a sparkling return of 14.45%, consisting of 18.16% from the equity side and 8.89% from the debt portion.”  But there was a vicious stock market correction from September to December last year, when bonds outperformed stocks, so if you go back a full year, the 60/40 portfolio returned +5.53%, with the bond side delivering +10.26% vs. only 2.37% from the stock side, so proper portfolio diversification works in both bull and bear markets.

You wouldn’t know it from the media, but it’s been a great year for stocks, bonds, and precious metals:

Asset Appreciation Table

Why did gold, silver, and bonds do so well in August and all year? It’s a fallout from the trade war and the global “race to the bottom” in interest rates, in a currency war on two fronts: In the trade war between the U.S. and China, the Sun Tzu disciples in Beijing devalued their own currency to gain trade advantages or to offset the cost of U.S. tariffs. On the other currency front, Europe and Japan have tacked on negative interest rates to their sovereign debt, forcing investors to rush to the U.S., which was also lowering rates.

The silent winners in this bizarre race to the bottom in currency values are gold and silver, the long-term currency components of the world’s first coins, dating back to the 7th century BC. Electrum was a gold-silver alloy that remained common in the earliest coins. The gold standard lasted until the 1930s, while America retained a gold exchange standard until August 1971, when President Nixon refused to honor the $35 per ounce exchange rate for gold to the dollar, after which the dollar “floated” and then sank in value.

In the 48 years since Nixon closed the gold window, the U.S. dollar has lost 97.7% of its value to gold. Most other currencies have fared worse than that, so gold is that part of a portfolio I call “super-cash.” It does not compete with stocks. It competes with bonds or cash. In a world of low interest rates, gold can soar, and gold now enters its historically best time of year – September through February – when gold jewelry is fabricated for a series of holidays, starting in India, then Christmas, on to China’s New Year.

Trump’s Tax Cut Boosted Tax Receipts – The Deficit Comes from a Spending Explosion!

President Trump campaigned on cutting spending and cutting taxes. He cut taxes but he forgot about the spending cuts. Some are blaming the current deficits on his tax cuts, but that’s not fair. As in previous tax cuts, lower tax rates spurred growth and higher tax collections. Tax receipts in fiscal year 2019 (ending this month) are up 3% over FY-2018, and tax receipts are slated to rise by another 6% in fiscal year 2020.

It’s the spending, stupid. That’s the problem. Last week, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released its projection of the federal deficit over the next year and 10 years, projecting a deficit of $960 billion this year (FY-2019) and an average $1.2 trillion annual deficits from 2020 to 2029 (chart below).

United States Federal Government Budget Balance Chart

Graphs are for illustrative and discussion purposes only. Please read important disclosures at the end of this commentary.

Treasury debt held by the public is projected to grow by 77%, from $16.6 trillion this year to $29.3 trillion in 2029. This crowds out funds available to invest in stocks or businesses or consumer spending.

The problem is not tax receipts but spending. Both political parties have given up on spending restraints. They have both agreed to give up on any “debt ceiling” until 2021, after the next election. On March 21, President Trump released his budget for fiscal year 2021, which called for spending of a record $4.746 trillion, while bringing in only $3.645 trillion from all sources. While that represents a 6% increase from FY 2019 revenues, it represents a $1.1 trillion deficit for the fiscal year starting October 1, 2019.

This does not even bring into the picture any of the Democratic candidates’ Fantasy Island plans for a post-2020 revolutionary remaking of the American economy through Medicare for All, free college, debt forgiveness, ad infinitum. Neither Party is serious about cutting spending or asking for any sacrifices.

In this day of super-low interest rates, imagine what a $30 trillion federal debt would cost if the average interest rate went up to just 4% or 5% in five or 10 years. We need candidates who talk restraint, not pipe dreams. Unfortunately, anyone talking common sense or practicality seems to get booed off the stage.

Practically speaking, the Treasury should be selling all the 10-year to 30-year bonds it can sell at sub-2% rates NOW, rather than selling large volumes of short-term bills, which are the most exposed to changes in interest rates. There is no way our nation can afford to pay 5% or more on $30+ trillion in public debt.

Sector Spotlight:

*All content of "Sector Spotlight" represents the opinion of Jason Bodner*

Is This the Calm…or the Storm?

by Jason Bodner

Markets and individual stocks need to take breathers every now and then. When I think of great stocks, they often pause and gather strength before spring-boarding higher. Sometimes the lags are brief. Other times they are longer. The Earth itself had a similar lag period in its own evolution. Activity stalled for about a billion years, a period that scientists dubbed “the boring billion.” During that Big Yawn, the Earth became a slimy, near-static world of algae and microbes. Then boom! Evolution exploded and flourished.

I think we are in such a breather for the U.S. stock market.

August has lived up to my expectations of a bumpy, unpredictable ride. Bad and good news seem to come from nowhere and the trajectory of the market is hard to see in the immediate term.

This is a lot like what I am seeing with this unprecedented storm headed my way.

Hurricane Dorian is bearing down and coming uncomfortably close to where I live.

MyHouse.jpg

Uncertainty and volatility can never be removed from life, nor can it be removed from markets, so the best we can hope for is to make sense from it and try to adjust for when some predictability returns; so as we bid farewell to a volatile August and welcome a potentially volatile September, where do we stand?

Last Week’s Rally Was a Low-Volume Head-Fake

First off, the major onslaught of selling has slowed down into a light volume going into the Labor Day holiday weekend. The good news is that the market has been rallying. The bad news is that it’s been rallying on very low volume. That means that the recent rally should be treated as suspect – a head-fake.

The low-volume week just past brought us low signal counts. The distribution of buying and selling was in favor of selling, while Utilities and Staples saw a spike in their buying. This is still defensive action.

 Map Signals Table

Graphs are for illustrative and discussion purposes only. Please read important disclosures at the end of this commentary.

The other thing to make note of is that the MAP Big Money Index keeps falling. That’s a ratio of buying to selling. When buying dries up and selling picks up, that index falls. When it falls below 45%, we typically see lower market prices ahead. That spells “caution.”  That’s the bad news: We may be in for more bumps and discomfort. The good news, though, is that when we see a drop below 45%, it typically means we are close to the end of selling. It’s like the seventh inning in baseball: the game is nearly over, but there’s a lot of game left to play, with some decisive end-game strategies to be worked out.

Russell2000.png

Graphs are for illustrative and discussion purposes only. Please read important disclosures at the end of this commentary.

But here’s the thing: Great stocks go up over time. It’s an observable fact. The trick is to find the best stocks that big money is pouring into. Zero in on those and get positioned. When they “go on sale,” that is a great time to pounce. But fear often gets in our way. We fear “it could go lower,” or “I could lose money.” No one likes to lose money or feel in danger. But losing is a part of winning. There are countless stories of failure preceding greatness. Athletes, playwrights, composers, creators, politicians, and any other walk of life is dominated by stories of failure preceding great success.

Michael Jordan said, “I have failed time and time again, and that is why I succeed.” Colin Powell said, “There are no secrets to success. It is the result of preparation, hard work, and learning from failure.” Steve Jobs said, “If you are not willing to fail, you are not going to get very far.”

As the market bobs and weaves, we need to focus on the data. Earnings reports were very good for the second quarter. Interest rates are low and likely going lower. Europe has political headwinds, causing capital flight out of equities there. Latin America is rife with major issues. China is reporting a slowing economy. Amid all this doom and gloom, the United States remains the bright spot. We are the safe haven in a world of uncertainty. And as the dividend yield of the S&P 500 is now more than the 30-year bond before taxes, the after-tax treatment makes owning stocks far more compelling.

This means that if we see a market dip, you should have your shopping list ready. When you’ve had your eye on a coat, or a car, or a computer, and there’s a price slash, you wouldn’t hesitate to dive in and seize the opportunity. But when stocks go on sale, people question why, or how much lower can it go?

I suggest you research your stock wish-list and get it honed and ready. The market is providing you with entry points and will continue to provide opportunities to take advantage. Our data suggests one is lining up, and should it come, it’s a great chance to grab some stocks. Should it not come, then logic is starting to prevail, and investors are starting to realize there is no better place to put your money than U.S. stocks.

So, as I hunker down and prepare to ride out whatever Hurricane Dorian delivers, I am also thinking about when hurricanes rip through markets. In the past, each correction has invariably proven to be a great buying opportunity. It almost makes you want to see some red ink…

A Look Ahead

*All content in this "A Look Ahead" section of Market Mail represents the opinion of Louis Navellier of Navellier & Associates, Inc.*

The Euro-Based “Black Hole” is Benefiting U.S. Stocks and Bonds

by Louis Navellier

Let me shock you with the truth. There is a “black hole” in the global bond market, namely $17 trillion in negative-yielding government securities, predominantly in the Eurozone and Japan. The only reason that Germany can sell negative yielding government debt is that the European Central Bank (ECB) forces member banks to hold government securities. Naturally, smarter institutional and individual investors will not tolerate negative yields, so there is international capital flight to the U.S. This is strengthening the U.S. dollar, driving down commodity prices, and squelching inflation. If the “black hole” expands, it is possible that it could cause widespread deflation, which would be devastating, hurting all asset prices.

Black Hole Accretion Disk Image

In the meantime, this euro-based “black hole” is not hurting the U.S., but instead is actually helping both the U.S stock and bond markets, due to international capital flight. That’s why I reject the bears’ latest call for an imminent market sell-off. If we have a sharp sell-off in the stock market, it is only because we are in the bumpy late summer weeks, when trading volume is erratic. Previous sell-offs on light trading volume in recent weeks have all rebounded impressively. Good stocks usually bounce right back, just like fresh tennis balls, so we should not allow the latest CNBC perma-bears to scare us away from stocks.

I should also point out that many investors, including myself, were recently rattled when President Trump declared on Twitter that both Fed Chairman Powell and China were “enemies” of the U.S. and abruptly “ordered” U.S. corporations to stop doing business with China. Later, President Trump softened his rhetoric and explained at a G7 press conference that he could still be friends with his “enemies,” which may explain his relationship with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un. During the G7 press conference, he also made it clear that he would be willing to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping and Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani. Overall, the President was trying to tell countries over which he imposes sanctions or tariffs that they are welcome to meet with his administration to discuss lifting those sanctions or tariffs!

Interestingly, some in the media concluded that President Trump’s unorthodox negotiating techniques make sense, especially if “enemies” of the U.S., like Iran, are willing to come to the negotiating table. The New York Post said it best in an opinion piece (on August 25) titled, “Trump took a page out of the WWE’s playbook” to describe how President Trump likes to make his opposition villains before he starts negotiations. Just as he is now praising Mexico and Kim Jong-un after previously belittling them, do not be surprised if he wants to make both China and Iran “great again” if they eventually agree to his demands.

Of course, others in the media have concluded that President Trump is a perpetually offensive bully and others in the international media are now equally distracted by new British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who can be much more colorful that President Trump, especially with the spotlight more on him leading up to the Brexit deadline on October 31st. The truth of the matter is that the media can get bored belittling a single politician, so they need new targets to demonize every now and then. In the meantime, media-hungry politicians like Boris Johnson and President Trump remain masters at manipulating the media with new stories and tweets, while the media all too often like to “react” to news rather than analyze it.

Speaking of Boris Johnson, he met with Queen Elizabeth on Wednesday and she issued an order to suspend Parliament in September to squelch any Brexit opposition from Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn. This bold maneuver means that Brexit on October 31st is now much more likely, so the British pound sold off and remains near a 34-year low relative to the U.S. dollar. Provided Brexit is successful, I expect that the British pound will rally impressively in early November and the euro will weaken. Right now, only Britain and the U.S. have positive 10-year government bond yields, so I expect that some of the international capital flight to the U.S. may be diverted to Britain, post-Brexit, chasing higher yields.

The U.S. Economic News Continues to Brighten

The U.S. economic news last week was largely encouraging, especially when compared with Europe’s malaise. The Commerce Department announced last week that durable goods orders rose 2.1% in July, led by a 47.8% surge in commercial aircraft and parts. Excluding that surge in transportation, durable goods orders declined by 0.4%, but non-defense durable goods rose 0.4%, which was a good sign.

The Conference Board on Tuesday announced that its consumer confidence index declined slightly to 135.1 in August, down from a revised 135.8 in July, but this was a big positive surprise, since economists expected consumer confidence to decline sharply to 127.8 due to the escalating trade war. Especially encouraging is that the Conference Board’s present situation index rose to 177.2 in August, up sharply from 170.9 in July. This may explain why consumer spending remains robust at discount retailers and home improvement stores, which is a very good sign! Overall, I am encouraged that consumer confidence remains near a 19-year high, and I expect that retail sales will remain strong in the upcoming months.

The Commerce Department announced on Thursday that the U.S. trade deficit narrowed to $72.3 billion in July, down from $74.2 billion in June. This is good news, since economists expected the deficit to reach $75 billion. Exports rose 0.7% to $137.3 billion, while imports declined 0.4% to $209.7 billion. Overall, the better-than-expected trade deficit means that third-quarter GDP growth is off to a great start.

Speaking of GDP growth, the Commerce Department on Thursday revised second-quarter GDP growth to a 2.0% annual pace, down slightly from a 2.1% pace previously estimated. The details were very interesting, in that consumer spending in the second-quarter grew at a 4.7% annual pace, up from 4.4% previously estimated, while fixed business investment grew at a 1.1% annual pace, up from 0.8% as first estimated. The primary reason that second-quarter GDP growth was revised down slightly was because exports declined by a wider-than-expected 5.8% and inventories were also revised down a bit. Overall, strong consumer spending in the second quarter bodes very well for continued strong GDP growth.

The Commerce Department on Friday announced that consumer spending rose by a healthy 0.6% in July, which bodes well for third-quarter GDP growth. Interestingly, due to robust consumer spending, the savings rate slipped to 7.7% in July, the lowest rate since November. The Fed’s favorite inflation indicator, the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) index, rose 0.2% in July and is up 1.4% in the past 12 months. Since the PCE is well below the Fed’s 2% target, a rate cut is likely on September 18th.


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