by Jason Bodner

September 14, 2021

We are all profoundly lucky to be alive – especially me.

Last weekend, we marked the 20th anniversary of September 11th. On that day, I flew to speak at the Money Show. I was uneasy, because 20 years ago – to the day – was the worst terrorist attack on American soil. Our enemies weaponized airplanes, just like the one I was flying on that day.

In early July 2001, I took a job at Cantor Fitzgerald. I trained in their offices on the 104th floor at 1 World Trade Center. Every day, I took three separate elevators to arrive by 7:30 am. I was a kid, still in my 20s, wide-eyed and thrilled at the opportunity, like most of the young professionals around me.

My job was to master our new OMS (order management system), called MARCO, and then deploy it in Europe. I spent days learning trading, technology, and helping out wherever I could. Each night, I’d hang with the guys, drinking, eating, and making friends. That camaraderie was encouraged by the company.

My luck came from a choice forced on me. I was asked if I preferred working in New York or London when I was hired. I chose London, but that presented problems with securing visas and moving. I was given the option to train in New York for six months and then move, but I lost my lease at the time and simply told the company: “You choose. If it’s New York, it’s now. If it’s London, it’s now. Either way, let me know and I’m there.” My boss (and brother-in-law) said, “Come to London; we’ll figure it out.”

So, my tenure at World Trade Center was less than a month. On, July 25th, my fiancé, my dog and I began our London adventure. I said my goodbyes, certain that I’d see my New York friends on a future visit.

I never did.

A few weeks later, my cartons finally arrived by boat from the States. The day I finally moved in, the seat I sat in turned to ash along with my friends, colleagues, and many other people I never knew at all.

Unknowingly, I entrusted my life to my brother-in-law’s impulsive decision – so I got incredibly lucky.

It’s important to have perspective. I talk of buying “outlier stocks” on dips. But we can’t do it if we’re not alive, so I urge you all to constantly take a moment and appreciate your own luck… we all have it.

And thanks for allowing me that reflective moment. Now, let’s talk about how to make our own luck…

Luck can be tough to find in September, because it is often a negative month for stocks. I showed you the facts last week, but again here are the average returns for September to December dating back to 1990: MapSignals Monthly Returns Table

Graphs are for illustrative and discussion purposes only. Please read important disclosures at the end of this commentary.

No one really likes looking at red numbers, so when we take out September, our spirits can rise: MapSignals Monthly Returns Table1

Graphs are for illustrative and discussion purposes only. Please read important disclosures at the end of this commentary.

While there are no guarantees, our portfolios are set up to fly in the last three months of the year.

I like to stack the odds in our favor, so let’s add another layer – the Big Money Index. Here we see that the BMI is gaining upward momentum:

MapSignals BIG Money Index Chart

Graphs are for illustrative and discussion purposes only. Please read important disclosures at the end of this commentary.

This is important because, for the past few months, while the S&P 500 and NASDAQ were hitting highs, small-cap stocks were getting hurt. Now they’re improving as many formerly hated groups are perking up. Areas that come to mind are Chinese ADRs, discretionary stocks and smaller tech stocks.

Whenever selling slows and buying increases, stocks usually rally. High-quality stocks with great earnings are surging. This indicates quality is getting bought under the surface, which is refreshing after waves of rotations made frustrating markets. And they are getting bought. Look how buying is increasing: MapSignals BIG Money Stock Buy and Sell Chart

Graphs are for illustrative and discussion purposes only. Please read important disclosures at the end of this commentary.

Those blue bars are individual stocks getting bought in an unusual way. That lifts the BMI.

If the BMI is lifting and there’s buying we can observe, any September dips should be bought. But let’s keep in mind that it’s still September, so when do we buy? Here we see the big sell days over the last year highlighted. We notice when selling has come, it’s been an opportunity to grab discounted stocks: MapSignals BIG Money Stock Buy and Sell Chart1

Graphs are for illustrative and discussion purposes only. Please read important disclosures at the end of this commentary.

Big red sell days mark lows. And look at the 2-week forward return for SPY after each of those red days: MapSignals Stock Sell Count Table

Graphs are for illustrative and discussion purposes only. Please read important disclosures at the end of this commentary.

ETF data supports this view that flowers bloom after the rain. When ETF selling peaks, lows arrive: MapSignals BIG Money ETF Buy and Sell

Graphs are for illustrative and discussion purposes only. Please read important disclosures at the end of this commentary.

We see the same forward return profile when ETF selling spikes: MapSignals ETF Sell Count Table

Graphs are for illustrative and discussion purposes only. Please read important disclosures at the end of this commentary.

Last week was a shortened, muted post-holiday week with even buying and selling. But the back half of September is when I expect to see activity increase. Last week we saw buying in Communications, Energy, and Tech. Staples stocks were sold, which is bullish as buying in that group is defensive. MapSignals Sector Ranking Table

Graphs are for illustrative and discussion purposes only. Please read important disclosures at the end of this commentary.

Digging a little deeper, we can see electronics and Upstream Energy seeing concentrated buying: MapSignals Top 5 Industry Group Table

Graphs are for illustrative and discussion purposes only. Please read important disclosures at the end of this commentary.

Interestingly, Biotech saw selling but not enough to make Healthcare an evident pain point: MapSignals Bottom 5 Industry Group Table

Graphs are for illustrative and discussion purposes only. Please read important disclosures at the end of this commentary.

The setup is clear: Buy any dips in the coming weeks. The data is bullish, with a rising BMI, but should things deteriorate, history suggests that when it looks ugly is when we want to be brave. This is when we can make our own luck.

It took a bit of bravery on my part to leave my family, friends and everything I had ever known to go embrace the unknown of a new life abroad. Little did I know that I made my own luck with that move.

Buying market dips can make for terrific gains. In the end, though, I am highly confident that stock prices will be higher in the coming years, and certainly the coming decades.

So, make your own luck but don’t get too hung up on prices. Know what’s really important. As Oscar Wilde said, “A cynic is a man who knows the price of everything but the value of nothing.”

All content above represents the opinion of Jason Bodner of Navellier & Associates, Inc.

Please see important disclosures below.

Also In This Issue

Global Mail by Ivan Martchev
This Could Be “The Big One”

Sector Spotlight by Jason Bodner
Why 9/11 is Personal to Me

View Full Archive
Read Past Issues Here

About The Author

Jason Bodner
MARKETMAIL EDITOR FOR SECTOR SPOTLIGHT

Jason Bodner writes Sector Spotlight in the weekly Marketmail publication and has authored several white papers for the company. He is also Co-Founder of Macro Analytics for Professionals which produces proprietary equity accumulation/distribution research for its clients. Previously, Mr. Bodner served as Director of European Equity Derivatives for Cantor Fitzgerald Europe in London, then moved to the role of Head of Equity Derivatives North America for the same company in New York. He also served as S.V.P. Equity Derivatives for Jefferies, LLC. He received a B.S. in business administration in 1996, with honors, from Skidmore College as a member of the Periclean Honors Society. All content of “Sector Spotlight” represents the opinion of Jason Bodner

Important Disclosures:

Jason Bodner is a co-founder and co-owner of Mapsignals. Mr. Bodner is an independent contractor who is occasionally hired by Navellier & Associates to write an article and or provide opinions for possible use in articles that appear in Navellier & Associates weekly Market Mail. Mr. Bodner is not employed or affiliated with Louis Navellier, Navellier & Associates, Inc., or any other Navellier owned entity. The opinions and statements made here are those of Mr. Bodner and not necessarily those of any other persons or entities. This is not an endorsement, or solicitation or testimonial or investment advice regarding the BMI Index or any statements or recommendations or analysis in the article or the BMI Index or Mapsignals or its products or strategies.

Although information in these reports has been obtained from and is based upon sources that Navellier believes to be reliable, Navellier does not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute Navellier’s judgment as of the date the report was created and are subject to change without notice. These reports are for informational purposes only and are not a solicitation for the purchase or sale of a security. Any decision to purchase securities mentioned in these reports must take into account existing public information on such securities or any registered prospectus.To the extent permitted by law, neither Navellier & Associates, Inc., nor any of its affiliates, agents, or service providers assumes any liability or responsibility nor owes any duty of care for any consequences of any person acting or refraining to act in reliance on the information contained in this communication or for any decision based on it.

Past performance is no indication of future results. Investment in securities involves significant risk and has the potential for partial or complete loss of funds invested. It should not be assumed that any securities recommendations made by Navellier. in the future will be profitable or equal the performance of securities made in this report. Dividend payments are not guaranteed. The amount of a dividend payment, if any, can vary over time and issuers may reduce dividends paid on securities in the event of a recession or adverse event affecting a specific industry or issuer.

None of the stock information, data, and company information presented herein constitutes a recommendation by Navellier or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Any specific securities identified and described do not represent all of the securities purchased, sold, or recommended for advisory clients. The holdings identified do not represent all of the securities purchased, sold, or recommended for advisory clients and the reader should not assume that investments in the securities identified and discussed were or will be profitable.

Information presented is general information that does not take into account your individual circumstances, financial situation, or needs, nor does it present a personalized recommendation to you. Individual stocks presented may not be suitable for every investor. Investment in securities involves significant risk and has the potential for partial or complete loss of funds invested. Investment in fixed income securities has the potential for the investment return and principal value of an investment to fluctuate so that an investor’s holdings, when redeemed, may be worth less than their original cost.

One cannot invest directly in an index. Index is unmanaged and index performance does not reflect deduction of fees, expenses, or taxes. Presentation of Index data does not reflect a belief by Navellier that any stock index constitutes an investment alternative to any Navellier equity strategy or is necessarily comparable to such strategies. Among the most important differences between the Indices and Navellier strategies are that the Navellier equity strategies may (1) incur material management fees, (2) concentrate its investments in relatively few stocks, industries, or sectors, (3) have significantly greater trading activity and related costs, and (4) be significantly more or less volatile than the Indices.

ETF Risk: We may invest in exchange traded funds (“ETFs”) and some of our investment strategies are generally fully invested in ETFs. Like traditional mutual funds, ETFs charge asset-based fees, but they generally do not charge initial sales charges or redemption fees and investors typically pay only customary brokerage fees to buy and sell ETF shares. The fees and costs charged by ETFs held in client accounts will not be deducted from the compensation the client pays Navellier. ETF prices can fluctuate up or down, and a client account could lose money investing in an ETF if the prices of the securities owned by the ETF go down. ETFs are subject to additional risks:

  • ETF shares may trade above or below their net asset value;
  • An active trading market for an ETF’s shares may not develop or be maintained;
  • The value of an ETF may be more volatile than the underlying portfolio of securities the ETF is designed to track;
  • The cost of owning shares of the ETF may exceed those a client would incur by directly investing in the underlying securities; and
  • Trading of an ETF’s shares may be halted if the listing exchange’s officials deem it appropriate, the shares are delisted from the exchange, or the activation of market-wide “circuit breakers” (which are tied to large decreases in stock prices) halts stock trading generally.

Grader Disclosures: Investment in equity strategies involves substantial risk and has the potential for partial or complete loss of funds invested. The sample portfolio and any accompanying charts are for informational purposes only and are not to be construed as a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument and should not be relied upon as the sole factor in an investment making decision. As a matter of normal and important disclosures to you, as a potential investor, please consider the following: The performance presented is not based on any actual securities trading, portfolio, or accounts, and the reported performance of the A, B, C, D, and F portfolios (collectively the “model portfolios”) should be considered mere “paper” or pro forma performance results based on Navellier’s research.

Investors evaluating any of Navellier & Associates, Inc.’s, (or its affiliates’) Investment Products must not use any information presented here, including the performance figures of the model portfolios, in their evaluation of any Navellier Investment Products. Navellier Investment Products include the firm’s mutual funds and managed accounts. The model portfolios, charts, and other information presented do not represent actual funded trades and are not actual funded portfolios. There are material differences between Navellier Investment Products’ portfolios and the model portfolios, research, and performance figures presented here. The model portfolios and the research results (1) may contain stocks or ETFs that are illiquid and difficult to trade; (2) may contain stock or ETF holdings materially different from actual funded Navellier Investment Product portfolios; (3) include the reinvestment of all dividends and other earnings, estimated trading costs, commissions, or management fees; and, (4) may not reflect prices obtained in an actual funded Navellier Investment Product portfolio. For these and other reasons, the reported performances of model portfolios do not reflect the performance results of Navellier’s actually funded and traded Investment Products. In most cases, Navellier’s Investment Products have materially lower performance results than the performances of the model portfolios presented.

This report contains statements that are, or may be considered to be, forward-looking statements. All statements that are not historical facts, including statements about our beliefs or expectations, are “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of The U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements may be identified by such forward-looking terminology as “expect,” “estimate,” “plan,” “intend,” “believe,” “anticipate,” “may,” “will,” “should,” “could,” “continue,” “project,” or similar statements or variations of such terms. Our forward-looking statements are based on a series of expectations, assumptions, and projections, are not guarantees of future results or performance, and involve substantial risks and uncertainty as described in Form ADV Part 2A of our filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), which is available at www.adviserinfo.sec.gov or by requesting a copy by emailing info@navellier.com. All of our forward-looking statements are as of the date of this report only. We can give no assurance that such expectations or forward-looking statements will prove to be correct. Actual results may differ materially. You are urged to carefully consider all such factors.

FEDERAL TAX ADVICE DISCLAIMER: As required by U.S. Treasury Regulations, you are informed that, to the extent this presentation includes any federal tax advice, the presentation is not written by Navellier to be used, and cannot be used, for the purpose of avoiding federal tax penalties. Navellier does not advise on any income tax requirements or issues. Use of any information presented by Navellier is for general information only and does not represent tax advice either express or implied. You are encouraged to seek professional tax advice for income tax questions and assistance.

IMPORTANT NEWSLETTER DISCLOSURE:The hypothetical performance results for investment newsletters that are authored or edited by Louis Navellier, including Louis Navellier’s Growth Investor, Louis Navellier’s Breakthrough Stocks, Louis Navellier’s Accelerated Profits, and Louis Navellier’s Platinum Club, are not based on any actual securities trading, portfolio, or accounts, and the newsletters’ reported hypothetical performances should be considered mere “paper” or proforma hypothetical performance results and are not actual performance of real world trades.  Navellier & Associates, Inc. does not have any relation to or affiliation with the owner of these newsletters. There are material differences between Navellier Investment Products’ portfolios and the InvestorPlace Media, LLC newsletter portfolios authored by Louis Navellier. The InvestorPlace Media, LLC newsletters contain hypothetical performance that do not include transaction costs, advisory fees, or other fees a client might incur if actual investments and trades were being made by an investor. As a result, newsletter performance should not be used to evaluate Navellier Investment services which are separate and different from the newsletters. The owner of the newsletters is InvestorPlace Media, LLC and any questions concerning the newsletters, including any newsletter advertising or hypothetical Newsletter performance claims, (which are calculated solely by Investor Place Media and not Navellier) should be referred to InvestorPlace Media, LLC at (800) 718-8289.

Please note that Navellier & Associates and the Navellier Private Client Group are managed completely independent of the newsletters owned and published by InvestorPlace Media, LLC and written and edited by Louis Navellier, and investment performance of the newsletters should in no way be considered indicative of potential future investment performance for any Navellier & Associates separately managed account portfolio. Potential investors should consult with their financial advisor before investing in any Navellier Investment Product.

Navellier claims compliance with Global Investment Performance Standards (GIPS). To receive a complete list and descriptions of Navellier’s composites and/or a presentation that adheres to the GIPS standards, please contact Navellier or click here. It should not be assumed that any securities recommendations made by Navellier & Associates, Inc. in the future will be profitable or equal the performance of securities made in this report.

FactSet Disclosure: Navellier does not independently calculate the statistical information included in the attached report. The calculation and the information are provided by FactSet, a company not related to Navellier. Although information contained in the report has been obtained from FactSet and is based on sources Navellier believes to be reliable, Navellier does not guarantee its accuracy, and it may be incomplete or condensed. The report and the related FactSet sourced information are provided on an “as is” basis. The user assumes the entire risk of any use made of this information. Investors should consider the report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. The report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of a security. FactSet sourced information is the exclusive property of FactSet. Without prior written permission of FactSet, this information may not be reproduced, disseminated or used to create any financial products. All indices are unmanaged and performance of the indices include reinvestment of dividends and interest income, unless otherwise noted, are not illustrative of any particular investment and an investment cannot be made in any index. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.