by Louis Navellier

September 13, 2022

Over the Labor Day weekend, The Wall Street Journal (in “Federal Oil Leases Slowed to a Trickle Under Biden,” September 3-4, 2022), reported that no other president since Richard Nixon in 1969 and 1970 had leased out fewer than 4.4 million acres during the first 19 months of his first term. However, President Biden’s Interior Department has leased out only 126,228 acres (less than 200 square miles) for drilling through August 20th of 2022 (his first 19 months in office). In doing so, he is fulfilling his campaign promise to stop drilling on federal lands, due to his commitment to transitioning to cleaner energy.

Specifically, candidate Biden frequently made a firm promise of “No more drilling on federal lands, no more drilling, including offshore … no ability for the oil industry to continue to drill … period.”

The Journal article quoted David Bernhardt, an energy lawyer and former Interior Secretary in the Trump administration, who said, “The president said he was going to stop leasing, and he’s been remarkably successful.” Obviously, the mid-term elections will sort out whether most voters agree with this policy

Interestingly, OPEC+ last week agreed to reduce its crude oil production by 100,000 barrels a day due to fears that demand will drop due to seasonal pressure, as well as weak economic growth overseas. Both crude oil and natural gas prices remain artificially high due to external forces, such as (1) Putin’s bad behavior, (2) Europe imposing special energy taxes that squelch innovation and (3) President Biden going on the warpath against fossil fuels (and his predecessor). Fortunately, energy stocks are poised to report strong earnings for the second half of 2022, while the S&P 500 is forecasted to post earnings declines.

At the same time, Biden’s intentions for a rapid transition to alternative energy sources are backfiring. I ordered a couple of EVs, but their production and delivery dates keep changing almost weekly as the company apologizes on its website for supply chain woes as well as shipping glitches. Clearly, there are acute supplier problems, complicated by an acute drought, shipping woes and sky-high electricity prices.

The latest heat wave threw California into a seasonal sauna. My family has a home in Solano Beach in North San Diego County that does not have air conditioning, since it sits atop a hill that gets cooled by coastal fog on most mornings, but during the recent heat wave, state warnings of rolling blackouts caused my family to flee. The State of California has issued warnings to set thermostats to 78 and not charge electric vehicles (EVs) in order to protect the power grid, which does not generate much hope for the grid.

Obviously, we can profit from the transformation to a green economy, which is why Enphase Energy has been a big winner in our portfolios. However, the ESG investing fad flamed out last year after the Lucid and Rivian IPOs, which turned out to be mostly “pump and dumps” by Silicon Valley venture capitalists using the IPO as an opportunity to exit. A year ago, Lucid and Rivian were ESG “darlings” and after their IPOs, they were briefly worth more than GM and Ford, respectively, in the hopes that they might become the next Tesla. Now, both Lucid and Rivian need more capital injections, since they cannot obtain the batteries that they need to scale up to their EV production, so both are still losing money.

The net result is that the green revolution is still a luxury for rich people who can afford an expensive EV, or solar panels and powerwalls to reduce their dependence on electricity grids. The green revolution will continue, but with barely 3% of U.S. electricity production originating from solar and wind sources, fossil fuels will still dominate energy production for the rest of my lifetime. The truth of the matter is that unless each and every homeowner decides to spend $100,000 or more to go off the electricity grid with an integrated Enphase Energy system, the green revolution will not be happening with the rapidity that President Biden’s team wants. Ironically, there were not many serious incentives in Congress’ green energy bill other than to raise taxes on coal, crude oil, natural gas and methane emissions.

One of the exciting developments last week was that Britain’s new Prime Minister Liz Truss proposed slashing taxes and providing relief to citizens facing record high electricity bills. Essentially, Prime Minister Truss is trying to shock the British economy back to life, so that the velocity of money picks up and prosperity rises. The real problem Britain has is that electricity prices are so high that many citizens do not have any money left over to spend on discretionary items. Furthermore, with the British pound at a 37-year low to the U.S. dollar, everything Britain imports is now more expensive, so inflation is running much hotter there than in the U.S., which is why the Bank of England keeps raising its key interest rates.

I wish Liz Truss well. If she can get the British economy moving, she could go down in history as Britain’s greatest Prime Ministers since Margaret Thatcher, who is Truss’ political hero. Since Britain is supplying military aid to Ukraine, Prime Minister Truss’ rhetoric against Vladimir Putin is very assertive. I should add that since Britain was less dependent on Russia energy, Prime Minister Truss can be more assertive against Russia and may become the face of European opposition again Russian aggression. One good thing that Prime Minister Truss announced on Thursday is that she wants to license new North Sea oil and gas projects as well as end fracking bans to try to make Britain more energy independent.

The other interesting news in Europe is that EU energy ministers are now debating capping energy prices to squelch soaring electricity prices. Germany has already imposed windfall profit taxes on electricity prices. France is normally an electricity exporter due to its vast network of nuclear plants, but low water levels on rivers from the summer drought forced France to import electricity. A French official said that it might be better to have different caps on electricity depending on the technology used to generate power, saying, “The value generated by a French nuclear plant isn’t the same as the value created by a German lignite plant or a Spanish wind turbine.” In other words, it may soon be every country for itself, and caps may not work out. In the meantime, all this talk about price caps helps boost fossil fuel prices near-term.

The U.S. Economic News is Finally Beginning to Pick Up Again

The economic news last week was encouraging. The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) on Tuesday announced that its non-manufacturing (service) index rose to 56.9 in August, up from 55.1 in July. The various components were encouraging, such as business activity rising to 60.9 (from 59.9 in August) and new orders reaching 61.8 (from 59.9 in August), as 14 of the 16 industries reported expanding in August.

On Wednesday, the Commerce Department announced that the U.S. trade deficit declined a whopping 12.6% in July as exports rose 0.2% to $259.29 billion and imports declined 2.9% to $329.94 billion. Although declining imports could be a sign of waning consumer demand, the fact that the trade deficit has shrunk for the past four months is contributing to a stronger U.S. dollar as well as to better GDP growth.

I should add that the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model is estimating 1.3% annual GDP growth in the third quarter, down from its previous estimate of 1.4% growth. The Atlanta Fed is now about in the middle range of most economists’ private estimates, which range between 0.5% to 2.6% annual GDP growth.

Also on Wednesday, the Labor Department announced that jobless claims in the latest week declined to 222,000 vs. a revised 228,000 in the previous week. Continuing jobless claims declined to 1.415 million, down from 1.438 million in the previous week. New claims for unemployment are now running at a 3-month low and the 4-week moving average has declined to 233,000. So job market is improving.

The Fed’s Beige Book survey was released on Wednesday in preparation for the September 21 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. It was essentially a buzzkill. Specifically, the Beige Book survey uses “Fedspeak” to cloud the picture. Although it acknowledges that inflation is beginning to fade, inflation “remained elevated.” The Beige Book survey also said that, “Overall labor market conditions remained tight,” adding that supply-chain disruptions “continued to hamper production.” Overall, the Beige Book survey said that the outlook for the U.S. economy over the next year “remained generally weak,” so I expect this language will push the Fed to make one last large rate hike on September 21st.

Also, the European Central Bank (ECB) is beginning to complete with the dollar on the interest rate front. Last Thursday, the ECB raised its key interest rate from 0% to 0.75% in a desperate attempt to fight inflation. Since 2012, the ECB has set its key rates at -0.5% to zero, so the era of negative to flat interest rates is finally over. The ECB also pioneered Modern Monetary Theory (MMT), which is unlimited money printing, which is also now over. Looking forward, the ECB said it expected to raise key interest rates further and their future key rate decisions would be “data dependent,” which is considered dovish language in the U.S., but in Europe these words are causing more uncertainty, since inflation is running much hotter due to energy shortages. The euro briefly rose above parity to the U.S. dollar after the ECB rate hike, so it appears that a currency war may be brewing, since the weak euro is a big inflation catalyst.

In business news, Apple announced the iPhone 14 on Wednesday, and that helped boost the entire tech sector, with NASDAQ rising over 4% last week. Obviously, many people spend more time on their phones than with their spouses or family, so I expect that many iPhone users will upgrade to the iPhone 14. Also, Apple is diversifying its manufacturing base from China to India (for iPhone) and Vietnam (for iWatch and Mac computers), so I will be very curious to see how fast iPhone 14 delivery will take.

Navellier & Associates owns Enphase Energy, Inc. (ENPH), Apple Computer (AAPL), Ford Motors (F), and in a few accounts, Tesla (TSLA), per client request in managed accounts. We do not own General Motors (GM), Lucid Group (LCID) or Rivian Automotive (RIVN). Louis Navellier and his family own Apple Computer (AAPL) and Enphase Energy, Inc. (ENPH), in a personal account and Enphase Energy, Inc. (ENPH), Apple Computer (AAPL), Ford Motors (F), via a Navellier managed account. He does not own Tesla (TSLA), General Motors (GM), Lucid Group (LCID), or Rivian Automotive (RIVN) personally.

All content above represents the opinion of Louis Navellier of Navellier & Associates, Inc.

Please see important disclosures below.

About The Author

Louis Navellier

Louis Navellier is Founder, Chairman of the Board, Chief Investment Officer and Chief Compliance Officer of Navellier & Associates, Inc., located in Reno, Nevada. With decades of experience translating what had been purely academic techniques into real market applications, he believes that disciplined, quantitative analysis can select stocks that will significantly outperform the overall market. All content in this “A Look Ahead” section of Market Mail represents the opinion of Louis Navellier of Navellier & Associates, Inc.

Important Disclosures:

Although information in these reports has been obtained from and is based upon sources that Navellier believes to be reliable, Navellier does not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute Navellier’s judgment as of the date the report was created and are subject to change without notice. These reports are for informational purposes only and are not a solicitation for the purchase or sale of a security. Any decision to purchase securities mentioned in these reports must take into account existing public information on such securities or any registered prospectus.To the extent permitted by law, neither Navellier & Associates, Inc., nor any of its affiliates, agents, or service providers assumes any liability or responsibility nor owes any duty of care for any consequences of any person acting or refraining to act in reliance on the information contained in this communication or for any decision based on it.

Past performance is no indication of future results. Investment in securities involves significant risk and has the potential for partial or complete loss of funds invested. It should not be assumed that any securities recommendations made by Navellier. in the future will be profitable or equal the performance of securities made in this report. Dividend payments are not guaranteed. The amount of a dividend payment, if any, can vary over time and issuers may reduce dividends paid on securities in the event of a recession or adverse event affecting a specific industry or issuer.

None of the stock information, data, and company information presented herein constitutes a recommendation by Navellier or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Any specific securities identified and described do not represent all of the securities purchased, sold, or recommended for advisory clients. The holdings identified do not represent all of the securities purchased, sold, or recommended for advisory clients and the reader should not assume that investments in the securities identified and discussed were or will be profitable.

Information presented is general information that does not take into account your individual circumstances, financial situation, or needs, nor does it present a personalized recommendation to you. Individual stocks presented may not be suitable for every investor. Investment in securities involves significant risk and has the potential for partial or complete loss of funds invested. Investment in fixed income securities has the potential for the investment return and principal value of an investment to fluctuate so that an investor’s holdings, when redeemed, may be worth less than their original cost.

One cannot invest directly in an index. Index is unmanaged and index performance does not reflect deduction of fees, expenses, or taxes. Presentation of Index data does not reflect a belief by Navellier that any stock index constitutes an investment alternative to any Navellier equity strategy or is necessarily comparable to such strategies. Among the most important differences between the Indices and Navellier strategies are that the Navellier equity strategies may (1) incur material management fees, (2) concentrate its investments in relatively few stocks, industries, or sectors, (3) have significantly greater trading activity and related costs, and (4) be significantly more or less volatile than the Indices.

ETF Risk: We may invest in exchange traded funds (“ETFs”) and some of our investment strategies are generally fully invested in ETFs. Like traditional mutual funds, ETFs charge asset-based fees, but they generally do not charge initial sales charges or redemption fees and investors typically pay only customary brokerage fees to buy and sell ETF shares. The fees and costs charged by ETFs held in client accounts will not be deducted from the compensation the client pays Navellier. ETF prices can fluctuate up or down, and a client account could lose money investing in an ETF if the prices of the securities owned by the ETF go down. ETFs are subject to additional risks:

  • ETF shares may trade above or below their net asset value;
  • An active trading market for an ETF’s shares may not develop or be maintained;
  • The value of an ETF may be more volatile than the underlying portfolio of securities the ETF is designed to track;
  • The cost of owning shares of the ETF may exceed those a client would incur by directly investing in the underlying securities; and
  • Trading of an ETF’s shares may be halted if the listing exchange’s officials deem it appropriate, the shares are delisted from the exchange, or the activation of market-wide “circuit breakers” (which are tied to large decreases in stock prices) halts stock trading generally.

Grader Disclosures: Investment in equity strategies involves substantial risk and has the potential for partial or complete loss of funds invested. The sample portfolio and any accompanying charts are for informational purposes only and are not to be construed as a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument and should not be relied upon as the sole factor in an investment making decision. As a matter of normal and important disclosures to you, as a potential investor, please consider the following: The performance presented is not based on any actual securities trading, portfolio, or accounts, and the reported performance of the A, B, C, D, and F portfolios (collectively the “model portfolios”) should be considered mere “paper” or pro forma performance results based on Navellier’s research.

Investors evaluating any of Navellier & Associates, Inc.’s, (or its affiliates’) Investment Products must not use any information presented here, including the performance figures of the model portfolios, in their evaluation of any Navellier Investment Products. Navellier Investment Products include the firm’s mutual funds and managed accounts. The model portfolios, charts, and other information presented do not represent actual funded trades and are not actual funded portfolios. There are material differences between Navellier Investment Products’ portfolios and the model portfolios, research, and performance figures presented here. The model portfolios and the research results (1) may contain stocks or ETFs that are illiquid and difficult to trade; (2) may contain stock or ETF holdings materially different from actual funded Navellier Investment Product portfolios; (3) include the reinvestment of all dividends and other earnings, estimated trading costs, commissions, or management fees; and, (4) may not reflect prices obtained in an actual funded Navellier Investment Product portfolio. For these and other reasons, the reported performances of model portfolios do not reflect the performance results of Navellier’s actually funded and traded Investment Products. In most cases, Navellier’s Investment Products have materially lower performance results than the performances of the model portfolios presented.

This report contains statements that are, or may be considered to be, forward-looking statements. All statements that are not historical facts, including statements about our beliefs or expectations, are “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of The U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements may be identified by such forward-looking terminology as “expect,” “estimate,” “plan,” “intend,” “believe,” “anticipate,” “may,” “will,” “should,” “could,” “continue,” “project,” or similar statements or variations of such terms. Our forward-looking statements are based on a series of expectations, assumptions, and projections, are not guarantees of future results or performance, and involve substantial risks and uncertainty as described in Form ADV Part 2A of our filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), which is available at or by requesting a copy by emailing All of our forward-looking statements are as of the date of this report only. We can give no assurance that such expectations or forward-looking statements will prove to be correct. Actual results may differ materially. You are urged to carefully consider all such factors.

FEDERAL TAX ADVICE DISCLAIMER: As required by U.S. Treasury Regulations, you are informed that, to the extent this presentation includes any federal tax advice, the presentation is not written by Navellier to be used, and cannot be used, for the purpose of avoiding federal tax penalties. Navellier does not advise on any income tax requirements or issues. Use of any information presented by Navellier is for general information only and does not represent tax advice either express or implied. You are encouraged to seek professional tax advice for income tax questions and assistance.

IMPORTANT NEWSLETTER DISCLOSURE:The hypothetical performance results for investment newsletters that are authored or edited by Louis Navellier, including Louis Navellier’s Growth Investor, Louis Navellier’s Breakthrough Stocks, Louis Navellier’s Accelerated Profits, and Louis Navellier’s Platinum Club, are not based on any actual securities trading, portfolio, or accounts, and the newsletters’ reported hypothetical performances should be considered mere “paper” or proforma hypothetical performance results and are not actual performance of real world trades.  Navellier & Associates, Inc. does not have any relation to or affiliation with the owner of these newsletters. There are material differences between Navellier Investment Products’ portfolios and the InvestorPlace Media, LLC newsletter portfolios authored by Louis Navellier. The InvestorPlace Media, LLC newsletters contain hypothetical performance that do not include transaction costs, advisory fees, or other fees a client might incur if actual investments and trades were being made by an investor. As a result, newsletter performance should not be used to evaluate Navellier Investment services which are separate and different from the newsletters. The owner of the newsletters is InvestorPlace Media, LLC and any questions concerning the newsletters, including any newsletter advertising or hypothetical Newsletter performance claims, (which are calculated solely by Investor Place Media and not Navellier) should be referred to InvestorPlace Media, LLC at (800) 718-8289.

Please note that Navellier & Associates and the Navellier Private Client Group are managed completely independent of the newsletters owned and published by InvestorPlace Media, LLC and written and edited by Louis Navellier, and investment performance of the newsletters should in no way be considered indicative of potential future investment performance for any Navellier & Associates separately managed account portfolio. Potential investors should consult with their financial advisor before investing in any Navellier Investment Product.

Navellier claims compliance with Global Investment Performance Standards (GIPS). To receive a complete list and descriptions of Navellier’s composites and/or a presentation that adheres to the GIPS standards, please contact Navellier or click here. It should not be assumed that any securities recommendations made by Navellier & Associates, Inc. in the future will be profitable or equal the performance of securities made in this report.

FactSet Disclosure: Navellier does not independently calculate the statistical information included in the attached report. The calculation and the information are provided by FactSet, a company not related to Navellier. Although information contained in the report has been obtained from FactSet and is based on sources Navellier believes to be reliable, Navellier does not guarantee its accuracy, and it may be incomplete or condensed. The report and the related FactSet sourced information are provided on an “as is” basis. The user assumes the entire risk of any use made of this information. Investors should consider the report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. The report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of a security. FactSet sourced information is the exclusive property of FactSet. Without prior written permission of FactSet, this information may not be reproduced, disseminated or used to create any financial products. All indices are unmanaged and performance of the indices include reinvestment of dividends and interest income, unless otherwise noted, are not illustrative of any particular investment and an investment cannot be made in any index. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.