by Louis Navellier

June 9, 2020

Reno Arch Image

I must say that we had a rude awaking early last week when our office in downtown Reno was blocked off as protestors descended on downtown Reno. Antifa, or some other well-organized violent cabal, had conveniently placed a palette of bricks nearby, which they grabbed to smash the entrance to City Hall, the County Courthouse, the Federal Courthouse, multiple banks, and the Starbucks behind our office building.

In addition, an ATM was torn out of the wall from a Wells Fargo bank down the street, and a Patagonia store was smashed and looted.  Spray-painted graffiti was everywhere, including on our office building. 

When the combined forces of the Reno police, Washoe County Sherriff, and Nevada Highway Patrol were not able to fully contain the crowd, the Nevada National Guard was promptly called in to squelch the protests and vandalism, and then a curfew was imposed.  As it turns out, some of the protesters arrested were from out of state.  In the end, Antifa apparently instigated the violence and “spontaneous” looting.

I am originally from Berkeley, California, where Antifa routinely likes to intimidate speakers at the UC Berkeley campus, squelching the “free speech” that Berkeley once promoted. I must say I am shocked that Antifa has expanded to Reno, but I suspect that due to the swift response by local authorities bringing in the Nevada National Guard, Antifa will think twice about instigating violence in northern Nevada again.

Most Economic Indicators Continue to Recover

In addition to the shockingly positive jobs report on Friday, we saw marginal improvement in most other indicators last week. The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) rose to 43.1 in May, up from 41.5 in April – which was the lowest reading in 11 years. Still, 12 of the 18 industries surveyed contracted in May, and any reading below 50 signals a contraction, so the manufacturing index must continue to rise. The good news is that the sub-indexes for new orders, production, and employment all improved in May.

On Wednesday, ISM reported that its non-manufacturing (service) index rose to 45.4 in May, up from 41.8 in April.  The new orders and production components both rebounded, which is a promising sign. Of the 18 service industries ISM surveyed, 14 reported a contraction. Since the service sector now contributes 80% of GDP growth, continued improvement in the service sector is imperative!

Now, we must turn to the cloudy jobs picture, since the ADP report on Wednesday announced that 2.76 million private payroll jobs were lost in May.  Although this sounds truly horrible, economists were expecting 8.66 million jobs to be lost in May, so the ADP report was considered very promising!  Overall, the ADP report signaled that workers may be being rehired faster than economists previously estimated, but the fact that ADP and the Labor Department diverged by 5.27 million jobs in May is truly shocking.

Overall, the May jobs situation was encouraging, but it is crucial that ADP job totals more closely match the payroll report in upcoming months to reassure investors that a robust economic recovery is underway.

On Thursday, the Labor Department reported that new jobless claims declined to 1.88 million. Another 623,000 independent contractors filed for relief under a new federal relief program. In the last three months, over 47 million workers and independent contractors have filed for jobless claims, so the weekly jobless claims will continue to be the most critical indicator of whether the U.S. economy is recovering.

All content above represents the opinion of Louis Navellier of Navellier & Associates, Inc.

Please see important disclosures below.

Also In This Issue

Global Mail by Ivan Martchev
The Countless Asterisks in the Non-Farm Payroll Report

Sector Spotlight by Jason Bodner
After Record-Setting Buying, The Top May Be Near

View Full Archive
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Louis Navellier
CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER

Louis Navellier is Founder, Chairman of the Board, Chief Investment Officer and Chief Compliance Officer of Navellier & Associates, Inc., located in Reno, Nevada. With decades of experience translating what had been purely academic techniques into real market applications, he believes that disciplined, quantitative analysis can select stocks that will significantly outperform the overall market. All content in this “A Look Ahead” section of Market Mail represents the opinion of Louis Navellier of Navellier & Associates, Inc.

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