by Jason Bodner

April 4, 2023

Question: If, five years ago, I had asked you to choose which of two options would more likely cause a long-term market meltdown – which would it be?

  1. Persistent inflation and uncertainty over interest rates? Or-
  2. A come-from-nowhere deadly virus that threatened to wipe out half of humanity?

Call me crazy, but I would have said “2,” but here we are: The investment and economic landscape looks worse in 2022-23 than in the month-long market crash of March 2020, after which we saw stocks soar.

Life is stranger than fiction. Things never cease to amaze me. For instance, caffeine doesn’t actually give you energy. Caffeine interacts with adenosine in your brain and tricks you into thinking you’re not tired.

With that in mind, grab a cup and perk up, because I’m about to talk about economic headwinds and why investor grumpiness may be compounding a fixable issue. More importantly, we’ll discuss the actual data.

Markets have been bipolar for over a year now, due to a host of unforeseen events. A short recap:

  • Things got ugly for tech stocks in November of 2021.
  • Stocks in general began to sag in the beginning of 2022.
  • Things intensified in the spring with a margin unwind (leveraged bets), forcing prices even lower.
  • Crypto got clocked with the de-pegging of Terra Luna, causing a crisis of confidence.
  • That crisis intensified when FTX collapsed and was exposed as possibly the largest fraud yet.
  • All the while, the Fed aggressively hiked rates at the fastest pace in history.

Major indexes fell as much as 25% (S&P 500) to 35% (NASDAQ). Despite this, we hoped for either a soft-landing or the avoidance of recession. Unlikely as it may seem, Fed chair Jerome Powell still sees a path to a soft-landing “difficult.”  Just to remind you, all these “difficulties” we feel in terms of inflation, less disposable income, and sagging investments are happening well after COVID-19 threatened to kill us.

Recent price fluctuations are due to a push-and-pull outlook between Powell and Yellen. Last week, the FOMC decision to raise the target rate 0.25% caused stocks to cheer. Powell reiterated the strength and soundness of the U.S. banking system. However, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said that there is no specific consideration to guarantee all deposits at this time, so stocks then reversed and sagged.

This typifies the landscape we face today… a volatile, unpredictable, and skittish one. In that light, I think it’s important to discuss market mechanics quickly, to put these volatile swings in further context:

In normal (good) times, there is an inherent underlying bid for stocks. Bull markets rise over a long period of time because of one simple reason: Buying pressure outweighs selling. Sure, markets pull back and even feel scary at times, but invariably they will recover, and the bull market remains intact. That’s because there are many investors who have medium- and long-term confidence in the strength of stocks.

But when the bear claws come out, things feel different. Investors clamor for cash. They prefer to sit out the risk of the market and wait. That clears the road of what I call baseline liquidity – the inherent bid in most markets. When buyers pause – for however long – markets get more volatile. That’s where we are today, in a headline driven whipsaw atmosphere where it’s hard to determine what tomorrow brings.

In fact, according to this chart, cash is at its highest levels since COVID (thank you Alec Young!):

Sideline Cash Chart

Graphs are for illustrative and discussion purposes only. Please read important disclosures at the end of this commentary.

That’s very bullish! And we also see that echoed in some of the unique data that I look at. The Big Money Index (BMI) measures all unusual buying and selling over a 25-day moving average. When the BMI is rising, buyers have control. If it is falling, sellers took the wheel. If it rises above 80%, it is overbought, and we can expect near-term weakness when it falls from overbought. If it falls below 25%, it is oversold, and we can expect a near-term reversion higher for stocks. The BMI fell from overbought in February. Markets fell, and now the BMI hovers just over oversold. (It hit 29% only to bounce to 33%).

Big Money Index Chart

Graphs are for illustrative and discussion purposes only. Please read important disclosures at the end of this commentary.

The reason? Selling suddenly vanished as you can see here with the red bars diminishing lately:

Big Money Buys-Sells Chart

Graphs are for illustrative and discussion purposes only. Please read important disclosures at the end of this commentary.

We have proactive action guaranteeing deposits of failed tech and crypto-friendly banks to thank for that. We also have further clarity on interest rates and a lower than originally expected rate-hike.

Is this a pause before we drop? Or the beginning of another leg higher?

I am inclined to say the latter. The data indicates a slowing in selling and potential for buying if Q1 earnings start out surprisingly pleasant (which has been the trend). Also, the market has been in a new uptrend since October. The SPY (S&P 500 tracking ETF) has made higher highs, and higher lows.

As this chart shows, we are currently in the lower part of an up-trending channel:

Big Money Index Chart 2

Graphs are for illustrative and discussion purposes only. Please read important disclosures at the end of this commentary.

I believe there will be just one more 0.25% hike – if that. Then we should enter a coasting period. That likely means the back half of the year will see material market improvement and lower volatility.

Naturally, I could be wrong.

Here’s Why The “News” Doesn’t Matter

I use a statistical quantitative approach to analyzing stocks. I don’t use “my gut” … meaning emotions, mood swings, euphoria, fear, anxiety, sadness, guilt, or how much I love to pick stocks. I look for big institutional support of the stocks with the best quality fundamentals and technicals. When those get scooped, odds are they will rise higher, regardless of what Russia, the Fed, COVID, or inflation does.

There are always stocks that go up, and the big money usually illuminates which ones. Right now, Tech, Discretionary, and Industrials lead while Communications, Financials, and Real Estate lag:

Sector Rank Table

Graphs are for illustrative and discussion purposes only. Please read important disclosures at the end of this commentary.

It may not be popular, but I’m feeling positive and optimistic. Regardless, I learned long ago that what I feel has nothing to do with it. As the engineer and management consultant W. Edwards Deming put it, “Without data you’re just another person with an opinion.”

All content above represents the opinion of Jason Bodner of Navellier & Associates, Inc.

Please see important disclosures below.

Also In This Issue

Global Mail by Ivan Martchev
Temporary Good News on the Banking Front

Sector Spotlight by Jason Bodner
Are We on The Edge of a Market Precipice?

View Full Archive
Read Past Issues Here

About The Author

Jason Bodner
MARKETMAIL EDITOR FOR SECTOR SPOTLIGHT

Jason Bodner writes Sector Spotlight in the weekly Marketmail publication and has authored several white papers for the company. He is also Co-Founder of Macro Analytics for Professionals which produces proprietary equity accumulation/distribution research for its clients. Previously, Mr. Bodner served as Director of European Equity Derivatives for Cantor Fitzgerald Europe in London, then moved to the role of Head of Equity Derivatives North America for the same company in New York. He also served as S.V.P. Equity Derivatives for Jefferies, LLC. He received a B.S. in business administration in 1996, with honors, from Skidmore College as a member of the Periclean Honors Society. All content of “Sector Spotlight” represents the opinion of Jason Bodner

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Jason Bodner is a co-founder and co-owner of Mapsignals. Mr. Bodner is an independent contractor who is occasionally hired by Navellier & Associates to write an article and or provide opinions for possible use in articles that appear in Navellier & Associates weekly Market Mail. Mr. Bodner is not employed or affiliated with Louis Navellier, Navellier & Associates, Inc., or any other Navellier owned entity. The opinions and statements made here are those of Mr. Bodner and not necessarily those of any other persons or entities. This is not an endorsement, or solicitation or testimonial or investment advice regarding the BMI Index or any statements or recommendations or analysis in the article or the BMI Index or Mapsignals or its products or strategies.

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