by Jason Bodner

March 23, 2021

I catch flack if I don’t pick up my phone when it’s incessantly ringing. That’s because I get very focused on what I’m doing, so I often just let the phone go to voicemail. Still, just the annoying buzz-buzz of the phone vibrating is enough to sometimes derail my thoughts. Even though friends and family get annoyed when I don’t pick up the phone, my decision is well justified. I just found out that “interruption science” research found that it takes an average 25 minutes to regain focus after being interrupted by a phone call.

In this modern distracted world, it’s tough to focus, but when it comes to stocks, that world is a vast ocean of distraction. Everyday price action alone can be enough to switch people from happy-face to frowny-face. Last week was no exception. Stocks were up and down, and heads were scratched while nerves were tested, but if we can let the metaphorical phone just ring and ring, we can focus on what’s really going on.

Let’s start with tech stocks. Why? Because the tech sector has been punished since February. I will use QQQ as our baseline – that’s the NASDAQ tracking ETF. QQQ peaked February 12th at $336.45. It proceeded to fall 10.85% to trough out at $299.94 on March 8th. That was enough to officially push the QQQ into “correction” territory, which lasted for the grand sum of one day.

QQQ Graph

Graphs are for illustrative and discussion purposes only. Please read important disclosures at the end of this commentary.

Last week saw the Qs end the week at -0.68%. But it was bumpy, climbing 2% Monday to Wednesday only to fall -3% on Thursday and then regain some ground on Friday.

QQQ Graph-Bars

Graphs are for illustrative and discussion purposes only. Please read important disclosures at the end of this commentary.

So, the question pops up: Are we headed lower? Emotionally, this kind of price action doesn’t inspire much confidence, but let’s not get distracted by the phone ringing: What does the data say?

The first thing I noticed looking at QQQ was this: Since Jan 1st, 2021, there were 11 days where volume was 1.5 times the 20-day Average Daily Volume (ADV) of 77 million shares. Looking at 20 trading days (about one month) of average volume gives us a yardstick to compare trading days. Of those 11 high-volume days, eight were down days and three were up. The average return was -1.21%. Included were:

  • 1/27 -2.79%
  • 1/29 -2.10%
  • 2/25 -3.49%
  • 3/3  – 2.90%
  • 3/4  – 1.64%

Thursday’s -3.06% volume only equaled the 20-day ADV. This is important because when markets crack, they typically do so on BIG volume, like the 150% days detailed above. In fairness, the QQQs are not indicative of the overall market. But it does say Thursday’s ugly price action on the Qs – where the pain was – was not particularly impressive. It was “average,” at best. If we were to retest the lows, we would need to see bigger volumes. This action indicates to me that we are in a volatile period.

When earnings season dies down, the winds pick up before the next earnings season comes, which is still a few weeks away. There are fewer meaningful catalysts, and trading typically becomes choppy. And when earnings resume, we can expect to see stellar year-over-year comparisons.

What does the Big Money data say? First, let’s look at Big Money buy and sell signals since February 1st. Two weeks later, stock prices deteriorated, primarily in the NASDAQ. The S&P 500 and Russell 2000 performed reasonably well in the “tech-wreck.” When we look at Big Money buying and selling, we see that the weather was sunny. In the table below, I highlighted in green the days where net buying was greater than selling, and I highlighted in red the days where net selling was greater than buying. The yellow highlights are days where net buying over selling was less than 70%. All this really tells us is that despite some volatile price action the buyers are still overwhelmingly in the majority:


Graphs are for illustrative and discussion purposes only. Please read important disclosures at the end of this commentary.

These signals are major components of the Big Money Index (BMI), which fell from overbought. But as we can see, it was not due to monster selling. It was due to just a little selling finally showing up. Markets were so overbought for so long, because no selling was being registered at all. The recent uptick in selling was all it took to push the BMI out of overbought. Now, it is stabilizing and moving sideways short term.

MAPSignals Big Money Index

Graphs are for illustrative and discussion purposes only. Please read important disclosures at the end of this commentary.

The market’s price action itself is the phone ringing here. We hear it, we know someone’s calling, but the data says it’s not as important as focusing on the real picture: There’s buying happening.

The reality here is that we hit a bumpy patch between earnings seasons. The reopen trade is alive and well. Vaccinations are happening at lightning speed. There is plenty of pent-up demand in an economy which should fuel job-growth and discretionary spending. Tech companies are getting punished, but these are where the “juice” is in terms of fundamentals. Look at this FactSet chart of companies within the S&P 500 that have positive guidance over negative. See a positive outlier here? I do: Tech. Number of S&P 500

Graphs are for illustrative and discussion purposes only. Please read important disclosures at the end of this commentary.

Here’s the bottom line: I try not to get distracted by the noisy chaos of the market and the media. By quietly and methodically measuring what Big Money is doing, I hope to get a clear picture, even in the dark. It’s kind of like my own personal radar or sonar. The data says to me that lows have been put in and there is real buying taking place. After all, the tech stock market corrected officially for only one day.

In reality, overbought markets eventually need to pull back. We saw some give-back in between earnings seasons. The data says buying under the surface should power us higher in the coming weeks. I have been using these pressure points to buy great stocks at favorable prices.

We have oodles of things to fixate and focus on, especially when it comes to stocks. If I let my emotions get to me, I’d focus on all of them and get nowhere. Instead, when it comes to stocks, I focus only on data. As George Lucas said: “Always remember, your focus determines your reality.”

All content above represents the opinion of Jason Bodner of Navellier & Associates, Inc.

Please see important disclosures below.

Also In This Issue

A Look Ahead by Louis Navellier
Inflation Fears Continue to Mount

Income Mail by Bryan Perry
Corporate Investment in Tech is Set to Surge In 2021

Growth Mail by Gary Alexander
Which is Scarier – A Market Meltdown, or a Melt-Up?

About The Author

Jason Bodner

Jason Bodner writes Sector Spotlight in the weekly Marketmail publication and has authored several white papers for the company. He is also Co-Founder of Macro Analytics for Professionals which produces proprietary equity accumulation/distribution research for its clients. Previously, Mr. Bodner served as Director of European Equity Derivatives for Cantor Fitzgerald Europe in London, then moved to the role of Head of Equity Derivatives North America for the same company in New York. He also served as S.V.P. Equity Derivatives for Jefferies, LLC. He received a B.S. in business administration in 1996, with honors, from Skidmore College as a member of the Periclean Honors Society. All content of “Sector Spotlight” represents the opinion of Jason Bodner

Important Disclosures:

Jason Bodner is a co-founder and co-owner of Mapsignals. Mr. Bodner is an independent contractor who is occasionally hired by Navellier & Associates to write an article and or provide opinions for possible use in articles that appear in Navellier & Associates weekly Market Mail. Mr. Bodner is not employed or affiliated with Louis Navellier, Navellier & Associates, Inc., or any other Navellier owned entity. The opinions and statements made here are those of Mr. Bodner and not necessarily those of any other persons or entities. This is not an endorsement, or solicitation or testimonial or investment advice regarding the BMI Index or any statements or recommendations or analysis in the article or the BMI Index or Mapsignals or its products or strategies.

Although information in these reports has been obtained from and is based upon sources that Navellier believes to be reliable, Navellier does not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute Navellier’s judgment as of the date the report was created and are subject to change without notice. These reports are for informational purposes only and are not a solicitation for the purchase or sale of a security. Any decision to purchase securities mentioned in these reports must take into account existing public information on such securities or any registered prospectus.To the extent permitted by law, neither Navellier & Associates, Inc., nor any of its affiliates, agents, or service providers assumes any liability or responsibility nor owes any duty of care for any consequences of any person acting or refraining to act in reliance on the information contained in this communication or for any decision based on it.

Past performance is no indication of future results. Investment in securities involves significant risk and has the potential for partial or complete loss of funds invested. It should not be assumed that any securities recommendations made by Navellier. in the future will be profitable or equal the performance of securities made in this report. Dividend payments are not guaranteed. The amount of a dividend payment, if any, can vary over time and issuers may reduce dividends paid on securities in the event of a recession or adverse event affecting a specific industry or issuer.

None of the stock information, data, and company information presented herein constitutes a recommendation by Navellier or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Any specific securities identified and described do not represent all of the securities purchased, sold, or recommended for advisory clients. The holdings identified do not represent all of the securities purchased, sold, or recommended for advisory clients and the reader should not assume that investments in the securities identified and discussed were or will be profitable.

Information presented is general information that does not take into account your individual circumstances, financial situation, or needs, nor does it present a personalized recommendation to you. Individual stocks presented may not be suitable for every investor. Investment in securities involves significant risk and has the potential for partial or complete loss of funds invested. Investment in fixed income securities has the potential for the investment return and principal value of an investment to fluctuate so that an investor’s holdings, when redeemed, may be worth less than their original cost.

One cannot invest directly in an index. Index is unmanaged and index performance does not reflect deduction of fees, expenses, or taxes. Presentation of Index data does not reflect a belief by Navellier that any stock index constitutes an investment alternative to any Navellier equity strategy or is necessarily comparable to such strategies. Among the most important differences between the Indices and Navellier strategies are that the Navellier equity strategies may (1) incur material management fees, (2) concentrate its investments in relatively few stocks, industries, or sectors, (3) have significantly greater trading activity and related costs, and (4) be significantly more or less volatile than the Indices.

ETF Risk: We may invest in exchange traded funds (“ETFs”) and some of our investment strategies are generally fully invested in ETFs. Like traditional mutual funds, ETFs charge asset-based fees, but they generally do not charge initial sales charges or redemption fees and investors typically pay only customary brokerage fees to buy and sell ETF shares. The fees and costs charged by ETFs held in client accounts will not be deducted from the compensation the client pays Navellier. ETF prices can fluctuate up or down, and a client account could lose money investing in an ETF if the prices of the securities owned by the ETF go down. ETFs are subject to additional risks:

  • ETF shares may trade above or below their net asset value;
  • An active trading market for an ETF’s shares may not develop or be maintained;
  • The value of an ETF may be more volatile than the underlying portfolio of securities the ETF is designed to track;
  • The cost of owning shares of the ETF may exceed those a client would incur by directly investing in the underlying securities; and
  • Trading of an ETF’s shares may be halted if the listing exchange’s officials deem it appropriate, the shares are delisted from the exchange, or the activation of market-wide “circuit breakers” (which are tied to large decreases in stock prices) halts stock trading generally.

Grader Disclosures: Investment in equity strategies involves substantial risk and has the potential for partial or complete loss of funds invested. The sample portfolio and any accompanying charts are for informational purposes only and are not to be construed as a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument and should not be relied upon as the sole factor in an investment making decision. As a matter of normal and important disclosures to you, as a potential investor, please consider the following: The performance presented is not based on any actual securities trading, portfolio, or accounts, and the reported performance of the A, B, C, D, and F portfolios (collectively the “model portfolios”) should be considered mere “paper” or pro forma performance results based on Navellier’s research.

Investors evaluating any of Navellier & Associates, Inc.’s, (or its affiliates’) Investment Products must not use any information presented here, including the performance figures of the model portfolios, in their evaluation of any Navellier Investment Products. Navellier Investment Products include the firm’s mutual funds and managed accounts. The model portfolios, charts, and other information presented do not represent actual funded trades and are not actual funded portfolios. There are material differences between Navellier Investment Products’ portfolios and the model portfolios, research, and performance figures presented here. The model portfolios and the research results (1) may contain stocks or ETFs that are illiquid and difficult to trade; (2) may contain stock or ETF holdings materially different from actual funded Navellier Investment Product portfolios; (3) include the reinvestment of all dividends and other earnings, estimated trading costs, commissions, or management fees; and, (4) may not reflect prices obtained in an actual funded Navellier Investment Product portfolio. For these and other reasons, the reported performances of model portfolios do not reflect the performance results of Navellier’s actually funded and traded Investment Products. In most cases, Navellier’s Investment Products have materially lower performance results than the performances of the model portfolios presented.

This report contains statements that are, or may be considered to be, forward-looking statements. All statements that are not historical facts, including statements about our beliefs or expectations, are “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of The U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements may be identified by such forward-looking terminology as “expect,” “estimate,” “plan,” “intend,” “believe,” “anticipate,” “may,” “will,” “should,” “could,” “continue,” “project,” or similar statements or variations of such terms. Our forward-looking statements are based on a series of expectations, assumptions, and projections, are not guarantees of future results or performance, and involve substantial risks and uncertainty as described in Form ADV Part 2A of our filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), which is available at or by requesting a copy by emailing All of our forward-looking statements are as of the date of this report only. We can give no assurance that such expectations or forward-looking statements will prove to be correct. Actual results may differ materially. You are urged to carefully consider all such factors.

FEDERAL TAX ADVICE DISCLAIMER: As required by U.S. Treasury Regulations, you are informed that, to the extent this presentation includes any federal tax advice, the presentation is not written by Navellier to be used, and cannot be used, for the purpose of avoiding federal tax penalties. Navellier does not advise on any income tax requirements or issues. Use of any information presented by Navellier is for general information only and does not represent tax advice either express or implied. You are encouraged to seek professional tax advice for income tax questions and assistance.

IMPORTANT NEWSLETTER DISCLOSURE:The hypothetical performance results for investment newsletters that are authored or edited by Louis Navellier, including Louis Navellier’s Growth Investor, Louis Navellier’s Breakthrough Stocks, Louis Navellier’s Accelerated Profits, and Louis Navellier’s Platinum Club, are not based on any actual securities trading, portfolio, or accounts, and the newsletters’ reported hypothetical performances should be considered mere “paper” or proforma hypothetical performance results and are not actual performance of real world trades.  Navellier & Associates, Inc. does not have any relation to or affiliation with the owner of these newsletters. There are material differences between Navellier Investment Products’ portfolios and the InvestorPlace Media, LLC newsletter portfolios authored by Louis Navellier. The InvestorPlace Media, LLC newsletters contain hypothetical performance that do not include transaction costs, advisory fees, or other fees a client might incur if actual investments and trades were being made by an investor. As a result, newsletter performance should not be used to evaluate Navellier Investment services which are separate and different from the newsletters. The owner of the newsletters is InvestorPlace Media, LLC and any questions concerning the newsletters, including any newsletter advertising or hypothetical Newsletter performance claims, (which are calculated solely by Investor Place Media and not Navellier) should be referred to InvestorPlace Media, LLC at (800) 718-8289.

Please note that Navellier & Associates and the Navellier Private Client Group are managed completely independent of the newsletters owned and published by InvestorPlace Media, LLC and written and edited by Louis Navellier, and investment performance of the newsletters should in no way be considered indicative of potential future investment performance for any Navellier & Associates separately managed account portfolio. Potential investors should consult with their financial advisor before investing in any Navellier Investment Product.

Navellier claims compliance with Global Investment Performance Standards (GIPS). To receive a complete list and descriptions of Navellier’s composites and/or a presentation that adheres to the GIPS standards, please contact Navellier or click here. It should not be assumed that any securities recommendations made by Navellier & Associates, Inc. in the future will be profitable or equal the performance of securities made in this report.

FactSet Disclosure: Navellier does not independently calculate the statistical information included in the attached report. The calculation and the information are provided by FactSet, a company not related to Navellier. Although information contained in the report has been obtained from FactSet and is based on sources Navellier believes to be reliable, Navellier does not guarantee its accuracy, and it may be incomplete or condensed. The report and the related FactSet sourced information are provided on an “as is” basis. The user assumes the entire risk of any use made of this information. Investors should consider the report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. The report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of a security. FactSet sourced information is the exclusive property of FactSet. Without prior written permission of FactSet, this information may not be reproduced, disseminated or used to create any financial products. All indices are unmanaged and performance of the indices include reinvestment of dividends and interest income, unless otherwise noted, are not illustrative of any particular investment and an investment cannot be made in any index. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.