by Louis Navellier

January 12, 2021

Mar-a-Lago Palm Beach Resort Image

The political blame game will be endless and long lasting in the wake of the capitol siege. I suspect that after Joe Biden is sworn in as President, Donald Trump will subsequently re-emerge via Trump TV on Newsmax or another channel. The good news is that the stock market was not adversely impacted from the capitol siege. All the stock market wants is for this uncertainty to end, and that happened last week.

Late Wednesday night, the Senate reconvened and officially certified the electoral college vote. Vice President Mike Pence did his constitutional duty and oversaw the electoral college count. There have been multiple resignations of cabinet officers and White House and Capitol officials in the wake of the siege. An increasingly isolated President Trump finally committed to “an orderly transition” of power after Congress certified that Joe Biden won the Electoral College vote, so the end result is still less uncertainty.

In the midst of all this madness, I saw President Trump last week when my family had dinner at Mar-a-Lago. We were having drinks in the Library before dinner and President Trump was kind enough to come in and say hello. We had dinner two tables away from the President and the First Lady that night. Next to us was Judge Jeanine Pirro, Michael Lindell (the “My Pillow” guy), and Congressman Matt Gaetz (R-Fla). Donald Trump, Jr. and Kimberly Guilfoyle were also nearby, as was Tiffany Trump.

It is usually a bit of “Who’s Who?” at Mar-a-Lago but President Trump has always gone out of his way to be a gracious host. The highlight of the night was Matt Gaetz proposing to his fiancé, who said “yes” and then she relived the moment with Tiffany Trump. My youngest daughter and my son were quite shocked and surprised by how gracious President Trump was to his guests, and we enjoyed dining at Mar-a-Lago.

Outside the Beltway Drama, The Economy Hums Along

The economic news last week was mixed. Let’s start with the good news. The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) on Tuesday announced that the December ISM manufacturing index rose to 60.7, up from 57.5 in November. The new orders component was especially encouraging, rising to 67.9 in December, up from 65.1 in November. Also impressive was the production component, rising to 64.8 in December, up from 60.8 in November. A friend of mine who is a big automotive supplier recently mentioned that steel orders for the first quarter are up 21%. Due to strong automotive and construction demand, manufacturing clearly remains healthy. In fact, 16 of the 18 industries ISM surveyed improved.

The Commerce Department on Wednesday announced that factory orders rose 1% in November, the seventh straight monthly increase. Economists were expecting factory orders to rise just 0.8%, so this was a pleasant surprise. This is further proof that there is a manufacturing recovery underway.

The biggest news last week came in the employment sector. First, ADP reported on Wednesday that 123,000 private payrolls were lost in December, due largely to 105,000 service jobs being shed due largely to Covid-19 restrictions. This came as a big surprise, since economists were expecting 60,000 private payroll jobs to be created in December. Interestingly, medium sized businesses (50 to 499 employees) created 37,000 jobs in December, while small and large business shed jobs. This was the first decline in private sector jobs since last April, at the height of the first coronavirus lockdown.

Then, on Thursday, the Labor Department reported that weekly unemployment claims were 787,000, virtually the same as the revised 790,000 in the previous week. Continuing unemployment claims declined to 5.072 million compared to a revised 5.198 million in the previous week. Both weekly and continuing unemployment claims came in better than economists’ consensus estimate of 800,000 and 5.2 million, respectively. Overall, unemployment claims remain elevated due to the Covid-19 restrictions.

Then on Friday, the Labor Department announced that 140,000 payroll jobs were lost in December and that the unemployment rate remained at 6.7%. This was the first decline in payroll jobs in 8 months and a big surprise, since economists were expecting an increase in payroll jobs. Average hourly earnings increased by 0.8% or 23 cents to $29.81 in December and have risen a robust 5.1% in the past year, which is good news. The best news was that the October and November payrolls were revised up by 44,000 and 91,000 to 654,000 and 336,000, respectively – and December payrolls may be revised up later, as well.

Some of the lost jobs were the 45,000 government jobs lost in December, including many on the state and local level, so perhaps government budgets are now under increasing pressure from lost tax revenue due to the Covid-19 pandemic. In particular, 32,000 education jobs were lost, plus another 20,000 state and local jobs, while the federal government added 6,000 jobs in December. I should add that private education lost 63,000 jobs in December and has lost an amazing 450,000 jobs since February!

In other economic news, the Commerce Department reported on Thursday that the trade deficit soared 8% in November to $68.14 billion, which is the highest level in 14 years. The good news is that trade volume is rising. Imports increased 2.9% to $252.3 billion, while exports rose 1.8% to $184.2 billion. In November, imported consumer goods hit an all-time high as retailers added inventory for the holiday shopping season. In the third quarter, the trade deficit reduced overall U.S. GDP growth by 3.2%, and it appears that the fourth-quarter trade deficit’s negative impact on GDP is expected to be even larger.

Speaking of GDP, the Atlanta Fed lowered its fourth-quarter GDP estimate to an 8.6% annual pace, down from its previous estimate of a 10.4% annual pace. Lackluster retail sales, Covid-19 restrictions, and a growing trade deficit were largely responsible for this downward revision. Nonetheless, 8.6% GDP growth is still very positive and should continue in 2021 if Covid-19 restrictions are eventually lifted.

The Latest News on the Dollar, Treasury Bonds, and China Stocks

Yields on the 10-year Treasury bond rose from 0.935% to 1.12% last week, due largely to the perception that the Biden Administration would enact another stimulus package and substantially increase the U.S. federal budget deficit. As the 10-year Treasury bond yield rose last week, the U.S. dollar firmed up a bit, but the WSJ Dollar Index has declined 5.7% in the past 12 months as both the U.S. trade and budget deficits have soared!  The globalists that will be dominating the Biden Administration are anticipated to be much more friendly to China, so our Chinese stocks remain incredibly strong!

On Monday, the NYSE announced that it was delisting three large telecommunication Chinese ADRs with ties to the Chinese military due to an executive order from President Trump. Then abruptly on Monday night, the NYSE abruptly reversed its decision to delist these three Chinese telecommunication companies and said it, “no longer intends to move forward with the delisting action” after discussions with “relevant regulatory authorities.” Clearly, the NYSE is trying to run out the clock in hopes that a Biden Administration will reverse President Trump’s executive order. The NYSE also said, “At this time, the (ADR) Issuers will continue to be listed and traded on the NYSE.” Then abruptly on Wednesday, the NYSE did a U-turn and said it would delist these three large telecommunication Chinese ADRs after receiving new guidance from the Treasury Department. Clearly, President Trump is still in charge!

All content above represents the opinion of Louis Navellier of Navellier & Associates, Inc.

Please see important disclosures below.

Also In This Issue

Global Mail by Ivan Martchev
No Safe Haven Bid in the Treasury Market

Sector Spotlight by Jason Bodner
The S&P 500 Will Peak Within a Week

View Full Archive
Read Past Issues Here

About The Author

Louis Navellier

Louis Navellier is Founder, Chairman of the Board, Chief Investment Officer and Chief Compliance Officer of Navellier & Associates, Inc., located in Reno, Nevada. With decades of experience translating what had been purely academic techniques into real market applications, he believes that disciplined, quantitative analysis can select stocks that will significantly outperform the overall market. All content in this “A Look Ahead” section of Market Mail represents the opinion of Louis Navellier of Navellier & Associates, Inc.

Important Disclosures:

Although information in these reports has been obtained from and is based upon sources that Navellier believes to be reliable, Navellier does not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute Navellier’s judgment as of the date the report was created and are subject to change without notice. These reports are for informational purposes only and are not a solicitation for the purchase or sale of a security. Any decision to purchase securities mentioned in these reports must take into account existing public information on such securities or any registered prospectus.To the extent permitted by law, neither Navellier & Associates, Inc., nor any of its affiliates, agents, or service providers assumes any liability or responsibility nor owes any duty of care for any consequences of any person acting or refraining to act in reliance on the information contained in this communication or for any decision based on it.

Past performance is no indication of future results. Investment in securities involves significant risk and has the potential for partial or complete loss of funds invested. It should not be assumed that any securities recommendations made by Navellier. in the future will be profitable or equal the performance of securities made in this report. Dividend payments are not guaranteed. The amount of a dividend payment, if any, can vary over time and issuers may reduce dividends paid on securities in the event of a recession or adverse event affecting a specific industry or issuer.

None of the stock information, data, and company information presented herein constitutes a recommendation by Navellier or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Any specific securities identified and described do not represent all of the securities purchased, sold, or recommended for advisory clients. The holdings identified do not represent all of the securities purchased, sold, or recommended for advisory clients and the reader should not assume that investments in the securities identified and discussed were or will be profitable.

Information presented is general information that does not take into account your individual circumstances, financial situation, or needs, nor does it present a personalized recommendation to you. Individual stocks presented may not be suitable for every investor. Investment in securities involves significant risk and has the potential for partial or complete loss of funds invested. Investment in fixed income securities has the potential for the investment return and principal value of an investment to fluctuate so that an investor’s holdings, when redeemed, may be worth less than their original cost.

One cannot invest directly in an index. Index is unmanaged and index performance does not reflect deduction of fees, expenses, or taxes. Presentation of Index data does not reflect a belief by Navellier that any stock index constitutes an investment alternative to any Navellier equity strategy or is necessarily comparable to such strategies. Among the most important differences between the Indices and Navellier strategies are that the Navellier equity strategies may (1) incur material management fees, (2) concentrate its investments in relatively few stocks, industries, or sectors, (3) have significantly greater trading activity and related costs, and (4) be significantly more or less volatile than the Indices.

ETF Risk: We may invest in exchange traded funds (“ETFs”) and some of our investment strategies are generally fully invested in ETFs. Like traditional mutual funds, ETFs charge asset-based fees, but they generally do not charge initial sales charges or redemption fees and investors typically pay only customary brokerage fees to buy and sell ETF shares. The fees and costs charged by ETFs held in client accounts will not be deducted from the compensation the client pays Navellier. ETF prices can fluctuate up or down, and a client account could lose money investing in an ETF if the prices of the securities owned by the ETF go down. ETFs are subject to additional risks:

  • ETF shares may trade above or below their net asset value;
  • An active trading market for an ETF’s shares may not develop or be maintained;
  • The value of an ETF may be more volatile than the underlying portfolio of securities the ETF is designed to track;
  • The cost of owning shares of the ETF may exceed those a client would incur by directly investing in the underlying securities; and
  • Trading of an ETF’s shares may be halted if the listing exchange’s officials deem it appropriate, the shares are delisted from the exchange, or the activation of market-wide “circuit breakers” (which are tied to large decreases in stock prices) halts stock trading generally.

Grader Disclosures: Investment in equity strategies involves substantial risk and has the potential for partial or complete loss of funds invested. The sample portfolio and any accompanying charts are for informational purposes only and are not to be construed as a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument and should not be relied upon as the sole factor in an investment making decision. As a matter of normal and important disclosures to you, as a potential investor, please consider the following: The performance presented is not based on any actual securities trading, portfolio, or accounts, and the reported performance of the A, B, C, D, and F portfolios (collectively the “model portfolios”) should be considered mere “paper” or pro forma performance results based on Navellier’s research.

Investors evaluating any of Navellier & Associates, Inc.’s, (or its affiliates’) Investment Products must not use any information presented here, including the performance figures of the model portfolios, in their evaluation of any Navellier Investment Products. Navellier Investment Products include the firm’s mutual funds and managed accounts. The model portfolios, charts, and other information presented do not represent actual funded trades and are not actual funded portfolios. There are material differences between Navellier Investment Products’ portfolios and the model portfolios, research, and performance figures presented here. The model portfolios and the research results (1) may contain stocks or ETFs that are illiquid and difficult to trade; (2) may contain stock or ETF holdings materially different from actual funded Navellier Investment Product portfolios; (3) include the reinvestment of all dividends and other earnings, estimated trading costs, commissions, or management fees; and, (4) may not reflect prices obtained in an actual funded Navellier Investment Product portfolio. For these and other reasons, the reported performances of model portfolios do not reflect the performance results of Navellier’s actually funded and traded Investment Products. In most cases, Navellier’s Investment Products have materially lower performance results than the performances of the model portfolios presented.

This report contains statements that are, or may be considered to be, forward-looking statements. All statements that are not historical facts, including statements about our beliefs or expectations, are “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of The U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements may be identified by such forward-looking terminology as “expect,” “estimate,” “plan,” “intend,” “believe,” “anticipate,” “may,” “will,” “should,” “could,” “continue,” “project,” or similar statements or variations of such terms. Our forward-looking statements are based on a series of expectations, assumptions, and projections, are not guarantees of future results or performance, and involve substantial risks and uncertainty as described in Form ADV Part 2A of our filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), which is available at or by requesting a copy by emailing All of our forward-looking statements are as of the date of this report only. We can give no assurance that such expectations or forward-looking statements will prove to be correct. Actual results may differ materially. You are urged to carefully consider all such factors.

FEDERAL TAX ADVICE DISCLAIMER: As required by U.S. Treasury Regulations, you are informed that, to the extent this presentation includes any federal tax advice, the presentation is not written by Navellier to be used, and cannot be used, for the purpose of avoiding federal tax penalties. Navellier does not advise on any income tax requirements or issues. Use of any information presented by Navellier is for general information only and does not represent tax advice either express or implied. You are encouraged to seek professional tax advice for income tax questions and assistance.

IMPORTANT NEWSLETTER DISCLOSURE:The hypothetical performance results for investment newsletters that are authored or edited by Louis Navellier, including Louis Navellier’s Growth Investor, Louis Navellier’s Breakthrough Stocks, Louis Navellier’s Accelerated Profits, and Louis Navellier’s Platinum Club, are not based on any actual securities trading, portfolio, or accounts, and the newsletters’ reported hypothetical performances should be considered mere “paper” or proforma hypothetical performance results and are not actual performance of real world trades.  Navellier & Associates, Inc. does not have any relation to or affiliation with the owner of these newsletters. There are material differences between Navellier Investment Products’ portfolios and the InvestorPlace Media, LLC newsletter portfolios authored by Louis Navellier. The InvestorPlace Media, LLC newsletters contain hypothetical performance that do not include transaction costs, advisory fees, or other fees a client might incur if actual investments and trades were being made by an investor. As a result, newsletter performance should not be used to evaluate Navellier Investment services which are separate and different from the newsletters. The owner of the newsletters is InvestorPlace Media, LLC and any questions concerning the newsletters, including any newsletter advertising or hypothetical Newsletter performance claims, (which are calculated solely by Investor Place Media and not Navellier) should be referred to InvestorPlace Media, LLC at (800) 718-8289.

Please note that Navellier & Associates and the Navellier Private Client Group are managed completely independent of the newsletters owned and published by InvestorPlace Media, LLC and written and edited by Louis Navellier, and investment performance of the newsletters should in no way be considered indicative of potential future investment performance for any Navellier & Associates separately managed account portfolio. Potential investors should consult with their financial advisor before investing in any Navellier Investment Product.

Navellier claims compliance with Global Investment Performance Standards (GIPS). To receive a complete list and descriptions of Navellier’s composites and/or a presentation that adheres to the GIPS standards, please contact Navellier or click here. It should not be assumed that any securities recommendations made by Navellier & Associates, Inc. in the future will be profitable or equal the performance of securities made in this report.

FactSet Disclosure: Navellier does not independently calculate the statistical information included in the attached report. The calculation and the information are provided by FactSet, a company not related to Navellier. Although information contained in the report has been obtained from FactSet and is based on sources Navellier believes to be reliable, Navellier does not guarantee its accuracy, and it may be incomplete or condensed. The report and the related FactSet sourced information are provided on an “as is” basis. The user assumes the entire risk of any use made of this information. Investors should consider the report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. The report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of a security. FactSet sourced information is the exclusive property of FactSet. Without prior written permission of FactSet, this information may not be reproduced, disseminated or used to create any financial products. All indices are unmanaged and performance of the indices include reinvestment of dividends and interest income, unless otherwise noted, are not illustrative of any particular investment and an investment cannot be made in any index. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.